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Precipitation Amounts Triggering Landslide Processes in the Western Part of the Nałęczów Plateau (Lublin Upland, Poland)

Piotr Demczuk
Piotr Demczuk
, 
Tymoteusz Zydroń
Tymoteusz Zydroń
 and 
Tomasz Szafran
Tomasz Szafran
   | Jun 25, 2022
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Published Online: Jun 25, 2022
Page range: 33 - 51
Received: Jan 31, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2022-0024
Keywords
© 2022 Piotr Demczuk et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Location of research sites shown against a LiDAR elevation-based shaded relief map of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.
Location of research sites shown against a LiDAR elevation-based shaded relief map of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.

Fig. 2

Geological structure of the research area.A – Geological map of the sub-loess surface of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau, with the study area marked by a red box (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976), B – Hypsometric tints of the sub-loess surface of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau, with the study area marked (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976), C – Map of loess cover thickness in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau with marked study area (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976).
Geological structure of the research area.A – Geological map of the sub-loess surface of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau, with the study area marked by a red box (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976), B – Hypsometric tints of the sub-loess surface of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau, with the study area marked (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976), C – Map of loess cover thickness in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau with marked study area (Harasimiuk, Henkiel 1975/1976).

Fig. 3

Total annual precipitation for the years 1951–2020 at the IMGW station in Puławy plotted against the Kaczorowska classification (1962).
Total annual precipitation for the years 1951–2020 at the IMGW station in Puławy plotted against the Kaczorowska classification (1962).

Fig. 4

Distribution of maximum, average and minimum monthly precipitation totals in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.
Distribution of maximum, average and minimum monthly precipitation totals in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.

Fig. 5

Distribution of the average number of days with precipitation at various levels in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.
Distribution of the average number of days with precipitation at various levels in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.

Fig. 6

Distribution of precipitation sequence lengths and totals in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.
Distribution of precipitation sequence lengths and totals in the 1951–2020 period at the IMGW station in Puławy.

Fig. 7

Photos of the slopes covered by the research.
Photos of the slopes covered by the research.

Fig. 8

Procedure for calculating the precipitation thresholds triggering landslides in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.
Procedure for calculating the precipitation thresholds triggering landslides in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.

Fig. 9

Shape of reconstructed landslide slopes subjected to slope stability tests.1 – assumed original slope shape, 2 – sliding surface, 3 – present slope shape, 4 – loess layer, 5 – layer with low water permeability.
Shape of reconstructed landslide slopes subjected to slope stability tests.1 – assumed original slope shape, 2 – sliding surface, 3 – present slope shape, 4 – loess layer, 5 – layer with low water permeability.

Fig. 10

Distribution of occurrence probability of maximum daily precipitation during the vegetation period, based on data from the IMGW station in Puławy from 1951 to 2020.
Distribution of occurrence probability of maximum daily precipitation during the vegetation period, based on data from the IMGW station in Puławy from 1951 to 2020.

Fig. 11

Conceptual distribution of the FS against the background of annual hydrological balance components.Eva – evaporation; FS – factor of safety; Inf (−)/SF(+) – infiltration (negative values)/subsurface flow (positive values); Max FS – maximum value of the FS; Mean FS – mean value of the FS; Min FS – minimum value of the FS; R – rainfall; RunO – runoff; SWE – snow water equivalent; Trans – transpiration.
Conceptual distribution of the FS against the background of annual hydrological balance components.Eva – evaporation; FS – factor of safety; Inf (−)/SF(+) – infiltration (negative values)/subsurface flow (positive values); Max FS – maximum value of the FS; Mean FS – mean value of the FS; Min FS – minimum value of the FS; R – rainfall; RunO – runoff; SWE – snow water equivalent; Trans – transpiration.

Fig. 12

Distribution of the mean value of the safety coefficient in a given month for a multipleyear period based on the selected slopes in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau [chart generated using Matplotlib (Hunter 2007) and Seaborn (Waskom 2021) libraries in Python].
Distribution of the mean value of the safety coefficient in a given month for a multipleyear period based on the selected slopes in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau [chart generated using Matplotlib (Hunter 2007) and Seaborn (Waskom 2021) libraries in Python].

Fig. 13

Threshold precipitation values based on calculations of slope stability of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.Intensity–duration thresholds: A-A’ – dry slope on the first analysis day; B-B’ – humid slope on the first analysis day; C-C’ – wet slope on the first analysis day.
Threshold precipitation values based on calculations of slope stability of the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau.Intensity–duration thresholds: A-A’ – dry slope on the first analysis day; B-B’ – humid slope on the first analysis day; C-C’ – wet slope on the first analysis day.

Fig. 14

Overview of the precipitation thresholds initiating landslides worldwide.
Overview of the precipitation thresholds initiating landslides worldwide.

Critical precipitation level values triggering landslides in the western part of the Nałęczów Plateau in relation to initial slope cover moisture values.

Nature of precipitation Precipitation duration Precipitation sum Precipitation intensity
Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
[days] [mm] [mm/h]
Dry slope on the first analysis day
Uniformly 23 33.0 54 57.0 98.4 138.8 0.062 0.130 0.170
Decreasing 12 20.3 43 60.7 132.9 202.7 0.075 0.311 0.519
Increasing 28 40.0 57 53.4 82.9 110.9 0.056 0.089 0.116
Humid slope on the first analysis day
Uniformly 19 27.1 44 48.0 80.7 110.2 0.062 0.130 0.170
Decreasing 8 15.1 33 54.5 114.8 167.0 0.085 0.368 0.686
Increasing 23 33.5 48 46.4 68.1 90.9 0.055 0.087 0.115
Wet slope on the first analysis day
Uniformly 15 25.8 44 37.5 76.6 106.1 0.062 0.130 0.170
Decreasing 7 14.3 33 44.2 112.1 167.0 0.085 0.389 0.766
Increasing 18 31.7 47 35.2 64.1 88.0 0.054 0.086 0.115

Parameters of research slopes.

Case study Location [WGS84] Slope Length Height Thickness of colluvium Landuse
E[°] N [°] [°] [m] [%]
K01 21.95956 51.32689 30.0 120 21.0 7.7 Forest (100)
K02 21.97400 51.32232 46.5 116 16.8 3.1 Forest (62), Fields (48)
K03 21.97799 51.32479 35.0 143 14.4 4.7 Forest (100)
Z01 22.00966 51.36299 36.5 255 36.6 7.9 Forest (50), Fields (50)
Z01a 22.00535 51.35397 45.0 190 16.8 5.6 Forest (74), Fields (26)
Z03 22.01034 51.34569 45.0 107 28.7 7.2 Forest (73), Fields (23)

Main geotechnical parameters of loess cover at each site.

Case study Angle of internal friction Cohesion Permeability Fraction content USDA PN-EN ISO 14668-2:2006
Clay Silt Sand
[°] [kPa] [m/s] [%]
K01 33.9 3.2 3.27 × 10−6 6.4 67.0 26.6 silt loam silt
K02 31.4 0.0 7.14 × 10−6 5.4 66.2 28.4 silt loam silt
K03 30.4 0.0 3.86 × 10−6 4.8 61.4 33.8 silt loam silt
Z01 31.2 0.0 2.20 × 10−6 5.1 65.0 29.9 silt loam silt
Z01a 34.3 0.0 2.36 × 10−6 4.9 64.9 30.2 silt loam silt
Z03 30.5 3.0 2.95 × 10−6 6.1 62.8 31.1 silt loam silt
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