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Détails du magazine
Format
Magazine
eISSN
2336-9205
Première publication
11 Mar 2014
Période de publication
3 fois par an
Langues
Anglais

Chercher

Volume 5 (2016): Edition 3 (September 2016)

Détails du magazine
Format
Magazine
eISSN
2336-9205
Première publication
11 Mar 2014
Période de publication
3 fois par an
Langues
Anglais

Chercher

9 Articles
Accès libre

Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 5 - 29

Résumé

Abstract

This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.

Mots clés

  • Central Banking
  • Credit Default Swap Spreads
  • Sovereign ratings
  • Country risk analysis

JEL

  • E02
  • E58
  • F30
  • G00
Accès libre

Financial Constraints and the Response of Business Investment to Monetary Policy Shocks

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 31 - 46

Résumé

Abstract

In this study I investigate what impact monetary policy shocks have on firms’ fixed investment, the less liquid portion of gross investment that requires more planning. I account for firms facing financial constraints firms by utilizing a common measure of asset size, which is used in previous literature. I use two exogenous, continuous series of monetary policy shocks to show that constrained firms have statistically different responses to policy than unconstrained firms. Specifically, I find that constrained firms’ fixed investment significantly responds more to monetary policy shocks than unconstrained firms.

Mots clés

  • Business Investment
  • Monetary Policy

JEL

  • G31
  • E52
Accès libre

Influence of Market Values of Enterprise on Objectivity of the Altman Z-Model in the Period 2006-2012: Case of the Republic of Macedonia and Republic of Serbia

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 47 - 59

Résumé

Abstract

The Altman’s model is a multiple discriminant analysis bankruptcy model that uses ordinarily accepted criteria that may provide a useful decision rule to predict financial distress in firms. In this research, we outline the construction and interpretation of the Z-Score influenced by the stock movement for the period of six years in the Republics of Macedonia and Serbia. Research focuses determining the influence of the market value of companies and if it could be related to potential bankruptcy of companies at specific markets.

Mots clés

  • Altman’s Z
  • financial distress
  • bankruptcy

JEL

  • GO1 Financial Crises
Accès libre

Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 61 - 78

Résumé

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Mots clés

  • Forecasting
  • Business cycle turning points
  • Qual VAR
  • MCMC
  • Latent variable

JEL

  • F42
  • C25
  • C22
Accès libre

Importance of Macroprudential Policy Implementation for Safeguarding Financial Stability

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 79 - 98

Résumé

Abstract

The crisis pointed to the necessity for strong and stable financial system resistant to potential risks and shocks. Macroprudential policy is used to identify, monitor and asses systemic risks to financial stability. Therefore, it is very important to create effective and efficient macroprudential policy. To achieve this, it is crucial to create a strong institutional framework.

This paper deals with the importance of macroprudential policy for financial system stability. The first part of the paper explains the macroprudential policy and its connection with other economic policies. The second part refers to the necessity of building strong institutional framework and the importance of providing clear responsibilities for macroprudential policy, as long as precise determination of responsibilities is very suggested and important for further functioning and policy implementation. Responsibilities for macro-prudential policy and macroprudential supervision defers among countries.

Mots clés

  • macroprudential policy
  • financial stability
  • economic policies
  • institutional framework

