Climate Change Impact on Potential Distribution of an Endemic Species Abies marocana Trabut

Achhal, A., Akabli, O., Barbero, M., Benabid, A., M’hirit, A., Peyre, C., Quezel, P. & Rivas-Martinez S. (1979). A propos de la valeur bioclimatique et dynamique de quelques essences forestières au Maroc. Ecol. Mediterr., 5, 211‒249.10.3406/ecmed.1979.960 Search in Google Scholar

Alaoui, A., Laaribya, S., Ayan, S., Ghallab, A. & López-Tirado J. (2021). Modelling spatial distribution of endemic Moroccan (Abies marocana Trabut) in Talassemtane National Park, Morocco. Austrian Journal of Forest Science, 138(2), 73‒94. Search in Google Scholar

Alaoui, M.L., Knees, S. & Gardner M. (2011). Abies pinsapo var. Marocana. Ceballos & Bolaño. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. DOI: 10.2305/IUCN.UK.2011-2.RLTS.T34126A9841418.en. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Alimonti, G., Mariani, L., Prodi, F. & Ricci R.A. (2022). A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming. The European Physical Journal Plus, 137(1), 112. DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Allouche, O., Tsoar, A. & Kadmon R. (2006). Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models : Prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS): Assessing the accuracy of distribution models. J. Appl. Ecol., 43(6), 1223‒1232. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01214.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Austin, M. (2007). Species distribution models and ecological theory : A critical assessment and some possible new approaches. Ecol. Model., 200(1–2), 1‒19. DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.07.005 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Barbero, M. & Quezel P. (1975). Les forêts de sapin sur le pourtour méditerranéen. Anales Inst. Bot. Cavanilies, 32(2), 1245‒1289. Search in Google Scholar

Benabid, A. (1982). Bref aperçu sur la zonation altitudinale de la végétation climacique du Maroc. Ecol. Mediterr., 8(1), 301‒315. DOI: 10.3406/ecmed.1982.1956. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Benabid, A. (2000). Flore et écosystèmes du Maroc : Evaluation et préservation de la biodiversité. Ibis Press & Kalila Wa Dimna. http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=XF2015030117 Search in Google Scholar

Benabou, A., Moukrim, S., Lahssini, S., El Aboudi, A., Menzou, K., Elmalki, M., El Madihi, M., & Rhazi, L. (2022). Impact of the climate change on potential distribution of Quercus suber in the conditions of North Africa. Biosyst. Divers., 30(3), 289‒294. DOI: 10.15421/012233. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Ben-Said, M., Ghallab, A., Lamrhari, H., Carreira, J.A., Linares, J.C. & Taïqui L. (2020). Characterizing spatial structure of Abies marocana forest through point pattern analysis. Forest Systems, 29(2), e014. DOI: 10.5424/fs/2020292-16754. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Brooks, T.M., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Ry-lands, A.B., Konstant, W.R., Flick, P., Pilgrim, J., Oldfield, S., Magin, G. & Hilton-Taylor C. (2002). Habitat Loss and Extinction in the Hotspots of Biodiversity. Conserv. Biol., 16(4), 909‒923. DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.00530.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Castro, I., Stan, A. B., Taiqui, L., Schiefer, E., Ghallab, A., Derak, M. & Fulé P.Z. (2022). Detecting Fire-Caused Forest Loss in a Moroccan Protected Area. Fire, 5(2), 51. DOI: 10.3390/fire5020051. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Di Nuzzo, L., Vallese, C., Benesperi, R., Giordani, P., Chiarucci, A., Di Cecco, V., Di Martino, L., Di Musciano, M., Gheza, G., Lelli, C., Spitale, D. & Nascimbene J. (2021). Contrasting multitaxon responses to climate change in Mediterranean mountains. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 4438. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83866-x.790482033627718 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Dinerstein, E., Olson, D., Joshi, A., Vynne, C., Burgess, N.D., Wikramanayake, E., Hahn, N., Palminteri, S., Hedao, P., Noss, R., Hansen, M., Locke, H., Ellis, E.C., Jones, B., Barber, C.V., Hayes, R., Kormos, C., Martin, V., Crist, E., Sechrest, W., Price, L., Baillie, J.E.M., Weede, D., Suckling, K., Davis, C., Sizer, N., Moore, R., Thau, D., Birch, T., Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Tyukavina, A., de Souza, N., Pintea, L., Brito, J.C., Llewellyn, O.A., Miller, A.G., Patzelt, A., Ghazanfar, S.A., Timber-lake, J., Klöser, H., Shennan-Farpón, Y., Kindt, R., Lillesø Barnekow, J.-P., van Breugel, P., Graudal, L., Voge M., Al-Shammari, K.F. & Saleem M. (2017). An Ecoregion-Based Approach to Protecting Half the Terrestrial Realm. BioScience, 67(6), 534‒545. DOI: 10.1093/biosci/bix014.545128728608869 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Driouech, F., Déqué, M. & Sánchez-Gómez E. (2010). Weather regimes—Moroccan precipitation link in a regional climate change simulation. Global and Planetary Change, 72(1), 1‒10. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.03.004. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Elith, J. & Graham C.H. (2009). Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models. Ecography, 32(1), 66‒77. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05505.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Elith, J., Graham, C.H., Anderson, R., Dudík, M., Ferrier, S.J., Hijmans, R., Guisan, A., Huettmann, F., Leathwick, J.R., Lehmann, A., Li, J. & Lohmann L.G. (2006). Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occurrence data. Ecography, 29(2), 129‒151. DOI: 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Fennane, M. & Ibn Tattou M. (2012). Statistiques et commentaires sur l’inventaire actuel de la flore vasculaire du Maroc. Bulletin de l’Institut Scientifique, Rabat, section Sciences de la Vie, 34(1), 1‒9. Search in Google Scholar

