Accès libre

Home Advantage Revisited: Did COVID Level the Playing Fields?

Paweł Strawiński
Paweł Strawiński
 et 
Michał Krawczyk
Michał Krawczyk
   | 25 avr. 2022
Central European Economic Journal's Cover Image
À propos de cet article
Article précédent
Article suivant
Citez
Publié en ligne: 25 avr. 2022
Pages: 56 - 67
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0004
Mots clés
© 2022 Paweł Strawiński et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Regression for match outcome

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
H points season 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.017***
A points season −0.016*** −0.019*** −0.018*** −0.016***
H points last 4 0.045*** 0.043*** 0.064*** 0.040***
A points last 4 −0.061*** −0.060*** −0.067*** −0.038***
COVID period indicator 0.027 −0.007 −0.252*** −0.265*** 0.025 0.009 −0.102 −0.141
weekend dummy −0.023 −0.074 0.014 0.034 0.011 0.005 −0.027 −0.019
Rest 0.000 0.000 −0.003 −0.007* −0.001 0.000 −0.002 −0.002
capacity utilization 0.536 0.790 0.176 1.202*** −0.092 0.131 −0.092 0.463*
air distance (km) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Derby −0.036 −0.014 0.166 0.180 0.043 0.095 −0.069 −0.150
Constant −0.331 −0.438 −0.076 −0.904*** 0.130 −0.020 0.302* −0.116
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −1276.75 −1255.91 −1046.52 −987.26 −1275.28 −1239.49 −1285.02 −1241.76

Regression for match outcome with placebo for COVID

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
H points season 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.016*** 0.017***
A points season −0.016*** −0.019*** −0.018*** −0.016***
H points last 4 0.045*** 0.043*** 0.064*** 0.040***
A points last 4 −0.061*** −0.059*** −0.068*** −0.037***
COVID placebo −0.042 −0.068 −0.014 −0.006 0.061 0.065 −0.005 −0.025
Weekend −0.032 −0.079 0.068 0.090 0.018 0.015 −0.004 0.009
Rest 0.000 0.001 −0.005 −0.009** 0.000 0.000 −0.002 −0.003
capacity utilization 0.531 0.796 0.211 1.155*** −0.067 0.130 −0.121 0.436*
air distance (km) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
Derby −0.037 −0.013 0.144 0.148 0.051 0.094 −0.067 −0.144
Constant −0.349 −0.430 −0.034 −0.917*** 0.193 −0.047 0.242 −0.125
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −1276.49 −1255.28 −1050.36 −990.85 −1274.55 −1238.78 −1285.83 −1242.95

Average attendance per match and stadium capacity utilization

League Attendance Utilization
England 38,609 97%
Germany 43,030 91%
Italy 26,636 68%
Spain 27,858 74%

Standard error and standard deviation of season points by league

League SE sqrt(#matches) SD
GER 15.33 5.8310 89.39
SPA 15.79 6.1644 97.34
ENG 18.89 6.1644 116.45
ITA 18.66 6.1644 115.03

Logits for win indicator with placebo for COVID

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
H points season 0.048*** 0.042*** 0.043*** 0.046***
A points season −0.038*** −0.043*** −0.048*** −0.042***
H points last 4 0.102*** 0.087*** 0.168*** 0.092***
A points last 4 −0.117*** −0.135*** −0.164*** −0.095***
COVID placebo indicator −0.020 −0.071 0.030 0.053 0.150 0.156 0.026 −0.011
weekend dummy −0.003 −0.119 0.309 0.337 −0.047 −0.088 −0.019 0.042
rest −0.003 −0.002 −0.012 −0.024** −0.004 −0.002 −0.006 −0.006
capacity utilization 2.008 2.214* 0.681 2.892*** −0.206 0.126 −0.418 1.096*
air distance (km) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
derby −0.191 −0.135 0.755** 0.661* 0.025 0.074 −0.299 −0.497*
Constant −2.656** −2.053 −1.306 −2.972*** −0.080 −0.525 −0.039 −0.920*
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −649.98 −674.82 −545.37 −522.11 −630.27 −644.10 −678.71 −683.09

Data description and sources

Variable Description Own calculation involved?
www.soccerstats.com
day, year, matchday Match date and matchday number No
weekend dummy Weekend dummy Yes
Rest Number of rest days since last league match of the home team (virtually always identical to that of the away team) Yes
COVID COVID period indicator Yes
H, A, Home team and away team No
H points season Season points team of the home team Yes
A points season Season points team of the away team Yes
H/A points last 4 Points gained by Home/away team during last 4 matches Yes
Outcome 1 if H wins the match, 0 if there is a draw, −1 if A wins No
Win 1 if H wins, 0 otherwise No
match goal diff. number of goals scored by H minus goals scored by A No
www.transfermarkt.de
Attendance Average season attendance No
Capacity Stadium capacity No
Capacity utilization Season average capacity utilization Yes
www.sportmapworld.com
Air distance Air distance between team stadiums in km Yes
Derby 1 if distance <=50 km, 0 otherwise No

