<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the literature usually implies a period of 12 months before and 12 months after a crisis outbreak, models in this paper imply a 24-month pre-crisis period. Probability of a banking crisis occurrence is calculated using logit regression. Results have shown that banking system indicators have higher impact on probability of systemic banking crisis occurrence compared to macroeconomic indicators, and that the banking systems of these countries are significantly exposed to global trends.</p></abstract>

The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the literature usually implies a period of 12 months before and 12 months after a crisis outbreak, models in this paper imply a 24-month pre-crisis period. Probability of a banking crisis occurrence is calculated using logit regression. Results have shown that banking system indicators have higher impact on probability of systemic banking crisis occurrence compared to macroeconomic indicators, and that the banking systems of these countries are significantly exposed to global trends.

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the...

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Publié en ligne: 14 mai 2018

Pages: 165 - 186

Reçu: 22 nov. 2017

Accepté: 27 déc. 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0017

Mots clés
determinants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries

© 2017 Željka Asanović, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Publié en ligne: 14 mai 2018

Pages: 165 - 186

Reçu: 22 nov. 2017

Accepté: 27 déc. 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0017

Mots clésdeterminants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries

© 2017 Željka Asanović, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Mots clés
determinants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries