The Effectiveness of China's Foreign Trade Liberalization

Explanatory variable	OLS (1)	FE (2)	RE (3)	FE (year) (4)	RE (year) (5)
Total GDP	2.590^*** (0.097)	2.115^*** (0.230)	2.425^*** (0.263)	1.910^*** (0.186)	2.093^*** (0.200)
Similarity index	1.395^*** (0.028)	0.559^*** (0.203)	1.094^*** (0.122)	0.565^*** (0.197)	1.181^*** (0.112)
Sum of K/L ratio	0.159^* (0.061)	0.199 (0.334)	0.642^** (0.254)	−0.040 (0.385)	0.402 (0.258)
Difference of K/L ratio	0.253^*** (0.046)	−0.061 (0.069)	−0.013 (0.073)	−0.039 (0.072)	0.021 (0.073)
Sum of T/L ratio	0.047 (0.591)	−1.716^* (0.984)	0.390 (0.244)	−1.689^* (1.012)	0.421^* (0.248)
Difference of T/L ratio	0.356^*** (0.054)	− 0.118 (0.191)	−0.139 (0.147)	−0.121 (0.197)	−0.025 (0.147)
Distance	−0.943^*** (0.090)	(omitted)	−1.326^*** (0.333)	(omitted)	−1.338^*** (0.328)
RTA-APTA	−0.980^*** (0.159)	−0.364^* (0.205)	−0.600^** (0.240)	−0.382^* (0.214)	−0.654^** (0.263)
RTA-HONGKONG	0.624^** (0.247)	−1.759^*** (0.141)	−1.827^*** (0.132)	−1.912^*** (0.158)	−1.967^*** (0.140)
RTA-MACAO	−0.481 (0.377)	−1.925^*** (0.227)	−2.459^*** (0.135)	−1.998^*** (0.231)	−2.551^*** (0.145)
RTA-ASEAN	1.060^*** (0.128)	−0.301 (0.376)	−0.293 (0.390)	−0.333 (0.150)	−0.375 (0.156)
RTA-CHILE	2.438^*** (0.114)	(omitted)	3.221^*** (0.377)	(omitted)	3.062^*** (0.361)
RTA-PAKISTAN	−0.470^*** (0.176)	−1.449^*** (0.290)	−1.214^*** (0.250)	−1.498^*** (0.297)	−1.280^*** (0.253)
RTA-NEWZEALAND	1.448^*** 11111(0.124)	−0.430^*** (0.149)	−0.162 (0.129)	−0.544^*** (0.165)	−0.263^** (0.126)
RTA-PERU	1.848^*** (0.146)	−0.530^*** (0.144)	−0.378^*** (0.114)	−0.618^*** (0.137)	−0.485^*** (0.110)
RTA-COSTA RICA	4.386^*** (0.251)	0.796^*** (0.220)	1.337^*** (0.209)	0.737^*** (0.221)	1.348^*** (0.206)
RTA – SWITZERLAND	2.251^*** (0.080)	0.478^*** (0.122)	0.394^*** (0.120)	0.527^*** (0.147)	0.422^*** (0.127)
RTA – ICELAND	−1.097^*** (0.144)	−1.101^*** (0.172)	−0.802^*** (0.136)	−1.081^*** (0.192)	−0.757^*** (0.139)
WTO	0.481^*** (0.126)	0.165 (0.132)	0.342^** (0.144)	0.284 (0.540)	0.867^** (0.425)
Constant	−9.158^*** (1.166)	−24.027^*** (3.915)	−5.563 (3.861)	−22.489^*** (3.765)	−2.584^*** (2.141)
F-test (P-value)		25.30 (0.0000)		25.50 (0.0000)
LM-test (P-value)			5904.34 (0.0000)		6083.48 (0.000)
Hausman test (P-value)				119.57 (0.0000)
R² overall	0.7135	0.1801	0.6844	0.1675	0.6932
R² within		0.4320	0.4164	0.4443	0.4270
R² between		0.1238	0.7580	0.1089	0.7695
Number of Observations	2841	2841	2841	2841	2841
RETEST (p-value)	(0.0000)	(0.6031)	(0.0226)	(0.4223)	(0.0101)

