<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpoľanie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future.</p></abstract>

Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpoľanie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future.

Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce

Central European Forestry Journal

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties....

Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce

Publié en ligne: 09 mai 2019

Pages: 103 - 120

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/forj-2019-0009

Mots clés
forest management, future variations, coherence of scenarios, consistency matrix, cluster map

© 2019 Rudolf Navrátil et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce

Publié en ligne: 09 mai 2019

Pages: 103 - 120

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/forj-2019-0009

Mots clésforest management, future variations, coherence of scenarios, consistency matrix, cluster map

© 2019 Rudolf Navrátil et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Mots clés
forest management, future variations, coherence of scenarios, consistency matrix, cluster map