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A Year of Spatio-Temporal Clusters of COVID-19 in Indonesia

Jumadi Jumadi
Jumadi Jumadi
, 
Vidya N. Fikriyah
Vidya N. Fikriyah
, 
Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir
Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir
, 
Kuswaji Dwi Priyono
Kuswaji Dwi Priyono
, 
Muhammad Musiyam
Muhammad Musiyam
, 
Andri N. R. Mardiah
Andri N. R. Mardiah
, 
Arif Rohman
Arif Rohman
, 
Hamzah Hasyim
Hamzah Hasyim
 and 
Mohd. Hairy Ibrahim
Mohd. Hairy Ibrahim
   | Jun 24, 2022
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Published Online: Jun 24, 2022
Page range: 139 - 151
Received: Jul 12, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2022-0013
Keywords
© 2022 Jumadi Jumadi et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1

Area of study.Source: own elaboration.
Area of study.Source: own elaboration.

Fig. 2

The general framework of the study.Source: own elaboration.
The general framework of the study.Source: own elaboration.

Fig. 3

COVID-19 cases between March 2020 and March 2021.Source: own elaboration.
COVID-19 cases between March 2020 and March 2021.Source: own elaboration.

Fig. 4

Death cases from COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.Source: own elaboration.
Death cases from COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.Source: own elaboration.

Fig. 5

CFR of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.CFR – case fatality rate.Source: own elaboration.
CFR of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.CFR – case fatality rate.Source: own elaboration.

Fig. 6

VLN of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.VLN – vulnerability.Source: own elaboration
VLN of COVID-19 between March 2020 and March 2021.VLN – vulnerability.Source: own elaboration

Fig. 7

The cluster of COVID-19 based on VLN, cumulative cases, death cases, and CFR in every province.VLN – vulnerability; CFR – case fatality rate.Source: own elaboration.
The cluster of COVID-19 based on VLN, cumulative cases, death cases, and CFR in every province.VLN – vulnerability; CFR – case fatality rate.Source: own elaboration.

Descriptive statistics for each cluster.

Cluster VLN CCS per 1 million of population Death per 1 million populations CFR
Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max
1 0.00 0.33 1.00 857.67 3,851.43 7,958.33 6.10 99.48 224.91 0.71 2.74 7.05
2 0.12 0.15 0.18 14,008.57 14,408.53 14,808.49 211.43 279.32 347.21 1.51 1.93 2.34
3 0.37 0.37 0.37 32,366.76 32,366.76 32,366.76 524.62 524.62 524.62 1.62 1.62 1.62

Attributes of clusters and summary.

Characteristics Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3
VLN Moderate Low High
CCS per 1 million of population Low Moderate High
Death per 1 million of population Low Moderate High
CFR High Moderate Low
Members of clusters Thirty-one other provinces (Table 2) Two provinces: East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan One province: DKI Jakarta

Indonesian holidays and the increasing number of positive cases.

Type of holidays Baseline* A week after 2 weeks after
Eid day (May 18–24, 2020) 4,757 Increase 49% Increase 60% (in accumulative)
The birth of Prophet Muhammad (October 28–30, 2020) 23,072 Increase 32% Increase 59% (in accumulative)
Natal and New Year’s Eve (December 25–31, 2020) 50,360 Increase 63% Increase 71% (in accumulative)

Final cluster centre.

Final Cluster Centre
Variables Cluster
1 2 3
VLN 0.33 0.15 0.37
CCS per 1 million of population 3,851.43 14,408.53 32,366.76
Death per 1 million of population 99.48 279.32 524.62
CFR 2.74 1.93 1.62

Cluster membership of COVID-19 in every province.

No Province VLN CCS per 1 mi pop Death per 1 mi pop CFR Cluster
1 Aceh 0.24 1,810.82 72.87 4.02 1
2 Bali 0.70 7,958.33 214.58 2.70 1
3 Banten 0.28 2,478.74 51.60 2.08 1
4 Kepulauan Bangka Belitung 0.30 5,050.68 76.71 1.52 1
5 Bengkulu 0.26 2,455.72 73.13 2.98 1
6 Di Yogyakarta 1.00 7,620.44 185.83 2.44 1
7 Jambi 0.27 1,546.20 23.38 1.51 1
8 West Kalimantan 0.24 857.67 6.10 0.71 1
10 Central Kalimantan 0.19 5,215.36 135.58 2.60 1
11 South Kalimantan 0.30 5,415.97 179.85 3.32 1
13 Kepulauan Riau 0.17 4,230.58 106.80 2.52 1
14 West Nusa Tenggara 0.27 1,652.26 64.29 3.89 1
15 South Sumatera 0.35 1,885.48 91.62 4.86 1
16 West Sumatera 0.44 5,281.01 117.00 2.22 1
17 North Sulawesi 0.61 5,733.21 188.93 3.30 1
18 North Sumatera 0.30 1,666.62 56.62 3.40 1
19 South East Sulawesi 0.15 3,837.40 74.05 1.93 1
20 South Sulawesi 0.39 6,211.58 92.94 1.50 1
21 Central Sulawesi 0.24 3,377.59 86.62 2.56 1
22 Lampung 0.40 1,399.33 72.14 5.16 1
23 Riau 0.14 4,922.22 119.72 2.43 1
24 North Maluku 0.11 3,114.84 88.28 2.83 1
25 Maluku 0.19 3,775.14 56.76 1.50 1
26 West Papua 0.00 6,584.96 111.50 1.69 1
27 Papua 0.04 3,973.02 41.16 1.04 1
28 West Sulawesi 0.20 3,685.92 73.24 1.99 1
29 East Nusa Tenggara 0.25 1,742.40 49.16 2.82 1
30 Gorontalo 0.23 4,100.85 116.24 2.83 1
32 West Java 0.44 4,410.07 48.97 1.11 1
33 Central Java 0.67 4,208.24 183.16 4.35 1
34 East Java 0.79 3,191.54 224.91 7.05 1
9 East Kalimantan 0.18 14,808.49 347.21 2.34 2
12 North Kalimantan 0.12 14,008.57 211.43 1.51 2
31 Dki Jakarta 0.37 32,366.76 524.62 1.62 3
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