<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>We present the problem of risk estimation/assessment of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in Poland. In the literature, a method is given to explain the COVID-19 disease and try to predict the occurrence of the next wave of COVID-19. A Gaussian composite model is used in literature to identify COVID-19 disease. In this model, however, the prediction of the upcoming waves is dependent primarily on the set of selected samples. For different sets of samples, distinct timings of the upcoming waves are obtained. In this article, we assume that probability is associated with each set of samples, which are used for the prediction of the upcoming waves. By exploring this aspect, it is shown that a better prediction of the upcoming COVID-19 waves can be performed.</p>
</abstract>

We present the problem of risk estimation/assessment of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in Poland. In the literature, a method is given to explain the COVID-19 disease and try to predict the occurrence of the next wave of COVID-19. A Gaussian composite model is used in literature to identify COVID-19 disease. In this model, however, the prediction of the upcoming waves is dependent primarily on the set of selected samples. For different sets of samples, distinct timings of the upcoming waves are obtained. In this article, we assume that probability is associated with each set of samples, which are used for the prediction of the upcoming waves. By exploring this aspect, it is shown that a better prediction of the upcoming COVID-19 waves can be performed.

Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland

WSB Journal of Business and Finance

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

{"article-title":"Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland"}

We present the problem of risk estimation/assessment of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) spread in Poland. In the literature, a method is given to explain the...

Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland

Published Online: Dec 01, 2022

Page range: 17 - 24

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2022-0003

Keywords
COVID-19, risk assessment, mixture Gaussian, statistical modelling, COVID-19 in Poland

© 2022 M.K. Arti et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Probability Calculation of Upcoming Waves of COVID-19 in Poland

Published Online: Dec 01, 2022

Page range: 17 - 24

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/wsbjbf-2022-0003

KeywordsCOVID-19, risk assessment, mixture Gaussian, statistical modelling, COVID-19 in Poland

© 2022 M.K. Arti et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
COVID-19, risk assessment, mixture Gaussian, statistical modelling, COVID-19 in Poland