H points season | 0.016*** | 0.016*** | 0.016*** | 0.017*** | ||||
A points season | −0.016*** | −0.019*** | −0.018*** | −0.016*** | ||||
H points last 4 | 0.045*** | 0.043*** | 0.064*** | 0.040*** | ||||
A points last 4 | −0.061*** | −0.060*** | −0.067*** | −0.038*** | ||||
COVID period indicator | 0.027 | −0.007 | −0.252*** | −0.265*** | 0.025 | 0.009 | −0.102 | −0.141 |
weekend dummy | −0.023 | −0.074 | 0.014 | 0.034 | 0.011 | 0.005 | −0.027 | −0.019 |
Rest | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.003 | −0.007* | −0.001 | 0.000 | −0.002 | −0.002 |
capacity utilization | 0.536 | 0.790 | 0.176 | 1.202*** | −0.092 | 0.131 | −0.092 | 0.463* |
air distance (km) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Derby | −0.036 | −0.014 | 0.166 | 0.180 | 0.043 | 0.095 | −0.069 | −0.150 |
Constant | −0.331 | −0.438 | −0.076 | −0.904*** | 0.130 | −0.020 | 0.302* | −0.116 |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −1276.75 | −1255.91 | −1046.52 | −987.26 | −1275.28 | −1239.49 | −1285.02 | −1241.76 |
H points season | 0.016*** | 0.016*** | 0.016*** | 0.017*** | ||||
A points season | −0.016*** | −0.019*** | −0.018*** | −0.016*** | ||||
H points last 4 | 0.045*** | 0.043*** | 0.064*** | 0.040*** | ||||
A points last 4 | −0.061*** | −0.059*** | −0.068*** | −0.037*** | ||||
COVID placebo | −0.042 | −0.068 | −0.014 | −0.006 | 0.061 | 0.065 | −0.005 | −0.025 |
Weekend | −0.032 | −0.079 | 0.068 | 0.090 | 0.018 | 0.015 | −0.004 | 0.009 |
Rest | 0.000 | 0.001 | −0.005 | −0.009** | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.002 | −0.003 |
capacity utilization | 0.531 | 0.796 | 0.211 | 1.155*** | −0.067 | 0.130 | −0.121 | 0.436* |
air distance (km) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Derby | −0.037 | −0.013 | 0.144 | 0.148 | 0.051 | 0.094 | −0.067 | −0.144 |
Constant | −0.349 | −0.430 | −0.034 | −0.917*** | 0.193 | −0.047 | 0.242 | −0.125 |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −1276.49 | −1255.28 | −1050.36 | −990.85 | −1274.55 | −1238.78 | −1285.83 | −1242.95 |
England | 38,609 | 97% |
Germany | 43,030 | 91% |
Italy | 26,636 | 68% |
Spain | 27,858 | 74% |
GER | 15.33 | 5.8310 | 89.39 |
SPA | 15.79 | 6.1644 | 97.34 |
ENG | 18.89 | 6.1644 | 116.45 |
ITA | 18.66 | 6.1644 | 115.03 |
H points season | 0.048*** | 0.042*** | 0.043*** | 0.046*** | ||||
A points season | −0.038*** | −0.043*** | −0.048*** | −0.042*** | ||||
H points last 4 | 0.102*** | 0.087*** | 0.168*** | 0.092*** | ||||
A points last 4 | −0.117*** | −0.135*** | −0.164*** | −0.095*** | ||||
COVID placebo indicator | −0.020 | −0.071 | 0.030 | 0.053 | 0.150 | 0.156 | 0.026 | −0.011 |
weekend dummy | −0.003 | −0.119 | 0.309 | 0.337 | −0.047 | −0.088 | −0.019 | 0.042 |
rest | −0.003 | −0.002 | −0.012 | −0.024** | −0.004 | −0.002 | −0.006 | −0.006 |
capacity utilization | 2.008 | 2.214* | 0.681 | 2.892*** | −0.206 | 0.126 | −0.418 | 1.096* |
air distance (km) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
derby | −0.191 | −0.135 | 0.755** | 0.661* | 0.025 | 0.074 | −0.299 | −0.497* |
Constant | −2.656** | −2.053 | −1.306 | −2.972*** | −0.080 | −0.525 | −0.039 | −0.920* |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −649.98 | −674.82 | −545.37 | −522.11 | −630.27 | −644.10 | −678.71 | −683.09 |
day, year, matchday | Match date and matchday number | No |
weekend dummy | Weekend dummy | Yes |
Rest | Number of rest days since last league match of the home team (virtually always identical to that of the away team) | Yes |
COVID | COVID period indicator | Yes |
H, A, | Home team and away team | No |
H points season | Season points team of the home team | Yes |
A points season | Season points team of the away team | Yes |
H/A points last 4 | Points gained by Home/away team during last 4 matches | Yes |
Outcome | 1 if H wins the match, 0 if there is a draw, −1 if A wins | No |
Win | 1 if H wins, 0 otherwise | No |
match goal diff. | number of goals scored by H minus goals scored by A | No |
Attendance | Average season attendance | No |
Capacity | Stadium capacity | No |
Capacity utilization | Season average capacity utilization | Yes |
Air distance | Air distance between team stadiums in km | Yes |
Derby | 1 if distance <=50 km, 0 otherwise | No |
