Double Jeopardy: How Refugees Fare in One European Labor Market

Dries Lens; Ive Marx; Sunčica Vujić

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Double Jeopardy: How Refugees Fare in One European Labor Market

Dries Lens

Ive Marx

Sunčica Vujić

| 16 nov 2019

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Volumen 10 (2019): Edición 1 (June 2019)

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Publicado en línea: 16 nov 2019

Páginas: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2019-0008

Palabras clave
discrete-time hazard models, labor market integration, longitudinal research, refugees

© 2019 Dries Lens, Ive Marx and Sunčica Vujić, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

Number of registered immigrations and asylum seekers (first application) in Belgium, 1985–2016.Source: Eurostat between 1985 and 1995, Immigration Office-National Register (calculations N. Perrin) between 1996 and 2007 and Immigration Office-Eurostat between 2008 and 2016. Note: This paper focuses on the 1999–2009 entry cohort (indicated by the black frame in the figure).

Quarterly distribution of socioeconomic positions by time since arrival, refugees.Source: BLFS-LM&SP, own calculations.

Quarterly distribution of socioeconomic positions by time since arrival, family migrants.Source: BLFS-LM&SP, own calculations.

Quarterly distribution of socioeconomic positions by time since arrival, labor migrants.Source: BLFS-LM&SP, own calculations.

Quarterly distribution of socioeconomic positions by calendar year, native-born.Source: BLFS-LM&SP, own calculations. Note: The break in the data from Q1 2003 onward is due to the fact that information on social assistance, child allowances, incapacity-to-work and invalidity benefits, occupational diseases and some pensions was only then integrated in the LM&SP.

Share of migrants (per migration motive) and native-born who are receiving invalidity and incapacity-to-work benefits by calendar year.Source: BLFS-LM&SP, own calculations.

Overview of the work regimes in place for asylum seekers in Belgium, 1999–2014

Period	Work regime (in general)
January 1, 1999–March 31, 2003	Asylum seekers can work with work permit B
April 1, 2003–May 31, 2007	Admissible asylum seekers can work with work permit C
June 1, 2007–January 11, 2010	Asylum seekers can work if no negative decision 6 months after asylum application with work permit C
January 12, 2011–December 31, 2014	Asylum seekers can work if no negative decision 6 months after asylum application with work permit C, but asylum seekers who work need to contribute to the cost of the reception center
	Asylum seekers who have substantially secure income from employment need to leave the reception center

Odds ratios – exit out of first employment spell

	(1) ALL	(2) UNEMP	(3) SA	(4) Other
Constant	0.78	0.04***	0.02*	0.82
Specification of hazard
Linear specification of time	1.02***	0.94***	0.97	1.03***
Natural logarithm of time	0.47***	1.32*	0.34***	0.40***
Comparison group (labor is ref. category)
Family	1.40***	1.36**	0.84	1.47***
Refugee	1.77***	3.15***	5.03***	0.72*
Sex (female is ref. category)
Male	0.83***	0.85*	1.10	0.81**
Age at arrival
Age	0.92***	0.95	0.94	0.90***
Age squared	1.00**	1.00	1.00	1.00**
Highest level of education(low is ref. category)
Medium	0.82***	0.75**	0.70*	0.86**
High	0.68***	0.49***	0.43***	0.78***
Region of residence(Brussels is ref. category)
Flanders	1.10*	0.95	0.78*	1.18**
Wallonia	1.14**	1.45***	1.38*	1.04
Region of origin (EU is ref. category)
Europe non-EU	1.40***	1.72**	3.40***	1.29*
Turkey and North Africa	1.74***	3.00***	3.51***	1.40***
Sub-Saharan Africa	1.97***	1.95***	7.47***	1.70***
Asia	1.48***	0.87	5.04***	1.48***
America	1.03	0.57	1.61	1.11

N	6,305	6,305	6,305	6,305

Odds ratios – job characteristics (models A, B and C) and OLS estimates – log earnings (model D)