Fick, S.E. & Hijmans R.J. (2017). WorldClim 2 : New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12), 4302‒4315. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5086. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Fitzpatrick, M.C., Gotelli, N.J. & Ellison A.M. (2013). MaxEnt versus Max-Like : Empirical comparisons with ant species distributions. Ecosphere, 4(5), art55. DOI: 10.1890/ES13-00066.1. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Fordham, D.A., Resit Akçakaya, H., Araújo, M.B., Elith, J., Keith, D.A., Pearson, R., Auld, T.D., Mellin, C., Morgan, J.W., Regan, T.J., Tozer, M., Watts, M.J., White, M., Wintle, B.A., Yates, C. & Brook B.W. (2012). Plant extinction risk under climate change : Are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change Biology, 18(4), 1357‒1371. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Franklin, J. (2009). Mapping species distributions : Spatial inference and prediction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511810602. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Gazol, A., Camarero, J.J., Gutiérrez, E., Popa, I., Andreu-Hayles, L., Motta, R., Nola, P., Ribas, M., Sangüesa-Barreda, G., Urbinati, C. & Carrer M. (2015). Distinct effects of climate warming on populations of silver fir ( Abies alba ) across Europe. J. Biogeogr., 42(6), 1150‒1162. DOI: 10.1111/jbi.12512. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Gbetoho, A.J., Aoudji, A.K.N., Roxburgh, L. & Ganglo J.C. (2017). Assessing the suitability of pioneer species for secondary forest restoration in Benin in the context of global climate change. Bois For. Trop., 232(2), 43‒55. DOI: 10.19182/bft2017.332.a31332. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Gleckler, P.J., Taylor, K.E. & Doutriaux C. (2008). Performance metrics for climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 113(D6). DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008972 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Guisan, A., Thuiller, W. & Zimmermann N.E. (2017). Habitat suitability and distribution models with applications in R. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781139028271. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Guisan, A. & Zimmermann N.E. (2000). Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model., 135(2), 147‒186. DOI: 10.1016/s0304-3800(00)00354-9. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Hanley, J.A. & McNeil B.J. (1982). The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143(1), 29‒36. DOI: 10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747.7063747 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Hooper, D.U., Adair, E.C., Cardinale, B.J., Byrnes, J.E., Hungate, B.A., Matulich, K.L., Gonzalez, A., Duffy, J.E., Gamfeldt, L. & O’Connor M.I. (2012). A global synthesis reveals biodiversity loss as a major driver of ecosystem change. Nature, 486(7401), 105‒108. DOI: 10.1038/nature11118.22678289 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Hughes, L. (2000). Biological consequences of global warming : Is the signal already apparent? Trends Ecol. Evol., 15(2), 56‒61. DOI: 10.1016/S0169-5347(99)01764-4. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Iler, A.M., Compagnoni, A., Inouye, D.W., Williams, J.L., CaraDonna, P.J., Anderson, A. & Miller T.E.X. (2019). Reproductive losses due to climate change-induced earlier flowering are not the primary threat to plant population viability in a perennial herb. J. Ecol., 107(4), 1931‒1943. DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13146. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

