Public Debt Sustainability and the COVID Pandemic: The Case of Poland
and | May 20, 2022
About this article
Published Online: May 20, 2022
Page range: 68 - 75
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0005
Keywords
© 2022 Agnieszka Kłysik-Uryszek et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Primary Balance, Including the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)
| Primary balance | 0.6 | −8.1 | −2.4 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Structural primary balance |
−2,7 | −8,3 | −2,9 | −0,5 | −0,6 | −0,7 | −0,7 | −0,8 | −0,8 | −0,8 | −0,8 |
Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Actual Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)
| 2020 | 2.86 | −10.96 |
| 2021 | −1.93 | −0.47 |
Initial no-Ponzi condition Including the Pandemic Effect
| Actual | −14.40 | −80.94 | −95.35 |
| Structural | −18.59 | −103.69 | −122.28 |
Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Actual Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)
| 2020 | −1.29 | 1.69 |
| 2021 | −1.13 | 1.23 |
Public Debt in EU and in Poland: Quarterly Data, 2016–2020 (in % of GDP, Actual Level)
| 2016Q1 | 85.8 | 51.9 |
| 2016Q2 | 85.7 | 53.6 |
| 2016Q3 | 84.7 | 53.2 |
| 2016Q4 | 84.0 | 54.2 |
| 2017Q1 | 84.2 | 53.8 |
| 2017Q2 | 84.0 | 53.1 |
| 2017Q3 | 82.9 | 51.9 |
| 2017Q4 | 81.5 | 50.6 |
| 2018Q1 | 81.3 | 51.2 |
| 2018Q2 | 80.7 | 50.5 |
| 2018Q3 | 80.6 | 49.4 |
| 2018Q4 | 79.5 | 48.8 |
| 2019Q1 | 79.9 | 48.9 |
| 2019Q2 | 79.7 | 47.7 |
| 2019Q3 | 79.2 | 47.0 |
| 2019Q4 | 77.6 | 45.7 |
| 2020Q1 | 79.4 | 47.6 |
| 2020Q2 | 87.7 | 54.8 |
| 2020Q3 | 89.8 | 56.6 |
| 2020Q4 | 90.8 | 57.6 |
Primary Balance Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in % of GDP)
| Primary balance | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | −0.2 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Structural primary balance |
−0.5 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
Primary Tax Gap Indicator Values – Structural Level of Data (Excluding the Pandemic)
| 2020 | −1.52 | 1.12 |
| 2021 | −1.31 | 0.81 |
Public Debt (in % of GDP) Excluding and Including the Pandemic Effect
| Gross public debt excluding the pandemic effect | 48.3 | 47.4 | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 46.1 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 47.3 | 48.0 |
| Gross public debt including the pandemic effect | 46.0 | 58.5 | 58.3 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 45.9 | 46.1 | 46.4 | 46.8 | 47.3 | 48.0 |
Initial no-Ponzi condition Excluding the Pandemic Effect (in% of GDP)
| Actual | −3.75 | −22.75 | −26.50 |
| Structural | −6.46 | −37.56 | −44.03 |
Official European Commission Predictions on Public Debt for 2020 and 2021 in Poland (Actual Data, in % of GDP)
| January 2020 | 45.,5 | 44.3 |
| June 2020 | 58.5 | 58.3 |
Primary Tax Gap Indicator Outcomes – Structural Level of Data (Including the Pandemic Effect)
| 2020 | −1.88 | −6.42 |
| 2021 | −1.65 | −1.25 |