<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs) are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km), does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs), which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km). However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs) identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor) and small-scale variable (predictand) implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.</p></abstract>

The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world. Present projections from global circulation models (GCMs) are too coarse and are only usefulness for the world, hemisphere or continent spatial analysis. The low horizontal resolution of global models (100–200 km), does not allow to assess climate changes at regional or local scales. Therefore it is necessary to lead studies concerning how to detail the GCMs information. The problem of information transfer from the GCMs to higher spatial scale solve: dynamical and statistical downscaling. The dynamical downscaling method based on “nesting” global information in a regional models (RCMs), which solve the equations of motion and the thermodynamic laws in a small spatial scale (10–50 km). However, the statistical downscaling models (SDMs) identify the relationship between large-scale variable (predictor) and small-scale variable (predictand) implementing linear regression. The main goal of the study was to compare the global model scenarios of thermal condition in Poland in XXI century with the more accurate statistical and dynamical regional models outcomes. Generally studies confirmed usefulness of statistical downscaling to detail information from GCMs. Basic results present that regional models captured local aspects of thermal conditions variability especially in coastal zone.

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

Institute of Geography, University of Gdańsk, Poland

Quaestiones Geographicae

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The main source of information about future climate changes are the results of numerical simulations performed in scientific institutions around the world....

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

Publié en ligne: 30 déc. 2015

Pages: 85 - 99

Reçu: 29 oct. 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2015-0023

Mots clés
downscaling, climate changes, air temperature, canonical correlation analysis, weather generator, Poland

© 2015 Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Temperature Changes In Poland In 21st Century – Results Of Global Simulation And Regional Downscaling

Publié en ligne: 30 déc. 2015

Pages: 85 - 99

Reçu: 29 oct. 2014

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2015-0023

Mots clésdownscaling, climate changes, air temperature, canonical correlation analysis, weather generator, Poland

© 2015 Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
downscaling, climate changes, air temperature, canonical correlation analysis, weather generator, Poland