<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p>The general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this paper, is a joint considering and modelling of each technological processes, including fuel supply to heat sources (HS), generation of heat energy by these HS and its distribution on district heating network (HN). For solving this problem different methods and models are applied: statistical testing method, Markov random processes, methods of the theory of hydraulic circuits, basic laws of district heating and heat transfer processes, etc. In this paper the main attention is paid to the results of the practical application of methods and models of a comprehensive reliability analysis of DHS using the example of calculations performed for the actual DHS scheme of the Shelekhov city (Irkutsk region, Russia). Different stages of the case study are considered, including preparation of initial data, simulation modelling of fuel supply to HS, modelling of the Markov random process describing operate of DHS, calculation of post-failure modes in HN, evaluation of nodal reliability indices (RI), decomposition analysis of reliability. Based on the analysis of calculation results some preliminary directions are formulated to the increase of reliability for studied DHS. These data are the basis for a comprehensive reliability synthesis (optimization) of DHS, the solution of which is the subject of special perspective stage in development of the research.</p></abstract>

The general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this paper, is a joint considering and modelling of each technological processes, including fuel supply to heat sources (HS), generation of heat energy by these HS and its distribution on district heating network (HN). For solving this problem different methods and models are applied: statistical testing method, Markov random processes, methods of the theory of hydraulic circuits, basic laws of district heating and heat transfer processes, etc. In this paper the main attention is paid to the results of the practical application of methods and models of a comprehensive reliability analysis of DHS using the example of calculations performed for the actual DHS scheme of the Shelekhov city (Irkutsk region, Russia). Different stages of the case study are considered, including preparation of initial data, simulation modelling of fuel supply to HS, modelling of the Markov random process describing operate of DHS, calculation of post-failure modes in HN, evaluation of nodal reliability indices (RI), decomposition analysis of reliability. Based on the analysis of calculation results some preliminary directions are formulated to the increase of reliability for studied DHS. These data are the basis for a comprehensive reliability synthesis (optimization) of DHS, the solution of which is the subject of special perspective stage in development of the research.

Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Environmental and Climate Technologies

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

The general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this...

Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Published Online: Dec 14, 2020

Page range: 145 - 162

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2020-0093

Keywords
Comprehensive reliability analysis, decomposition of reliability, district heating system, graph of states, Markov random process, nodal reliability indices, statistical testing method, system of fuel supply, theory of hydraulic circuits

© 2020 Ivan Postnikov, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Published Online: Dec 14, 2020

Page range: 145 - 162

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/rtuect-2020-0093

KeywordsComprehensive reliability analysis, decomposition of reliability, district heating system, graph of states, Markov random process, nodal reliability indices, statistical testing method, system of fuel supply, theory of hydraulic circuits

© 2020 Ivan Postnikov, published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Keywords
Comprehensive reliability analysis, decomposition of reliability, district heating system, graph of states, Markov random process, nodal reliability indices, statistical testing method, system of fuel supply, theory of hydraulic circuits