Dependent Variable: Total Exports

Explanatory variable	OLS (1)	FE (2)	RE (3)	FE (year) (4)	RE (year) (5)
Total GDP	2.337^*** (0.080)	2.324^*** (0.248)	2.337^*** (0.226)	1.996^*** (0.150)	2.005^*** (0.136)
Similarity index	0.920^*** (0.013)	0.833^*** (0.093)	0.858^*** (0.062)	0.870^*** (0.090)	0.903^*** (0.061)
Sum of K/L ratio	0.081^* (0.048)	0.263 (0.146)	0.264 (0.171)	−0.040 (0.134)	−0.001 (0.117)
Difference of K/L ratio	0.087^*** (0.024)	−0.003 (0.038)	−0.001 (0.037)	0.024 (0.495)	0.024 (0.034)
Sum of T/L ratio	−0.446^*** (0.053)	−0.320 (0.572)	−0.344 (0.233)	−0.035 (0.540)	−0.271 (0.223)
Difference of T/L ratio	0.231^*** (0.033)	0.123 (0.144)	0.144 (0.128)	0.112 (0.132)	0.139 (0.121)
Distance	−0.460^*** (0.056)	(omitted)	−0.664^*** (0.206)	(omitted)	−0.747^*** (0.205)
RTA-APTA	−0.369^*** (0.086)	−0.450^** (0.218)	−0.451^** (0.200)	−0.446^** (0.207)	−0.449^** (0.190)
RTA-HONGKONG	2.760^*** (0.127)	−0.670^*** (0.108)	−0.575^*** (0.084)	−0.860^*** (0.089)	−0.747^*** (0.068)
RTA-MACAO	0.187 (0.235)	−1.606^*** (0.118)	−1.577^*** (0.078)	−1.706^*** (0.113)	−1.669^*** (0.077)
RTA-ASEAN	0.418^*** (0.087)	−0.306 (0.186)	−0.291 (0.179)	−0.410^** (0.175)	−0.389^** (0.170)
RTA-CHILE	1.052^*** (0.078)	(omitted)	1.221^*** (0.227)	(omitted)	1.216^*** (0.230)
RTA-PAKISTAN	−0.008 (0.092)	−0.221 (0.217)	−0.191 (0.195)	−0.347^* (0.204)	−0.318^* (0.188)
RTA-NEWZEALAND	0.520^*** (0.057)	−0.281^*** (0.093)	−0.262^*** (0.093)	−0.440^*** (0.073)	−0.407^*** (0.069)
RTA-PERU	0.426^*** (0.067)	0.363^*** (0.067)	0.361^*** (0.061)	0.374^*** (0.066)	0.356^*** (0.056)
RTA-COSTA RICA	0.215^* (0.121)	−0.154^* (0.093)	−0.128 (0.090)	−0.080 (0.091)	−0.600 (0.087)
RTA – SWITZERLAND	−1.310^*** (0.045)	−1.088^*** (0.095)	−1.101^*** (0.087)	−1.057^*** (0.081)	−1.048^*** (0.072)
RTA – ICELAND	−0.776^*** (0.077)	−0.255^** (0.101)	−0.253^*** (0.094)	−0.237^*** (0.082)	−0.206^*** (0.070)
WTO	0.205^** (0.080)	0.136^* (0.080)	0.140^* (0.082)	0.940^*** (0.278)	0.853^*** (0.238)
Constant	−13.999^*** (0.732)	−18.176^*** (2.125)	−12.221^*** (2.611)	−15.355^*** (1.652)	−7.578^*** (2.141)
F-test (P-value)		68.43 (0.0000)		74.81 (0.0000)
LM-test (P-value)			14333.58 (0.000)		14892.82 (0.000)
Hausman test (P-value)			42.95 (0.0005)		54.93 (0.0172)
R² overall	0.824	0.7843	0.8053	0.7604	0.8056
R² within		0.8110	0.8109	0.8280	0.8277
R² between		0.7770	0.7995	0.7460	0.7968
Number of Observations	2902	2926	2926	2926	2926
RETEST (p-value)	(0.1890)	(0.0182)	(0.0204)	(0.0283)	(0.0003)