JEL

  • E52
  • E58
  • E61
  • E62
  • G18
Accès libre

Monitoring the Quality of Services in Electronic Banking

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 99 - 119

Résumé

Abstract

Successful development of electronic banking is in direct correlation with the quality of services in electronic banking. Therefore, it is necessary that the banks are familiar with the attributes of electronic services on which clients assess the bank’s quality and client’s satisfaction with them, in order to be able to monitor, correct and improve the performance of electronic banking. We start from the hypothesis that there are already developed theoretical models for measuring the quality of e-banking services but they must be adjusted to the specific environment that is analysed in order to obtain reliable and quality information. The qualitative and quantitative research methods are applied in this paper in order to a get adjusted theoretical model (instrument) for measuring the quality of electronic banking services. As a result of the conducted analysis, the initial theoretical model has been modified, so that the final version of the model (instrument) for measuring quality of online banking allows obtaining reliable data, and information in the particular environment. And the results are: significant information about the quality of e-banking, modified theoretical model, information about the dimensions of quality of e-banking, customer satisfaction, and pathways and guidelines for the improvement of e-banking. The measuring of quality of electronic banking services in not one time activity but repeated one, as permanent monitoring strategy. This research is widely applicable even though it was conducted in the context of Montenegrin e-banking, since most of the banks in Montenegro are owned by well-known European banks, and it is expected that the obtained knowledge and information can be generalized.

Mots clés

  • electronic banking
  • electronic services
  • service quality
  • models
  • information technology

JEL

  • G21
  • D80
  • L00
  • l86
Accès libre

Affirmation of the Legal Status of Taxpayers in Montenegro

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 121 - 138

Résumé

Abstract

Public needs cannot be adequately funded without a clear and legally based affirmative legal status of taxpayers. The promotion and protection of their rights and regular fulfilment of tax obligations by taxpayers is the basis of fiscal and financial stability of the country and other public collectivities. It is essential for Montenegro to overcome the traditional gap between taxpayers and tax administration through their partnership. At the same time, we must not jeopardize the basic purpose of taxation - legal and timely payment of taxes. Simple and stable tax regulations and a non-discriminating and subtle approach to building tax discipline and development of tax morale should serve that purpose.

Mots clés

  • improvement and protection of taxpayer rights
  • fulfilment of tax obligations
  • functional legal status of taxpayers
  • country and taxpayer partnership

JEL

  • H20
  • K34
Accès libre

Investment in Research and Development - A Factor of Adjustment of Montenegro to the EU Economy

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 139 - 164

Résumé

Abstract

Montenegro and other Western Balkan countries are characterized by historical mortgages, political instability, commenced but uncompleted structural reforms and unfavourable economic situation, which all contributed to their lagging behind other EU member states. In addition to this, these countries have been faced with a low level of investment in research and development, unfavourable educational structure, low level of innovation and a lack of awareness about the importance of research and development in modern economies.

The economic and political situation led to their determination to become a full EU member, which requires the fulfilment of specified criteria, implementation of structural reforms and “catching up” with other EU member states. Investment into research and development are found to be the key factor for fulfilling their objective – EU membership.

Mots clés

  • economic growth
  • EU
  • expenditure
  • Montenegro
  • research and development

JEL

  • F15
  • O32
Accès libre

Over-reaction to Policy Signals, and Central Bank Optimal Communication Policy

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 165 - 187

Résumé

Abstract

This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and counter arguments regarding central bank optimal communication policy in an environment with imperfect common knowledge and strategic complementarity. More specifically, the paper discusses the environment in which full transparency is no longer necessarily the superior strategy. Uncertainty about the underlying economic state in the presence of dispersed information is the basis for the emergence of imperfect common knowledge. These issues are further discussed in an augmented Lucas-island model. Full policy transparency in this setting leads to overreliance to central bank public policy signals, resulting in the expectations coordination away from fundamentals - dubbed as over-reaction to central bank announcements. Optimal communication policy in this context entails strategies to limit over-reaction via partial transparency or partial publicity.

Mots clés

  • Optimal communication policy
  • imperfect common knowledge
  • strategic complementarity
  • full transparency

JEL

  • E52
  • E58
  • D82
9 Articles
Accès libre

Does Central Bank Quality Determine Sovereign Ratings and Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from the World?

