<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>Recently, time series forecasting modelling in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has attracted the attention of the scientific community. Several research projects have tackled the problem of CPI prediction for their countries using statistical learning, machine learning and deep neural networks. The most popular approach to CPI in several countries is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) due to the nature of the data. This paper addresses the Cuban CPI forecasting problem using Transformer with attention model over univariate dataset. The fine tuning of the lag parameter shows that Cuban CPI has better performance with small lag and that the best result was in p = 1. Finally, the comparative results between ARIMA and our proposal show that the Transformer with attention has a very high performance despite having a small data set.</p>
</abstract>

Recently, time series forecasting modelling in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has attracted the attention of the scientific community. Several research projects have tackled the problem of CPI prediction for their countries using statistical learning, machine learning and deep neural networks. The most popular approach to CPI in several countries is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) due to the nature of the data. This paper addresses the Cuban CPI forecasting problem using Transformer with attention model over univariate dataset. The fine tuning of the lag parameter shows that Cuban CPI has better performance with small lag and that the best result was in p = 1. Finally, the comparative results between ARIMA and our proposal show that the Transformer with attention has a very high performance despite having a small data set.

Cuban Consumer Price Index Forecasting Through Transformer with Attention

Universidad de las Ciencias Informáticas

Journal of Automation, Mobile Robotics and Intelligent Systems

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

{"article-title":"Cuban Consumer Price Index Forecasting Through Transformer with Attention"}

Recently, time series forecasting modelling in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has attracted the attention of the scientific community. Several research...

Cuban Consumer Price Index Forecasting Through Transformer with Attention

Publicado en línea: 26 ene 2024

Páginas: 12 - 17

Recibido: 10 ene 2023

Aceptado: 01 ago 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14313/jamris/2-2023/11

Palabras clave
Consumer price index, Time series forecasting, Transformer with attention, ARIMA, LSTM

© 2023 Reynaldo Rosado et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Cuban Consumer Price Index Forecasting Through Transformer with Attention

Publicado en línea: 26 ene 2024

Páginas: 12 - 17

Recibido: 10 ene 2023

Aceptado: 01 ago 2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14313/jamris/2-2023/11

Palabras claveConsumer price index, Time series forecasting, Transformer with attention, ARIMA, LSTM

© 2023 Reynaldo Rosado et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Palabras clave
Consumer price index, Time series forecasting, Transformer with attention, ARIMA, LSTM