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Air Pollution and Migration in European Cities

,  et   
08 sept. 2025
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Estimations of basic models with interactions

(1.1) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6)
Air qualitv (OS) Air quality (HS) Air quality (OD) Air quality (HD) PM10 PM2.5
Environmental variables 0.036* 0.075* –0.039* –0.033 –0.081** –0.157**
(0.020) (0.042) (0.020) (0.021) (0.037) (0.078)
Models with interactions
(1.1.2) (1.2.2) (1.3.2) (1.4.2) (1.5.2) (1.6.2)
Environmental variables 0.042 0.090 –0.046* –0.061** –0.073 –0.122
(0.027) (0.061) (0.026) (0.030) (0.057) (0.138)
Dummy “East” 7.801** 7.473** 4.766 5.450** 5.612* 6.905
(3.741) (3.385) (3.118) (2.772) (3.403) (4.717)
Interactions “East” with envir. var. –0.030 –0.085 0.034 0.073* –0.002 –0.025
(0.041) (0.085) (0.040) (0.043) (0.081) (0.172)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3926 0.3902 0.3940 0.3932 0.3874 0.3697
(1.1.4) (1.2.4) (1.3.4) (1.4.4) (1.5.4) (1.6.4)
Environmental variables 0.024 0.062* –0.028 –0.031 –0.063 –0.186**
(0.024) (0.037) (0.023) (0.029) (0.042) (0.087)
Dummy “Capital City” –0.027 0.661 3.320 1.694 2.603 –0.082
(1.746) (1.299) (2.731) (1.631) (2.541) (3.287)
Interactions “Capital City” with envir. var. 0.036 0.084 –0.032 –0.009 –0.035 0.160
(0.041) (0.119) (0.040) (0.043) (0.081) (0.146)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3829 0.3791 0.3843 0.3761 0.3809 0.3676
(1.1.6) (1.2.6) (1.3.6) (1.4.6) (1.5.6) (1.6.6)
Environmental variables 0.040 0.104** –0.041* –0.031 –0.079** –0.147*
(0.024) (0.052) (0.024) (0.025) (0.039) (0.087)
Dummy “Seaside City” –2.261 –1.540 –2.151 –1.611 0.217 –0.628
(2.044) (1.373) (2.031) (1.314) (3.201) (3.077)
Interactions “Seaside City” with envir. var. –0.001 –0.052 –0.004 –0.030 –0.120 –0.137
(0.039) (0.074) (0.038) (0.043) (0.123) (0.201)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3848 0.3806 0.3861 0.3795 0.3863 0.3655

Results of principal-component factors method

Factor Eigenvalue Difference Proportion Cumulative
Factor 1 4.11209 3.19448 0.5874 0.5874
Factor 2 0.91761 0.36585 0.1311 0.7185
Factor 3 0.55176 0.00439 0.0788 0.7974
Factor 4 0.54737 0.12792 0.0782 0.8755
Factor 5 0.41945 0.14956 0.0599 0.9355
Factor 6 0.26989 0.08805 0.0386 0.9740
Factor 7 0.18183 . 0.0260 1.0000

Results of factor analysis – rotated factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances

Variable (OS) Factor 1 (PS) Uniqueness
Public transport 0.8136 0.3380
Health care services 0.6815 0.5355
Sport facilities 0.7868 0.3810
Cultural facilities 0.7813 0.3895
Green spaces 0.8772 0.2306
Cleanliness 0.7643 0.4158
Personal feeling of safety 0.6344 0.5975

Model estimations (dependent variable: the net migration per 1000 inhabitants in year t)

(1.1) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8) (1.9)
Air qualitv (OS) Air quality (HS) Air quality (OD) Air quality (HD) PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 BaP
Environmental variables 0.036* 0.075*: –0.039* –0.033 –0.081** –0.157** 0.175 –0.092 –0.722*
(0.020) (0.042) (0.020) (0.021) (0.037) (0.078) (0.140) (0.057) (0.437)
Public services 0.656 0.791 0.616 0.806 1.394* 1.856 0.888 1.472** 1.691
(0.633) (0.625) (0.638) (0.661) (0.789) (1.145) (0.852) (0.748) (1.202)
Labor market 0.147*** 0.152*** 0.148*** 0.145*** 0.126*** 0.096*** 0.153*** 0.150*** 0.108**
(0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.024) (0.025) (0.035) (0.033) (0.027) (0.044)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Constant 1.382 1.961 4.968 3.810 6.028* 7.671* 1.168 5.931* 5.092
(2.276) (2.336) (3.390) (3.016) (3.450) (4.429) (2.758) (3.344) (3.484)
Overall R2 0.3718 0.3673 0.3729 0.3661 0.3693 0.3539 0.3677 0.3646 0.4068
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210 227 288 126
Number of cities 70 70 70 70 68 62 58 68 42

Multicollinearity test (VIF), dependent variable: the net migration per 1000 inhabitants in year t

(1.1) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6) (1.7) (1.8) (1.9)
Air quality (OS) Air quality (HS) Air quality (OD) Air quality (HD) PM10 PM2.5 SO2 NO2 BaP
Environmental variable 1.70 1.72 1.75 1.57 1.81 2.34 1.79 1.75 2.61
Public services 3.01 2.87 3.02 2.93 2.70 2.81 2.78 2.62 3.11
Labor market 1.76 1.84 1.76 1.73 1.75 1.83 1.78 1.88 1.87

Estimations of basic models with dummy variables

(1.1) (1.2) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6)
Air qualitv (OS) Air quality (HS) Air quality (OD) Air quality (HD) PM10 PM2.5
Environmental variables 0.036* 0.075* –0.039* –0.033 –0.081** –0.157**
(0.020) (0.042) (0.020) (0.021) (0.037) (0.078)
Models with dummy variables
(1.1.1) (1.2.1) (1.3.1) (1.4.1) (1.5.1) (1.6.1)
Environmental variables 0.033 0.061 –0.036* –0.031 –0.074** –0.136*
(0.020) (0.043) (0.020) (0.021) (0.037) (0.081)
Dummy “East” 5.518* 5.228 5.501* 5.844** 5.566** 6.568
(2.924) (3.449) (2.935) (2.793) (2.828) (4.577)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3884 0.3830 0.3894 0.3846 0.3875 0.3698
(1.1.3) (1.2.3) (1.3.3) (1.4.3) (1.5.3) (1.6.3)
Environmental variables 0.039* 0.084* –0.042** –0.036* –0.072** –0.143*
(0.021) (0.045) (0.021) (0.021) (0.036) (0.074)
Dummy “Capital City” 1.604 1.606 1.629 1.476 1.775 2.323
(1.071) (1.101) (1.068) (1.068) (1.215) (1.618)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3834 0.3784 0.3848 0.3766 0.3815 0.3682
(1.1.5) (1.2.5) (1.3.5) (1.4.5) (1.5.5) (1.6.5)
Environmental variables 0.040** 0.086** –0.043** –0.038* –0.102*** –0.177**
(0.020) (0.040) (0.020) (0.021) (0.037) (0.077)
Dummy “Seaside City” –2.327*** –2.369*** –2.343*** –2.236*** –2.650*** –2.516**
(0.795) (0.762) (0.797) (0.823) (1.017) (1.100)
Country yes yes yes yes yes yes
Observations 326 326 326 326 277 210
Overall R2 0.3848 0.3805 0.3860 0.3782 0.3862 0.3648