<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.</p>
</abstract>

There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and whether it explains the slower quarter-one GDP growth rate in the recent years. This article aims to bring clarity to this topic by (1) summarizing the techniques and methodologies used in these studies; (2) arguing for a sound methodological framework for evaluating claims of residual seasonality; and (3) proposing three diagnostic tests for detecting residual seasonality, applying them to different vintages and different sample spans of data on real GDP and its major components from the U.S. national accounts and making comparisons with results from the previous studies.

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates

Journal of Official Statistics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

There is an ongoing debate on whether residual seasonality is present in the estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in U.S. national accounts and...

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates

Publié en ligne: 14 juin 2022

Pages: 399 - 428

Reçu: 01 déc. 2020

Accepté: 01 juin 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0020

Mots clés
Seasonality diagnostics, residual seasonality

© 2022 Baoline Chen et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Assessing Residual Seasonality in the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Aggregates

Publié en ligne: 14 juin 2022

Pages: 399 - 428

Reçu: 01 déc. 2020

Accepté: 01 juin 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2022-0020

Mots clésSeasonality diagnostics, residual seasonality

© 2022 Baoline Chen et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
Seasonality diagnostics, residual seasonality