H points season | 0.042*** | 0.041*** | 0.036*** | 0.038*** | ||||
A points season | −0.035*** | −0.047*** | −0.037*** | −0.033*** | ||||
H points last 4 | −0.148*** | −0.157*** | −0.141*** | −0.085*** | ||||
A points last 4 | 0.127*** | 0.098*** | 0.154*** | 0.088*** | ||||
COVID period indicator | 0.085 | 0.011 | −0.521** | −0.587** | 0.096 | 0.073 | −0.220 | 0.311* |
weekend dummy | −0.009 | −0.144 | 0.265 | 0.308 | −0.008 | −0.007 | −0.122 | 0.115 |
rest | 0.004 | 0.005 | −0.007 | −0.012 | −0.004 | −0.004 | −0.004 | 0.004 |
capacity utilization | 0.807 | 1.369 | 1.124* | 3.295*** | −0.316 | 0.106 | −0.608 | 0.669 |
air distance (km) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
derby | 0.056 | 0.115 | 0.173 | 0.128 | 0.186 | 0.295 | −0.154 | 0.332 |
Constant | −0.501 | −0.74 | −0.764 | −2.483*** | 0.422* | 0.016 | 0.964*** | 0.038 |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −2144.42 | −2054.22 | −1830.95 | −1696.73 | −2085.43 | −1979.31 | −2065.49 | −1953.84 |
home team points | 0.042*** | 0.042*** | 0.036*** | 0.038*** | ||||
away team points | −0.035*** | −0.047*** | −0.037*** | −0.033*** | ||||
home team form | 0.127*** | 0.099*** | 0.154*** | 0.089*** | ||||
away team form | −0.148*** | −0.155*** | −0.141*** | −0.084*** | ||||
COVID period | 0.035 | −0.011 | 0.058 | 0.050 | 0.086 | 0.101 | −0.084 | 0.131 |
weekend dummy | −0.018 | −0.147 | 0.386* | 0.435* | −0.012 | −0.005 | −0.090 | 0.070 |
rest | 0.005 | 0.006 | −0.010 | −0.016* | −0.004 | −0.004 | −0.005 | 0.006 |
capacity utilization | 0.792 | 1.368 | 1.039 | 3.188*** | −0.304 | 0.114 | −0.647 | 0.608 |
air distance (km) | −0.000 | −0.000 | 0.000 | −0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.000 | 0.000 |
derby | 0.057 | 0.115 | 0.112 | 0.054 | 0.184 | 0.293 | −0.148 | 0.322 |
Constant | −0.485 | −0.735 | −0.815 | −2.530*** | 0.399* | −0.017 | 0.971*** | 0.053 |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −2144.48 | −2054.22 | −1833.86 | −1699.73 | −2085.24 | −1979.00 | −2066.11 | −1954.71 |
H points season | 0.048*** | 0.042*** | 0.043*** | 0.046*** | ||||
A points season | −0.038*** | −0.043*** | −0.048*** | −0.042*** | ||||
H points last 4 | 0.102*** | 0.087*** | 0.168*** | 0.092*** | ||||
A points last 4 | −0.118*** | −0.137*** | −0.164*** | −0.096*** | ||||
COVID period indicator | 0.193 | 0.060 | −0.627** | −0.581** | 0.126 | 0.074 | −0.281 | −0.331 |
weekend dummy | 0.032 | −0.103 | 0.173 | 0.219 | −0.050 | −0.099 | −0.089 | −0.035 |
rest | −0.004 | −0.003 | −0.009 | −0.022* | −0.004 | −0.002 | −0.004 | −0.004 |
capacity utilization | 2.043 | 2.220* | 0.766 | 3.004*** | −0.220 | 0.117 | −0.365 | 1.163* |
air distance (km) | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
derby | −0.191 | −0.135 | 0.755** | 0.661* | 0.025 | 0.074 | −0.299 | −0.497* |
Constant | −2.723** | −2.082* | −1.246 | −2.923*** | −0.028 | −0.466 | 0.015 | −0.878* |
N | 1140 | 1020 | 918 | 810 | 1140 | 1018 | 1140 | 1019 |
log lik | −649.71 | −674.9 | −542.76 | −519.68 | −630.61 | −644.64 | −678.03 | −681.97 |
H/A points season | 46.85 | 15.33 | 51.98 | 15.79 | 52.63 | 18.89 | 52.35 | 18.66 |
H points last 4 | 5.46 | 2.93 | 5.39 | 2.80 | 5.36 | 3.10 | 5.44 | 3.04 |
A points last 4 | 5.53 | 2.94 | 5.55 | 2.86 | 5.72 | 3.00 | 5.56 | 3.04 |
COVID placebo indicator | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
weekend dummy | 0.91 | 0.28 | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0.78 | 0.42 | 0.81 | 0.39 |
rest | 8.92 | 7.83 | 8.30 | 9.29 | 8.42 | 9.93 | 8.18 | 9.51 |
capacity utilization | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.97 | 0.05 | 0.68 | 0.15 |
air distance (km) | 5.50 | 0.72 | 5.78 | 1.16 | 4.91 | 1.02 | 5.59 | 0.80 |
derby | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.26 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
N | 918 | 918 | 1140 | 1140 | 1140 | 1140 | 1140 | 1140 |
2017/18 | Before COVID (placebo) |
0.465 | 0.429 | 0.432 | 0.469 |
COVID (placebo) |
0.422 | 0.533 | 0.431 | 0.476 | |
2018/19 | Before COVID (placebo) |
0.482 | 0.442 | 0.425 | 0.415 |
COVID (placebo) |
0.457 | 0.476 | 0.464 | 0.509 | |
2019/20 | Before COVID | 0.448 | 0.430 | 0.402 | 0.478 |
COVID | 0.467 | 0.325 | 0.444 | 0.409 |