Climate Agreement. Race to Carbon Neutrality From Rio Via Kyoto and Paris to Glasgow

In 1997, at the third Conference of the Parties to the Convention (COP3) in Kyoto (Japan), the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC entered into force [10].

According to the Kyoto Protocol, over the first commitment period (2008–2012) Annex 1 Parties were to reduce their GHG emissions by 5.2% compared to 1990. Non-Annex 1 Parties did not have quantitative limits for their GHG emissions.

1990 was chosen as the base year because this year GHG emissions exceeded the relatively safe level of 350 ppm (Table 1).

In 1990, 8 countries were the major world emitters of carbon dioxide from the combustion of anthropogenic fuel (Table 2). Six Annex 1 Parties are responsible for 50% of global CO₂ emissions, out of which only Japan (5.1%), Germany (4.6%) and United Kingdom (2.7%) (in the EU) have committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The USA, the major GHG emitter (23.4%), refused from ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. However, the country took voluntary commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the level of certain companies and municipal authorities.

According to the Kyoto Protocol, emissions from countries with economies in transition – Russia (the world’s second-largest air pollutant – 10.5%) and Ukraine (sixth largest – 3.4%) should not exceed the emission level in 1990.

Another 13% of global CO₂ emissions were produced by China (third largest – 10.3%) and India (eighth largest – 2.6%) (Table 2). However, China and India as developing countries did not have commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

By the end of the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol, significant changes had appeared in the consumption of fossil fuels and emissions of carbon dioxide from the combustion of these fuels by various countries (Table 3).

The most significant reduction in emissions against 1990 level took place in the countries with economies in transition – in Ukraine (by ∼60%) and in Russia (by 25.7%). As a result of the protracted economic crisis, primary energy consumption has decreased in Ukraine by 55%, and in the Russia by ∼20%. Emission reduction has been driven by a reduction in the consumption of carbon-intensive fuels (coal and oil) in Ukraine by ∼50% and 80% respectively, and in the Russian Federation – by ∼38% and ∼47%.

Germany has been the most successful in reducing CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels consumption. Its emissions have decreased by ∼21%. The country managed to achieve such a success by reducing the primary energy consumption by ∼11% and partial replacing of coal with natural gas in the country’s fuel mix. The share of CO₂ emissions from coal combustion has decreased by 37%, and from oil combustion - by ∼21%. At the same time, the share of emissions from natural gas combustion has increased by 40%. UK emissions are down 16% while primary energy consumption is down ∼5%. The share of emissions from the combustion of natural gas has increased by ∼47%, while from the combustion of coal and oil has decreased by ∼40% and ∼1% respectively. In Japan, primary energy consumption has increased by 7%, but CO₂ emissions have increased by ∼16%. The share of emissions from natural gas combustion has increased by ∼124%, coal by ∼45%, but the share of emissions from oil combustion has decreased by ∼19%.

In the United States, primary energy consumption has increased by ∼11%, but CO₂ emissions have increased by only ∼2%, because the share of emissions from the combustion of coal and oil has decreased by ∼10% and ∼4% respectively, and the share from the combustion of natural gas has increased by ∼37%.

Developing countries, which according to the Kyoto Protocol did not have any commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, have instead boosted them.

China confidently takes the global lead, having increased its emissions by ∼318% over the last years. Primary energy consumption in China also has increased by ∼308%. The share of emissions from coal and oil combustion has increased by 311% and 286% respectively, but natural gas share increased by ∼1180% (in 1990, the share of emissions from natural gas combustion was only ∼1% from fossil fuels emission). India increased emissions by ∼240%, the consumption of fossil fuels in the country has increased by ∼205%, the share of emissions from natural gas consumptions has increased by ∼400%, coal – by ∼250%, and oil – by ∼195%.

Parties that committed themselves under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were actively implementing mitigation measures: increased the share of low-carbon and renewable fuels, improved energy efficiency, etc. Non-committed parties noticeably increased their emissions (by several times). It can be easily illustrated by the growth of emissions in certain dynamically developing countries (Table 4).

