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Temporary international migration, shocks and informal finance: analysis using panel data

Tanika Chakraborty
Tanika Chakraborty
 et 
Manish Pandey
Manish Pandey
   | 13 sept. 2022
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Publié en ligne: 13 sept. 2022
Pages: -
Accepté: 11 juin 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2022-0008
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© 2022 Tanika Chakraborty et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Migration by month: year 2010.
Migration by month: year 2010.

Summary of shocks (2010–2013)

Variable Mean SD Min Max
Drought 0.232 0.422 0 1
Rain and landslide 0.211 0.408 0 1
Winter and frost 0.379 0.485 0 1
Earthquake 0.162 0.368 0 1
Pest 0.193 0.394 0 1

Migration and shocks

1b/se 2b/se 3b/se 4b/se 5b/se 6b/se
Droughtt−1 0.038* (0.022) 0.040* (0.023)
Rain and landslidet−1 −0.002 (0.021) 0.009 (0.022)
Winter and frost t−1 −0.041** (0.020) −0.045** (0.020)
Earthquake t−1 −0.009 (0.028) −0.012 (0.027)
Pest t−1 0.015 (0.017) 0.012 (0.019)
Constant 0.164*** (0.023) 0.164*** (0.026) 0.194*** (0.030) 0.136*** (0.024) 0.160*** (0.025) 0.168*** (0.027)
Observations 5,209 5,209 5,209 5,209 5,209 5,209
Households 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781
Household FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year × oblast Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Clustered SE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Migration and shocks: village versus city

1b/se 2b/se b/se b/se b/se
Droughtt−1 0.041* (0.022)
City × droughtt−1 −0.014 (0.035)
Rain and landslide 0.001 (0.022)
City × rain and landslidet−1 0.003 (0.045)
Winter and frostt−1 −0.026 (0.020)
City × winter and frostt−1 0.028 (0.029)
Earthquake t−1 −0.018 (0.028)
City × earthquaket−1 0.027 (0.041)
Pestt−1 0.015 (0.018)
City × pestt−1 −0.022 (0.052)
City significance test
Ho: shock + city × shock=0 Accept Accept Accept Accept Accept
Observations 8,347 8,347 8,347 8,347 8,347
Households 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976 2,976
Household FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year × oblast Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Clustered SE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Migrant and non-migrant households

Year Non-migrant Migrant Fraction migrant
2010 1,513 271 0.152
2011 1,446 320 0.181
2012 1,438 341 0.192
2013 1,329 357 0.212

Migration and shocks with controls

1b/se 2b/se 3b/se 4b/se 5b/se 6
Droughtt−1 0.042* (0.023) 0.044* (0.024)
Rain and landslide t−1 −0.002 (0.021) 0.008 (0.022)
Winter and frost t−1 −0.039* (0.022) −0.042* (0.022)
Earthquake t−1 −0.006 (0.030) −0.008 (0.029)
Pestt−1 0.014 (0.019) 0.010 (0.020)
Constant −0.371*** (0.101) −0.399*** (0.103) −0.337*** (0.101) −0.399*** (0.102) −0.388*** (0.103) −0.365*** (0.100)
Household size 0.045*** (0.010) 0.045*** (0.010) 0.045*** (0.010) 0.045*** (0.010) 0.045*** (0.010) 0.045*** (0.010)
Male fraction 0.085 (0.082) 0.084 (0.083) 0.088 (0.083) 0.083 (0.083) 0.082 (0.083) 0.087 (0.082)
Adult fraction 0.448*** (0.080) 0.448*** (0.080) 0.440*** (0.079) 0.448*** (0.080) 0.447*** (0.080) 0.439*** (0.079)
Elderly fraction −0.146 (0.105) −0.148 (0.105) −0.139 (0.105) −0.148 (0.105) −0.147 (0.105) −0.136 (0.105)
Education years −0.001 (0.002) −0.001 (0.002) −0.001 (0.002) −0.001 (0.002) −0.001 (0.002) −0.001 (0.002)
Wealth2 −0.037** (0.017) −0.036** (0.018) −0.035** (0.018) −0.035** (0.017) −0.035** (0.018) −0.035** (0.017)
Wealth3 −0.021 (0.023) −0.020 (0.023) −0.019 (0.023) −0.020 (0.023) −0.019 (0.023) −0.019 (0.023)
Wealth4 −0.029 (0.028) −0.027 (0.028) −0.024 (0.028) −0.027 (0.028) −0.027 (0.028) −0.025 (0.027)
Wealth5 −0.003 (0.037) −0.001 (0.037) 0.001 (0.036) −0.001 (0.037) 0.000 (0.037) −0.001 (0.036)
Observations 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051
Households 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781
Household FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year × oblast Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Clustered SE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Patterns of migration

Year (1)0 to 0 (2)0 to 1 (3)1 to 0 (4)1 to 1
2011 0.761 0.088 0.058 0.093
2012 0.736 0.083 0.071 0.110
2013 0.699 0.107 0.090 0.105

Summary statistics (year 2010)

Variable Non-migrant Migrant
Household size 5.07 6.45
Male fraction 0.50 0.53
Adult fraction 0.65 0.72
Elderly fraction 0.07 0.03
Education years 13.35 14.50
Wealth 1 0.29 0.26
Wealth 2 0.24 0.31
Wealth 3 0.20 0.25
Wealth 4 0.16 0.12
Wealth 5 0.11 0.06

Correlation between shocks (year 2010)

Drought Rain and landslide Winter and frost Earthquake Pest
Drought 1.00
Rain and landslide 0.00 1.00
Winter and frost 0.14 0.23 1.00
Earthquake 0.02 0.26 0.17 1.00
Pest 0.11 0.24 0.25 0.24 1.00

Hours spent on activities per day in colder vis-à-vis other months

Activity Mean SD P10 P90
Housing/repair Non-winter 1.9 1.1 1.0 3.5
Winter 2.8 2.0 1.0 5.5
Eat/sleep/laundry Non-winter 5.2 3.4 1.5 9.5
Winter 5.2 3.4 1.5 9.5

Shocks and decision to recall and send migrants

Recallb/se Sendb/se
Droughtt−1 −0.066 (0.072) 0.053** (0.021)
Rain and landslidet−1 −0.101 (0.064) 0.025 (0.019)
Winter and frostt−1 0.146 (0.103) −0.004 (0.017)
Earthquaket−1 0.016 (0.087) −0.008 (0.022)
Pestt−1 −0.023 (0.083) −0.006 (0.019)
Constant 1.318*** (0.389) −0.164* (0.085)
Observations 891 4,160
Households 523 1,668
Household FE Yes Yes
Year × oblast Yes Yes
Clustered SE Yes Yes

Migration, informal finance and shocks

1b/se 2b/se 3b/se 4b/se 5b/se
Easyfin 0.126 (0.121) 0.082 (0.126) 0.012 (0.144) 0.117 (0.116) 0.019 (0.134)
Droughtt−1 0.183** (0.077)
Easyfin × droughtt−1 −0.346** (0.165)
Rain and landslidet−1 0.091 (0.093)
Easyfin × rain and landslidet−1 −0.215 (0.199)
Winter and frostt−1 −0.051 (0.067)
Easyfin × winter and frostt−1 0.028 (0.143)
Earthquaket−1 0.176** (0.087)
Easyfin × earthquaket−1 −0.431** (0.192)
Pestt−1 −0.009 (0.057)
Easyfin × pestt−1 0.060 (0.143)
Observations 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051 5,051
Households 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781 1,781
Household FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Year × oblast Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Clustered SE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
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