Regression for goal difference

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
H points season 0.042*** 0.041*** 0.036*** 0.038***
A points season −0.035*** −0.047*** −0.037*** −0.033***
H points last 4 −0.148*** −0.157*** −0.141*** −0.085***
A points last 4 0.127*** 0.098*** 0.154*** 0.088***
COVID period indicator 0.085 0.011 −0.521** −0.587** 0.096 0.073 −0.220 0.311*
weekend dummy −0.009 −0.144 0.265 0.308 −0.008 −0.007 −0.122 0.115
rest 0.004 0.005 −0.007 −0.012 −0.004 −0.004 −0.004 0.004
capacity utilization 0.807 1.369 1.124* 3.295*** −0.316 0.106 −0.608 0.669
air distance (km) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
derby 0.056 0.115 0.173 0.128 0.186 0.295 −0.154 0.332
Constant −0.501 −0.74 −0.764 −2.483*** 0.422* 0.016 0.964*** 0.038
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −2144.42 −2054.22 −1830.95 −1696.73 −2085.43 −1979.31 −2065.49 −1953.84

Regression for goal difference with placebo for COVID

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
home team points 0.042*** 0.042*** 0.036*** 0.038***
away team points −0.035*** −0.047*** −0.037*** −0.033***
home team form 0.127*** 0.099*** 0.154*** 0.089***
away team form −0.148*** −0.155*** −0.141*** −0.084***
COVID period 0.035 −0.011 0.058 0.050 0.086 0.101 −0.084 0.131
weekend dummy −0.018 −0.147 0.386* 0.435* −0.012 −0.005 −0.090 0.070
rest 0.005 0.006 −0.010 −0.016* −0.004 −0.004 −0.005 0.006
capacity utilization 0.792 1.368 1.039 3.188*** −0.304 0.114 −0.647 0.608
air distance (km) −0.000 −0.000 0.000 −0.000 0.000 0.000 −0.000 0.000
derby 0.057 0.115 0.112 0.054 0.184 0.293 −0.148 0.322
Constant −0.485 −0.735 −0.815 −2.530*** 0.399* −0.017 0.971*** 0.053
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −2144.48 −2054.22 −1833.86 −1699.73 −2085.24 −1979.00 −2066.11 −1954.71

Logits for win indicator

Variable ENG_total ENG_last4 GER_total GER_last4 ITA_total ITA_last4 SPA_total SPA_last4
H points season 0.048*** 0.042*** 0.043*** 0.046***
A points season −0.038*** −0.043*** −0.048*** −0.042***
H points last 4 0.102*** 0.087*** 0.168*** 0.092***
A points last 4 −0.118*** −0.137*** −0.164*** −0.096***
COVID period indicator 0.193 0.060 −0.627** −0.581** 0.126 0.074 −0.281 −0.331
weekend dummy 0.032 −0.103 0.173 0.219 −0.050 −0.099 −0.089 −0.035
rest −0.004 −0.003 −0.009 −0.022* −0.004 −0.002 −0.004 −0.004
capacity utilization 2.043 2.220* 0.766 3.004*** −0.220 0.117 −0.365 1.163*
air distance (km) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
derby −0.191 −0.135 0.755** 0.661* 0.025 0.074 −0.299 −0.497*
Constant −2.723** −2.082* −1.246 −2.923*** −0.028 −0.466 0.015 −0.878*
N 1140 1020 918 810 1140 1018 1140 1019
log lik −649.71 −674.9 −542.76 −519.68 −630.61 −644.64 −678.03 −681.97

Descriptive statistics

League GER SPA ENG ITA
Variable Mean SE Mean SE Mean SE Mean SE
H/A points season 46.85 15.33 51.98 15.79 52.63 18.89 52.35 18.66
H points last 4 5.46 2.93 5.39 2.80 5.36 3.10 5.44 3.04
A points last 4 5.53 2.94 5.55 2.86 5.72 3.00 5.56 3.04
COVID placebo indicator 0.09 0.29 0.10 0.39 0.08 0.27 0.11 0.31
weekend dummy 0.91 0.28 0.82 0.38 0.78 0.42 0.81 0.39
rest 8.92 7.83 8.30 9.29 8.42 9.93 8.18 9.51
capacity utilization 0.91 0.09 0.74 0.11 0.97 0.05 0.68 0.15
air distance (km) 5.50 0.72 5.78 1.16 4.91 1.02 5.59 0.80
derby 0.05 0.21 0.07 0.26 0.14 0.35 0.05 0.22
N 918 918 1140 1140 1140 1140 1140 1140

Home team win percentage

Season ENG GER ITA SPA
2017/18 Before COVID (placebo)* 0.465 0.429 0.432 0.469
COVID (placebo)* 0.422 0.533 0.431 0.476
2018/19 Before COVID (placebo)* 0.482 0.442 0.425 0.415
COVID (placebo)* 0.457 0.476 0.464 0.509
2019/20 Before COVID 0.448 0.430 0.402 0.478
COVID 0.467 0.325 0.444 0.409
eISSN:
2543-6821
Langue:
Anglais
Périodicité:
Volume Open
Sujets de la revue:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Economic Theory, Systems and Structures, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy
RSS Feed de la revue