IPCC (2013). Climate change 2013 : The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Search in Google Scholar

IPCC (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In : Climate Change 2021 : The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: 10.1017/9781009157896.001 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Khabbach, A., Libiad, M., Haissoufi, M.E., Bourgou, S., Megdiche, W., Lamchouri, F., Ghrabi-Gammar, Z., Menteli, V., Vokou, D., Tsoktouridis, G. & Krigas N. (2022). Electronic commerce of the endemic plants of northern Morocco (mediterranean coast-rif) and Tunisia over the internet. Botanical Sciences, 100(1), 139‒152. DOI: 10.17129/botsci.2850. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Knutti, R., Abramowitz, G., Eyring, V., Gleckler, P.J., Hewitson, B. & Mearns L. (2010). Good practice guidance paper on assessing and combining multi model climate projections. In T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor & P.M. Midgley (Eds.), Meeting Report of the IPCC Expert meeting on assessing and combining multi model climate projections (pp. 1‒11). IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern. https://academicjournals.org/journal/JENE/article-abstract/C1CDB822968. Search in Google Scholar

Kriegler, E., O’Neill, B.C., Hallegatte, S., Kram, T., Lempert, R.J., Moss, R.H. & Wilbanks T. (2012). The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis : A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change, 22(4), 807‒822. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Linares, J.C. (2011). Biogeography and evolution of Abies (Pinaceae) in the Mediterranean Basin : The roles of long-term climatic change and glacial refugia: Biogeography and evolution of the circum-Mediterranean firs. J. Biogeogr., 38(4), 619‒630. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02458.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

López-Tirado, J. & Hidalgo P.J. (2014). A high resolution predictive model for relict trees in the Mediterranean-mountain forests (Pinus sylvestris L., P. nigra Arnold and Abies pinsapo Boiss.) from the south of Spain : A reliable management tool for reforestation. For. Ecol. Manag., 330, 105‒114. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2014.07.009. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Malcolm, J.R., Liu, C., Neilson, R.P., Hansen, L. & Hannah L. (2006). Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conserv. Biol., 20(2), 538‒548. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00364.x.16903114 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

McCarty, J.P. (2001). Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conserv. Biol., 15(2), 320‒331. DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2001.015002320.x Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Medail, F. & Quezel P. (1997). Hot-spots analysis for conservation of plant biodiversity in the mediterranean basin. Ann. Mo. Bot. Gard., 84(1), 112. DOI: 10.2307/2399957. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Merow, C., Smith, M.J. & Silander J.A. (2013). A practical guide to MaxEnt for modeling species’ distributions : What it does, and why inputs and settings matter. Ecography, 36(10), 1058‒1069. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.07872.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Miller, R.G. (1974). An Unbalanced Jackknife. Annals of Statistics, 2(5), 880‒891. DOI: DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176342811. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Moore, H.M., Fox, H.R., Harrouni, M.C. & Alami A.E. (1998). Environmental challenges in the Rif mountains, northern Morocco. Environ. Conserv., 25(4), 354‒365. DOI: 10.1017/S0376892998000435. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Moritz, C. & Agudo R. (2013). The Future of Species Under Climate Change : Resilience or Decline? Science, 341(6145), 504‒508. DOI: 10.1126/science.1237190.23908228 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Moukrim, S., Lahssini, S., Rhazi, M., Alaoui, H.M., Benabou, A., Wahby, I., El Madihi, M., Arahou, M. & Rhazi L. (2019). Climate change impacts on potential distribution of multipurpose agro-forestry species : Argania spinosa (L.) Skeels as case study. Agrofor. Syst., 93(4), 1209‒1219. DOI: 10.1007/s10457-018-0232-8. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Moukrim, S., Lahssini, S., Rifai, N., Menzou, K., Mharzi-Alaoui, H., Labbaci, A., Rhazi, M., Wahby, I. W., El Madihi, M. & Rhazi L. (2020). Modélisation de la distribution potentielle de Cedrus atlantica Manetti au Maroc et impacts du changement climatique. Bois For. Trop., 344, 3‒16. DOI: 10.19182/bft2020.344.a31888. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., Da Fonseca, G.A. & Kent J. (2000). Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772), 853‒858. DOI: 10.1038/35002501.10706275 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M., Manzanedo, R.D., Rodriguez-Vallejo, C., Gazol, A., Palacios-Rodríguez, G. & Camarero J.J. (2020). Competition modulates the response of growth to climate in pure and mixed Abies pinsapo subsp. Maroccana forests in northern Morocco. For. Ecol. Manag., 459, 117847. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117847. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

