Research on Financial Risk Early Warning of Listed Companies Based on Stochastic Effect Mode
, , y | 27 jul 2021
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Publicado en línea: 27 jul 2021
Páginas: 395 - 402
Recibido: 12 abr 2021
Aceptado: 07 jul 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns.2021.2.00027
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© 2021 Liduo Zhang et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Estimation results of random effect model.
| Estimate | Std. Error | Z value | Pr(>|z|) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | −2.714 | 0.754 | −3.60 | 0.0003 | *** |
| Factor l | 5.643 | 1.386 | 4.07 | 0.0000 | *** |
| Factor 2 | −2.289 | 0.883 | −2.59 | 0.0095 | ** |
| Factor 3 | −1.383 | 0.752 | −1.84 | 0.0661 | . |
| Factor 4 | 0.491 | 0.465 | 1.06 | 0.2908 | |
| Factor 5 | 1.350 | 0.521 | 2.59 | 0.0096 | ** |
Prediction results of generalized estimation equation.
| Actual value | Predicted value | Accuracy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST | Non ST | ||
| ST | 46 | 4 | 92% |
| Non ST | 1 | 49 | 98% |
Prediction results of random effect model.
| Actual value | Predicted value | Accuracy rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST | Non ST | ||
| ST | 47 | 3 | 94% |
| Non ST | 1 | 49 | 98% |
Financial evaluation factors of listed companies.
| Financial evaluation factors of listed companies |
| Net cash flow from operating activities |
| Retained profits |
| Provision for information loss |
| Depreciation and amortization |
| Deferred income tax expense (revenue) |
| Investment loss (gain) |
| Investment/asset impairment charges |
| Amortization of debt and issuance costs |
| Gain (loss) from business disposal |
| Stock-based compensation |
| Accounts receivable |
| Loans |
| Inventory |
| Prepaid expenses |
| Payables |
| Income tax payable |
| Accrued liabilities |
| Other working capital |
| Other non-cash items |
| Other assets and liabilities |
| Other business activities |
| Net cash flow from investment activities |
| Fixed-asset investment |
| Purchase |
| Acquisition and disposal |
| Property and equipment |
| Purchase of investment assets |
| Debt/sales investment |
| Purchase of intangible assets |
| Other investment activities |
| Net cash flow from financing activities |
| Cash flow from financing activities |
| Long term bond issue |
| Long term bond repayment |
| Bond issue |
| Bond redemption |
| Common Stock issue |
| Common stock repurchase |
| Stock repurchase |
| Change in short-term borrowing |
| Dividend payments |
| Other financial activities |
| The impact of exchange rate movements |
| Change in net cash |
| Operating cash flow |
| Capital expenditure |
| Free cash flow |
| Initial cash flow |
| Ending cash flow |
Estimation results of generalized estimation equation.
| Estimate | Std. Error | Wald | Pr(>|W|) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | −1.4170 | 0.2233 | 40.277 | 0.0000 | *** |
| Factor l | 3.0746 | 0.6937 | 19.641 | 0.0000 | *** |
| Factor 2 | −0.9254 | 0.3002 | 9.500 | 0.0021 | ** |
| Factor 3 | −0.3116 | 0.2683 | 1.349 | 0.2455 | |
| Factor 4 | 0.3442 | 0.1998 | 2.966 | 0.0851 | . |
| Factor 5 | 0.5249 | 0.2064 | 6.469 | 0.0110 | * |