<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.</p></abstract>

This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.

Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries...

Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

Publié en ligne: 23 sept. 2016

Pages: 5 - 29

Reçu: 02 oct. 2015

Accepté: 10 janv. 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0017

Mots clés
Central Banking, Credit Default Swap Spreads, Sovereign ratings, Country risk analysis

© 2016 Central Bank of Montenegro

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

Publié en ligne: 23 sept. 2016

Pages: 5 - 29

Reçu: 02 oct. 2015

Accepté: 10 janv. 2016

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0017

Mots clésCentral Banking, Credit Default Swap Spreads, Sovereign ratings, Country risk analysis

© 2016 Central Bank of Montenegro

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Mots clés
Central Banking, Credit Default Swap Spreads, Sovereign ratings, Country risk analysis