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The Impact of Circulation Types and their Changing Thermal Properties on the Probability of Days with Snowfall and Rainfall in Poland, 1966–2020

Ewa B. Łupikasza

Ewa B. Łupikasza

Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in KatowiceKatowice, Poland
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Łupikasza, Ewa B.
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Łukasz Małarzewski

Łukasz Małarzewski

Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in KatowiceKatowice, Poland
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Małarzewski, Łukasz
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Quoc B. Pham

Quoc B. Pham

Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Silesia in KatowiceKatowice, Poland
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Pham, Quoc B.
  
19 août 2024
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Publié en ligne: 19 août 2024
Pages: 47 - 64
Reçu: 20 oct. 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2024-0025
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© 2024 Ewa B. Łupikasza et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1.

Location of synoptic stations used in this study in Poland (A), and distribution of grids over Poland for which circulation types were identified (B), an example distribution of grids for calculating geostrophic wind used to identify a direction of air advection (C).
Location of synoptic stations used in this study in Poland (A), and distribution of grids over Poland for which circulation types were identified (B), an example distribution of grids for calculating geostrophic wind used to identify a direction of air advection (C).

Fig. 2.

Long-term variability in the number of days with precipitation phases averaged over stations (graphs) and spatial distribution of trends (maps) in the number of days with precipitation phases (Sd, solid; Mx, mixed; Lq, liquid, yellow) in the period 1966–2020.
Long-term variability in the number of days with precipitation phases averaged over stations (graphs) and spatial distribution of trends (maps) in the number of days with precipitation phases (Sd, solid; Mx, mixed; Lq, liquid, yellow) in the period 1966–2020.

Fig. 3.

Conditional probability of solid (Sd, blue), mixed (Mx, green) and liquid (Lq, orange) precipitation in circulation types, Poland, 1966–2020, a – boxplots: statistical distribution of the station probabilities of precipitation phases for each circulation type; cross – mean; horizontal line – median; box – 25th and 75the percentiles; whiskers – limits for outliers.
Conditional probability of solid (Sd, blue), mixed (Mx, green) and liquid (Lq, orange) precipitation in circulation types, Poland, 1966–2020, a – boxplots: statistical distribution of the station probabilities of precipitation phases for each circulation type; cross – mean; horizontal line – median; box – 25th and 75the percentiles; whiskers – limits for outliers.

Fig. 4.

Spatial distribution of the conditional probability of solid (Sd, blue), mixed (Mx, green) and liquid (Lq, orange) precipitation in cyclonic advective circulation types in DJF.
Spatial distribution of the conditional probability of solid (Sd, blue), mixed (Mx, green) and liquid (Lq, orange) precipitation in cyclonic advective circulation types in DJF.

Fig. 5.

Average air temperature for circulation types, box-plots –average seasonal station air temperature for the entire research period 1966–2020, red cross – mean; horizontal line – median; box – 25th and 75th percentiles; whiskers – limits for outliers (upper panel). Averaged over stations range of change in air temperature between the cold period 1966–1985 and the warm period 2001–2020 for circulation types (lower panel).
Average air temperature for circulation types, box-plots –average seasonal station air temperature for the entire research period 1966–2020, red cross – mean; horizontal line – median; box – 25th and 75th percentiles; whiskers – limits for outliers (upper panel). Averaged over stations range of change in air temperature between the cold period 1966–1985 and the warm period 2001–2020 for circulation types (lower panel).

Fig. 6.

Differences (tendencies) in air temperature between 1966–1985 and 2001–2020 for advective cyclonic circulation types.
Differences (tendencies) in air temperature between 1966–1985 and 2001–2020 for advective cyclonic circulation types.

Fig. 7.

Conditional probability of precipitation phases (Sd – solid; Mx – mixed; Lq – liquid) in the cold 1966–1985 and warm 2001–2020 periods averaged over stations for circulation types.
Conditional probability of precipitation phases (Sd – solid; Mx – mixed; Lq – liquid) in the cold 1966–1985 and warm 2001–2020 periods averaged over stations for circulation types.

Fig. 8.

Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in DJF.
Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in DJF.

Fig. 9.

Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in MAM.
Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in MAM.

Fig. 10.

Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in SON.
Spatial distribution of tendencies (differences between the 20-year periods) in the conditional probability of precipitation phases for cyclonic advective circulation types in SON.

Classification of circulation types_

Anticyclonic types Cyclonic types Direction of air advection
Na Nc Northern
NEa NEc Northeastern
Ea Ec Eastern
Sea Sec Southeastern
Sa Sa Southern
SWa SWc Southwestern
Wa Wc Western
NWa NWc Northwestern
Oa Oc Non-advective types
Langue:
Anglais
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Géosciences, Géographie
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