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 5 - 29

Résumé

Abstract

This study innovates from prior research which focuses on the determinants of sovereign ratings and credit default swap spreads for a large sample of countries by incorporating the quality of central banks, let alone refined proxies. Findings show that the explanatory power of both sovereign ratings and CDS spreads model improve by a hefty 11 percent in case of sovereign ratings and 6 to 9 percent in the case of CDS spreads when central bank quality is incorporated. Such a finding bolters the notion that institutional quality does play a preponderant role when it comes to assessing country risk, making it a systematic component of institutional quality. The effect of labour participation implies that countries buffeted by stronger effects of an ageing population have greater propensity of increases in CDS spreads. Evidence is also found as to the driving dynamics of CDS spreads and sovereign ratings to be distinct. Our results hold robust post tackling for endogeneity problem.

Mots clés

  • Central Banking
  • Credit Default Swap Spreads
  • Sovereign ratings
  • Country risk analysis

JEL

  • E02
  • E58
  • F30
  • G00
Accès libre

Financial Constraints and the Response of Business Investment to Monetary Policy Shocks

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 31 - 46

Résumé

Abstract

In this study I investigate what impact monetary policy shocks have on firms’ fixed investment, the less liquid portion of gross investment that requires more planning. I account for firms facing financial constraints firms by utilizing a common measure of asset size, which is used in previous literature. I use two exogenous, continuous series of monetary policy shocks to show that constrained firms have statistically different responses to policy than unconstrained firms. Specifically, I find that constrained firms’ fixed investment significantly responds more to monetary policy shocks than unconstrained firms.

Mots clés

  • Business Investment
  • Monetary Policy

JEL

  • G31
  • E52
Accès libre

Influence of Market Values of Enterprise on Objectivity of the Altman Z-Model in the Period 2006-2012: Case of the Republic of Macedonia and Republic of Serbia

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 47 - 59

Résumé

Abstract

The Altman’s model is a multiple discriminant analysis bankruptcy model that uses ordinarily accepted criteria that may provide a useful decision rule to predict financial distress in firms. In this research, we outline the construction and interpretation of the Z-Score influenced by the stock movement for the period of six years in the Republics of Macedonia and Serbia. Research focuses determining the influence of the market value of companies and if it could be related to potential bankruptcy of companies at specific markets.

Mots clés

  • Altman’s Z
  • financial distress
  • bankruptcy

JEL

  • GO1 Financial Crises
Accès libre

Forecasting Macedonian Business Cycle Turning Points Using Qual Var Model

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 61 - 78

Résumé

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic conditions. We further proceed analyzing how well an extended set of indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results show that the use of survey-based indicators as a complement to macroeconomic data work satisfactory well in capturing the business cycle developments in Macedonia.

Mots clés

  • Forecasting
  • Business cycle turning points
  • Qual VAR
  • MCMC
  • Latent variable

JEL

  • F42
  • C25
  • C22
Accès libre

Importance of Macroprudential Policy Implementation for Safeguarding Financial Stability

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 79 - 98

Résumé

Abstract

The crisis pointed to the necessity for strong and stable financial system resistant to potential risks and shocks. Macroprudential policy is used to identify, monitor and asses systemic risks to financial stability. Therefore, it is very important to create effective and efficient macroprudential policy. To achieve this, it is crucial to create a strong institutional framework.

This paper deals with the importance of macroprudential policy for financial system stability. The first part of the paper explains the macroprudential policy and its connection with other economic policies. The second part refers to the necessity of building strong institutional framework and the importance of providing clear responsibilities for macroprudential policy, as long as precise determination of responsibilities is very suggested and important for further functioning and policy implementation. Responsibilities for macro-prudential policy and macroprudential supervision defers among countries.