NFI (2005). National Forest Inventory; High Commission for Water, Forests and Combating Desertification, Morocco.Map. Search in Google Scholar

Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. & Schapire R.E. (2006). Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model., 190(3‒4), 231‒259. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Phillips, S.J. & Dudík M. (2008). Modeling of species distributions with Maxent : New extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31(2), 161‒175. DOI: 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Pielke Jr, R., Burgess, M.G. & Ritchie J. (2022). Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100. Environmental Research Letters, 17(2), 024027. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ebf. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Pierce, D.W., Barnett, T.P., Santer, B.D. & Gleckler P.J. (2009). Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106(21), 8441‒8446. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0900094106.268900319439652 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Quezel, P. (1998). Diversité et répartition des sapins sur le pourtour méditerranéen. Forêt Méditerranéenne, 19(2), 93‒104. Search in Google Scholar

Savage, J. & Vellend M. (2015). Elevational shifts, biotic homogenization and time lags in vegetation change during 40 years of climate warming. Ecography, 38(6), 546‒555. DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01131. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Sánchez-Robles, J.M., Balao, F., Terrab, A., García-Castaño, J.L., Ortiz, M.A., Vela, E. & Talavera S. (2014). Phylogeography of SW Mediterranean firs : Different European origins for the North African Abies species. Mol. Phylogenet. Evol., 79, 42‒53. DOI: 10.1016/j.ympev.2014.06.005.24971738 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Sánchez-Velásquez, L. R., Pineda-López, M. del R., Ibarra-Zavaleta, S. P. & López-Serrano Y. (2021). Fir forest demography using matrix projections : Anomaly precipitation due to climatic change decrease population viability. For. Ecol. Manag., 482, 118845. DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118845. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Swets, J.A. (1988). Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems. Science, New Series, 240(4857), 1285‒1293. DOI: 10.1126/science.3287615.3287615 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Terhürne-Berson, R., Litt, T. & Cheddadi R. (2004). The spread of Abies throughout Europe since the last glacial period : Combined macrofossil and pollen data. Veg. Hist. Archaeobot., 13(4), 257‒268. DOI: 10.1007/s00334-004-0049-4. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F., De Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. & Williams S.E. (2004). Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427(6970), 145‒148. DOI: 10.1038/nature02121.14712274 Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Thuiller, W., Albert, C., Araújo, M.B., Berry, P.M., Cabeza, M., Guisan, A., Hickler, T., Midgley, G.F., Paterson, J., Schurr, F.M., Sykes, M.T. & Zimmermann N.E. (2008). Predicting global change impacts on plant species’ distributions : Future challenges. Perspect. Plant Ecol., Evolution and Systematics, 9(3‒4), 137‒152. DOI: 10.1016/j.ppees.2007.09.004. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Trabut, L. (1928). Le Sapin du Maroc. Abies maroccana Trab. (Soc. Bot. Fr., 1906). Bulletin de la Société Botanique de France, 75(5), 897‒902. DOI: 10.1080/00378941.1928.10837111. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Vitt, P., Havens, K., Kramer, A.T., Sollenberger, D. & Yates E. (2010). Assisted migration of plants : Changes in latitudes, changes in attitudes. Biol. Conserv., 143(1), 18‒27. DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.08.015. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar

Weigel, A.P., Knutti, R., Liniger, M.A. & Appenzeller C. (2010). Risks of model weighting in multimodel climate projections. Journal of Climate, 23(15), 4175‒4191. DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3594.1. Open DOISearch in Google Scholar