Dependent Variable: Trade Volume

Explanatory variable	OLS (1)	FE (2)	RE (3)	FE (year) (4)	RE (year) (5)
Total GDP	2.317^*** (0.058)	2.233^*** (0.224)	2.285^*** (0.222)	1.917^*** (0.126)	1.939^*** (0.122)
Similarity index	0.970^*** (0.014)	0.784^*** (0.091)	0.858^*** (0.063)	0.821^*** (0.081)	0.908^*** (0.058)
Sum of K/L ratio	0.177^*** (0.045)	0.150 (0.184)	0.270 (0.179)	−0.166 (0.149)	−0.024 (0.135)
Difference of K/L ratio	0.070^*** (0.023)	−0.020 (0.037)	−0.010 (0.038)	0.009 (0.035)	0.017 (0.035)
Sum of T/L ratio	−0.276^*** (0.052)	−1.075^* (0.572)	−0.328 (0.213)	−0.814 (0.558)	−0.269 (0.211)
Difference of T/L ratio	0.259^*** (0.032)	0.165 (0.137)	0.148 (0.115)	0.153 (0.131)	0.142 (0.112)
Distance	−0.553^*** (0.056)	(omitted)	−0.722^*** (0.216)	(omitted)	−0.795^*** (0.209)
RTA-APTA	−0.450^*** (0.093)	−0.338 (0.206)	−0.406^** (0.198)	−0.329 (0.199)	−0.402^** (0.192)
RTA-HONGKONG	2.326^*** (0.129)	−0.706^*** (0.097)	−0.667^*** (0.083)	−0.895^*** (0.085)	−0.839^*** (0.069)
RTA-MACAO	−0.088 (0.246)	−1.514^*** (0.116)	−1.610^*** (0.083)	−1.607^*** (0.111)	−1.697^*** (0.083)
RTA-ASEAN	0.544^*** (0.087)	−0.287^* (0.158)	−0.285^* (0.162)	−0.372^** (0.150)	−0.375^** (0.156)
RTA-CHILE	1.471^*** (0.078)	(omitted)	1.848^*** (0.230)	(omitted)	1.833^*** (0.226)
RTA-PAKISTAN	−0.194^** (0.091)	−0.303 (0.201)	−0.304^* (0.175)	−0.410^** (0.194)	−0.419^** (0.169)
RTA-NEWZEALAND	0.690^*** (0.065)	−0.241^** (0.099)	−0.170^* (0.097)	−0.404^*** (0.080)	−0.325^*** (0.073)
RTA-PERU	0.752^*** (0.086)	−0.088 (0.077)	−0.033 (0.067)	−0.112 (0.071)	−0.079 (0.058)
RTA-COSTA RICA	1.591^*** (0.130)	0.514^*** (0.109)	0.609^*** (0.103)	0.550^*** (0.107)	0.642^*** (0.101)
RTA – SWITZERLAND	0.894^*** (0.043)	0.244^*** (0.090)	0.234^*** (0.086)	0.244^*** (0.082)	0.247^*** (0.073)
RTA – ICELAND	−1.366^*** (0.076)	−0.501^*** (0.115)	−0.450^*** (0.105)	−0.517^*** (0.096)	−0.444^*** (0.081)
WTO	0.208^*** (0.069)	0.134 (0.081)	0.176^** (0.086)	0.885^*** (0.326)	0.929^*** (0.280)
Constant	−11.519^*** (0.732)	−19.372^*** (2.205)	−10.729^*** (2.550)	−16.674^*** (1.757)	−7.578^*** (2.141)
F-test (P-value)		62.92 (0.000)		68.08 (0.000)
LM-test (P-value)			13056.20 (0.000)		13523.72 (0.000)
Hausman test (P-value)		13.96 (0.6701)		22.85 (0.9432)
R² overall	0.824	0.655	0.805	0.694	0.804
R² within		0.791	0.789	0.807	0.806
R² between		0.622	0.805	0.672	0.802
Number of Observations	2902	2902	2902	2902	2902
RETEST (p-value)	(0.7347)	(0.0062)	(0.0019)	(0.0000)	(0.0003)

Sprache:: Englisch

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The Effectiveness of China's Foreign Trade Liberalization

Andrzej Cieślik

Tenzin Tseyang

Online veröffentlicht: 18. Sept. 2021

Seitenbereich: 238 - 245

Eingereicht: 25. Jan. 2020

Akzeptiert: 11. Mai 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2020-0064

SchlüsselwörterChina, trade liberalization, incomplete specialization, gravity model, WTO

© 2021 Andrzej Cieślik et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Dependent Variable: Total Imports

Dependent Variable: Total Exports

Dependent Variable: Trade Volume

Schlüsselwörter
China, trade liberalization, incomplete specialization, gravity model, WTO