<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Thanks to non-pollution and sustainability of wind energy, it has become the main source of power generation in the new era worldwide. However, the inherent random fluctuation and intermittency of wind power have negative effects on the safe and stable operation of power system and the quality of power. The key solving this problem is to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. In the paper, considering the forecasting accuracy is affected by many factors, we propose that, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is combined with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to process the sample, which can weaken the mutual interference between the various factors, extract accurately independent component reflected the characteristics of wind farm and achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of wind speed prediction. At the same time, the adaptive and self-learning ability of neural network is more suitable for wind speed sequence prediction. The prediction results demonstrate that compared with the traditional neural network predicting model (RBF, BP, Elman), this model makes full use of the information provided by varieties of relevant factors, weakens the volatility of wind speed sequence and significantly enhances the short-term wind speed forecasting accuracy. The research work in the paper can help wind farm reasonably arrange the power dispatching plan, reduce the power operation cost and effectively boost the large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy.</p></abstract>

Thanks to non-pollution and sustainability of wind energy, it has become the main source of power generation in the new era worldwide. However, the inherent random fluctuation and intermittency of wind power have negative effects on the safe and stable operation of power system and the quality of power. The key solving this problem is to improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction. In the paper, considering the forecasting accuracy is affected by many factors, we propose that, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is combined with Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to process the sample, which can weaken the mutual interference between the various factors, extract accurately independent component reflected the characteristics of wind farm and achieve the purpose of improving the accuracy of wind speed prediction. At the same time, the adaptive and self-learning ability of neural network is more suitable for wind speed sequence prediction. The prediction results demonstrate that compared with the traditional neural network predicting model (RBF, BP, Elman), this model makes full use of the information provided by varieties of relevant factors, weakens the volatility of wind speed sequence and significantly enhances the short-term wind speed forecasting accuracy. The research work in the paper can help wind farm reasonably arrange the power dispatching plan, reduce the power operation cost and effectively boost the large-scale development and utilization of renewable energy.

Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA

State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources

Journal of Electrical Engineering

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

{"article-title":"Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA"}

Thanks to non-pollution and sustainability of wind energy, it has become the main source of power generation in the new era worldwide. However, the inherent...

Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA

Publié en ligne: 30 mai 2018

Pages: 148 - 155

Reçu: 26 févr. 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jee-2018-0018

Mots clés
renewable energy, wind speed prediction, PCA, ICA, artificial neural network

© 2018 Yagang Zhang et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Wind speed prediction with RBF neural network based on PCA and ICA

Publié en ligne: 30 mai 2018

Pages: 148 - 155

Reçu: 26 févr. 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jee-2018-0018

Mots clésrenewable energy, wind speed prediction, PCA, ICA, artificial neural network

© 2018 Yagang Zhang et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Mots clés
renewable energy, wind speed prediction, PCA, ICA, artificial neural network