Public Debt Sustainability and the COVID Pandemic: The Case of Poland

Primary Balance, Including the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)

Variable	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Primary balance	0.6	−8.1	−2.4	−0.2	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8
Structural primary balancea	−2,7	−8,3	−2,9	−0,5	−0,6	−0,7	−0,7	−0,8	−0,8	−0,8	−0,8

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Actual Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)

Year	d*	dt – d*
2020	2.86	−10.96
2021	−1.93	−0.47

Initial no-Ponzi condition Including the Pandemic Effect

1a	2a	3a	4a
Actual	−14.40	−80.94	−95.35
Structural	−18.59	−103.69	−122.28

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Actual Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)

Year	d*	dt – d*
2020	−1.29	1.69
2021	−1.13	1.23

Public Debt in EU and in Poland: Quarterly Data, 2016–2020 (in % of GDP, Actual Level)

Period	EU	Poland
2016Q1	85.8	51.9
2016Q2	85.7	53.6
2016Q3	84.7	53.2
2016Q4	84.0	54.2
2017Q1	84.2	53.8
2017Q2	84.0	53.1
2017Q3	82.9	51.9
2017Q4	81.5	50.6
2018Q1	81.3	51.2
2018Q2	80.7	50.5
2018Q3	80.6	49.4
2018Q4	79.5	48.8
2019Q1	79.9	48.9
2019Q2	79.7	47.7
2019Q3	79.2	47.0
2019Q4	77.6	45.7
2020Q1	79.4	47.6
2020Q2	87.7	54.8
2020Q3	89.8	56.6
2020Q4	90.8	57.6

Primary Balance Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)

Variable	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Primary balance	0.6	0.4	0.1	−0.2	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8
Structural primary balancea	−0.5	−0.4	−0.5	−0.5	−0.6	−0.7	−0.7	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8	−0.8

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Structural Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)

Year	d*	dt – d*
2020	−1.52	1.12
2021	−1.31	0.81

Public Debt (in % of GDP) Excluding and Including the Pandemic Effect

Variable	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Gross public debt excluding the pandemic effect	48.3	47.4	46.3	45.9	45.9	45.9	46.1	46.4	46.8	47.3	48.0
Gross public debt including the pandemic effect	46.0	58.5	58.3	45.9	45.9	45.9	46.1	46.4	46.8	47.3	48.0

Initial no-Ponzi condition Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in% of GDP)

1a	2a	3a	4a
Actual	−3.75	−22.75	−26.50
Structural	−6.46	−37.56	−44.03

Official European Commission Predictions on Public Debt for 2020 and 2021 in Poland (Actual Data, in % of GDP)

Date of Publication	2020	2021
January 2020	45.,5	44.3
June 2020	58.5	58.3

Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Structural Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)

Year	d*	dt – d*
2020	−1.88	−6.42
2021	−1.65	−1.25