Mots clés

  • macroprudential policy
  • financial stability
  • economic policies
  • institutional framework

JEL

  • E52
  • E58
  • E61
  • E62
  • G18
Accès libre

Monitoring the Quality of Services in Electronic Banking

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 99 - 119

Résumé

Abstract

Successful development of electronic banking is in direct correlation with the quality of services in electronic banking. Therefore, it is necessary that the banks are familiar with the attributes of electronic services on which clients assess the bank’s quality and client’s satisfaction with them, in order to be able to monitor, correct and improve the performance of electronic banking. We start from the hypothesis that there are already developed theoretical models for measuring the quality of e-banking services but they must be adjusted to the specific environment that is analysed in order to obtain reliable and quality information. The qualitative and quantitative research methods are applied in this paper in order to a get adjusted theoretical model (instrument) for measuring the quality of electronic banking services. As a result of the conducted analysis, the initial theoretical model has been modified, so that the final version of the model (instrument) for measuring quality of online banking allows obtaining reliable data, and information in the particular environment. And the results are: significant information about the quality of e-banking, modified theoretical model, information about the dimensions of quality of e-banking, customer satisfaction, and pathways and guidelines for the improvement of e-banking. The measuring of quality of electronic banking services in not one time activity but repeated one, as permanent monitoring strategy. This research is widely applicable even though it was conducted in the context of Montenegrin e-banking, since most of the banks in Montenegro are owned by well-known European banks, and it is expected that the obtained knowledge and information can be generalized.

Mots clés

  • electronic banking
  • electronic services
  • service quality
  • models
  • information technology

JEL

  • G21
  • D80
  • L00
  • l86
Accès libre

Affirmation of the Legal Status of Taxpayers in Montenegro

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 121 - 138

Résumé

Abstract

Public needs cannot be adequately funded without a clear and legally based affirmative legal status of taxpayers. The promotion and protection of their rights and regular fulfilment of tax obligations by taxpayers is the basis of fiscal and financial stability of the country and other public collectivities. It is essential for Montenegro to overcome the traditional gap between taxpayers and tax administration through their partnership. At the same time, we must not jeopardize the basic purpose of taxation - legal and timely payment of taxes. Simple and stable tax regulations and a non-discriminating and subtle approach to building tax discipline and development of tax morale should serve that purpose.

Mots clés

  • improvement and protection of taxpayer rights
  • fulfilment of tax obligations
  • functional legal status of taxpayers
  • country and taxpayer partnership

JEL

  • H20
  • K34
Accès libre

Investment in Research and Development - A Factor of Adjustment of Montenegro to the EU Economy

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 139 - 164

Résumé

Abstract

Montenegro and other Western Balkan countries are characterized by historical mortgages, political instability, commenced but uncompleted structural reforms and unfavourable economic situation, which all contributed to their lagging behind other EU member states. In addition to this, these countries have been faced with a low level of investment in research and development, unfavourable educational structure, low level of innovation and a lack of awareness about the importance of research and development in modern economies.

The economic and political situation led to their determination to become a full EU member, which requires the fulfilment of specified criteria, implementation of structural reforms and “catching up” with other EU member states. Investment into research and development are found to be the key factor for fulfilling their objective – EU membership.

Mots clés

  • economic growth
  • EU
  • expenditure
  • Montenegro
  • research and development

JEL

  • F15
  • O32
Accès libre

Over-reaction to Policy Signals, and Central Bank Optimal Communication Policy

Publié en ligne: 23 Sep 2016
Pages: 165 - 187

Résumé

Abstract

This paper reviews the theoretical arguments and counter arguments regarding central bank optimal communication policy in an environment with imperfect common knowledge and strategic complementarity. More specifically, the paper discusses the environment in which full transparency is no longer necessarily the superior strategy. Uncertainty about the underlying economic state in the presence of dispersed information is the basis for the emergence of imperfect common knowledge. These issues are further discussed in an augmented Lucas-island model. Full policy transparency in this setting leads to overreliance to central bank public policy signals, resulting in the expectations coordination away from fundamentals - dubbed as over-reaction to central bank announcements. Optimal communication policy in this context entails strategies to limit over-reaction via partial transparency or partial publicity.

Mots clés

  • Optimal communication policy
  • imperfect common knowledge
  • strategic complementarity
  • full transparency

JEL

  • E52
  • E58
  • D82

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