From 1990 to 2012, energy consumption in Iran, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Korea increased by ∼200%. At the same time, CO₂ emissions increased in Iran, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia by ∼200%, and in the Republic of Korea by ∼150%. Primary fuel consumption has grown significantly in Brazil ∼120%, Mexico ∼70% and South Africa ∼40%. Greenhouse gas emissions in these countries have already exceeded those of the United Kingdom.

Major outcome of the Kyoto Protocol:

The first results in terms of reduction in fossil fuel consumption after the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol are presented in Table 5.

Compared to 2012, the largest reduction in emissions in 2018 was achieved by Ukraine (by 34%). However, the 31% reduction in primary fuel consumption is mainly attributable to industrial restructuring due to the ongoing political crisis.

Significant reductions in CO₂ emissions since 2012 were achieved by the United Kingdom – by 24% with a decrease in primary fuel consumption by ∼7%, Japan – by ∼12% with a decrease in primary fuel consumption by 5.4% and Germany (by ∼7% with an increase in primary fuel consumption by 0.5%). The reduction in CO₂ emissions in these countries was largely due to an increased use of natural gas consumption as a replacement for the part of the high-carbon fossil fuels (in the UK and Germany, coal combustion was curbed by ∼80% and 16% respectively, in Japan - oil combustion by ∼27%).

The total amount of US emissions remained almost unchanged with an increase in primary fuel consumption by ∼6.6%, however, the country is now actively reducing its coal consumption (by ∼23%) and increasing the share of natural gas by ∼17.6%.

China, with a growth in fossil fuel consumption by 16%, has increased CO₂ emissions by 8%, but the share of emissions from natural gas combustion has increased by 99%, and from coal combustion by only 2%.

India has increased its consumption of fossil fuels by 33%, while CO₂ emissions have grown by ∼28%.

Fossil fuel consumption in Iran and Saudi Arabia has increased by ∼26% and ∼12% respectively, but emissions from Iran and Saudi Arabia increased by only 13% and ∼6% respectively, due to the replacement of 12% and 4% of oil with natural gas.

In Brazil, fossil fuel consumption has increased by 3.8%, but CO₂ emissions have decreased by 4.2% due to a 10% reduction in emissions from oil combustion and an increase in natural gas emissions by 13.4%. However, emissions from coal combustion also increased by 7.6%. In Mexico, fossil fuel consumption has increased by ∼2%, but emissions from oil combustion decreased by ∼7% and from coal combustion – by ∼5%, while emissions from natural gas combustion have increased by ∼6%.

A brief outlook of the other greenhouse gas emissions behavior is presented below.

Major coal consumers in the world and CO₂ emissions from coal combustion are presented in the Table 9.

As can be seen from the Table 9, China is burning more than a half of the global coal demand. Another 20% are shared by the United States and India. Complete phase out of coal in these countries may result in reduction of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion by ∼30%.

Aggregate coal consumption by Japan, Russian Federation, The Republic of Korea, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Poland equals to ∼15%. Complete phase out of coal in these countries may result in reduction of GHG emissions by another ∼6%. Without any doubt, this would be a significant contribution to the global decarbonization.

However, coal is responsible for meeting 60% of the primary energy consumption in China, and for 55% – in India, for 70% – in South Africa, for 50% – in Poland, for 30% each in the United States, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Indonesia 30%. Commitments undertaken by these countries to reduce their CO₂ emissions are described in section 3.2.

According to the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation, it is assumed that coal supplies to the domestic market may increase by 8% by 2035 compared to 2018 level [25], which contradicts the target set by the IEA. According to the “Draft Strategy for the Long-Term Low-GHG Development of the Russian Federation till 2050”, by 2030 the country plans to increase total greenhouse gas emissions by 32% compared to 2017 level, and by 2050 – by 26%, taking into account emissions related to the land use and forestry [26].