	(1) Low skill job	(2) Over qualification	(3) Bad job	(4) Ln (earn)
(Native-born = ref. category)
Labor	1.81***	1.86***	0.98	-0.17***
Family	4.45***	5.58***	2.03***	-0.56***
Refugee	4.65***	7.61***	2.38**	-0.85***

N	22,835	18,192	22,983	14,776

Characteristics of refugees, other migrants and natives

	Refugees	Family migrants	Labor migrants	Native-born
Sex
Female	43.5	65.8	38.2	49.2
Male	56.5	34.2	61.8	50.8
Age at arrival (mean)	29.6	30.1	31.6
Highest level of education
Low	52.4	44.5	28.5	27.3
Medium	28.9	29.8	32.2	37.5
High	18.7	25.7	39.3	35.2
Region of residence
Brussels	23.6	33.6	40.5	5.7
Flanders	53.4	43.0	41.4	62.5
Wallonia	23.0	23.4	18.0	31.8
Region of origin
EU	1.5	25.7	75.8
Europe non-EU	30.6	7.4	3.0
Turkey and North Africa	7.2	39.2	9.4
Sub-Saharan Africa	33.4	10.4	5.0
Asia	26.7	11.7	4.2
USA	0.6	5.5	2.6
Year of arrival
1999	6.1	3.6	5.6
2000	3.9	4.8	6.7
2001	5.6	6.2	6.8
2002	12.6	7.8	8.3
2003	9.8	9.8	9.0
2004	12.4	12.9	10.5
2005	14.1	15.6	13.7
2006	11.2	14.8	13.7
2007	14.7	12.8	12.0
2008	6.8	8.8	8.3
2009	2.8	2.9	5.4
Survey year
2008	11.7	12.4	12.8	20.2
2009	14.4	16.6	16.4	20.2
2010	19.2	20.6	20.3	20.2
2011	24.5	25.8	25.2	19.9
2012	30.2	24.6	25.4	19.5

N	401	4,383	3,387	20,920

Odds ratios – entry into the first employment spell (robustness checks)

	(1) Refugee ad hoc	(2) Non-EU origin	(3) Home country education	(4) Entry cohort 2003–2009
(Labor = ref. category)
Family	0.34***	0.46***	0.31***	0.29***
Refugee	0.26***	0.17***	0.013***	0.11***
Family*time	1.02	1.00	1.03***	1.04***
Refugee*time	1.07**	1.07***	1.10***	1.12***

N	458	4,348	7,671	6,451

eISSN:: 2520-1786
Idioma:: Inglés

Calendario de la edición:: Volume Open
Temas de la revista:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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Double Jeopardy: How Refugees Fare in One European Labor Market

Publicado en línea: 16 nov 2019

Páginas: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2019-0008

Palabras clave
discrete-time hazard models, labor market integration, longitudinal research, refugees

© 2019 Dries Lens, Ive Marx and Sunčica Vujić, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 1A

Figure 2A

Overview of the work regimes in place for asylum seekers in Belgium, 1999–2014

Odds ratios – exit out of first employment spell

Odds ratios – job characteristics (models A, B and C) and OLS estimates – log earnings (model D)

Characteristics of refugees, other migrants and natives

Odds ratios – entry into the first employment spell (robustness checks)

Double Jeopardy: How Refugees Fare in One European Labor Market

Publicado en línea: 16 nov 2019

Páginas: -

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2019-0008

Palabras clavediscrete-time hazard models, labor market integration, longitudinal research, refugees

© 2019 Dries Lens, Ive Marx and Sunčica Vujić, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Public License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 1A

Figure 2A

Overview of the work regimes in place for asylum seekers in Belgium, 1999–2014

Odds ratios – exit out of first employment spell

Odds ratios – job characteristics (models A, B and C) and OLS estimates – log earnings (model D)

Characteristics of refugees, other migrants and natives

Odds ratios – entry into the first employment spell (robustness checks)

Palabras clave
discrete-time hazard models, labor market integration, longitudinal research, refugees