<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the literature usually implies a period of 12 months before and 12 months after a crisis outbreak, models in this paper imply a 24-month pre-crisis period. Probability of a banking crisis occurrence is calculated using logit regression. Results have shown that banking system indicators have higher impact on probability of systemic banking crisis occurrence compared to macroeconomic indicators, and that the banking systems of these countries are significantly exposed to global trends.</p></abstract>

The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the literature usually implies a period of 12 months before and 12 months after a crisis outbreak, models in this paper imply a 24-month pre-crisis period. Probability of a banking crisis occurrence is calculated using logit regression. Results have shown that banking system indicators have higher impact on probability of systemic banking crisis occurrence compared to macroeconomic indicators, and that the banking systems of these countries are significantly exposed to global trends.

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

The purpose of this paper is to determine potential indicators of systemic banking crises in five Southeast European countries. Although signal horizon in the...

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Published Online: May 14, 2018

Page range: 165 - 186

Received: Nov 22, 2017

Accepted: Dec 27, 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0017

Keywords
determinants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries

© 2017 Željka Asanović, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

An Analysis of the Determinants of Systemic Banking Crises in Southeast European Countries

Published Online: May 14, 2018

Page range: 165 - 186

Received: Nov 22, 2017

Accepted: Dec 27, 2017

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0017

Keywordsdeterminants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries

© 2017 Željka Asanović, published by De Gruyter Open

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Keywords
determinants of systemic banking crises, logit regression, Southeast European countries