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Potential Influence of Urban Sprawl and Changing Land Surface Temperature on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in Lagos State, Nigeria

Jerry N. Obiefuna
Jerry N. Obiefuna
, 
Chukwuma J. Okolie
Chukwuma J. Okolie
, 
Peter C. Nwilo
Peter C. Nwilo
, 
Olagoke E. Daramola
Olagoke E. Daramola
 and 
Lawrence C. Isiofia
Lawrence C. Isiofia
   | Jan 29, 2021
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Published Online: Jan 29, 2021
Page range: 5 - 23
Received: Sep 03, 2020
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/quageo-2021-0001
Keywords
© 2021 Jerry N. Obiefuna et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Public License.

Fig. 1

Map of the study area.
Map of the study area.

Fig. 2

Spatial variation in land cover.
Spatial variation in land cover.

Fig. 3

Changes in land cover during 1984–2019.
Changes in land cover during 1984–2019.

Fig. 4

Areal changes in the coverage of land cover within the six focus LGAs during 1984–2019.
Areal changes in the coverage of land cover within the six focus LGAs during 1984–2019.

Fig. 5

Spatial variation in LST.
Spatial variation in LST.

Fig. 6

Distribution of mean LST.
Distribution of mean LST.

Fig. 7

Changes in mean LST.
Changes in mean LST.

Fig. 8

Mean LSTs associated with the different land cover classes.
Mean LSTs associated with the different land cover classes.

Fig. 9

Some parts of Alimosho LGA. a – Ikotun Bus stop/garage; b – Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) terminal along Ikotun-Idimu road in Alimosho LGA (year 2020).
Some parts of Alimosho LGA. a – Ikotun Bus stop/garage; b – Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) terminal along Ikotun-Idimu road in Alimosho LGA (year 2020).

Fig. 10

Some parts of Ikorodu LGA. a – Sprawl in Ikorodu driven partly by the construction of dual-carriage main access; b – Ikorodu Bus stop/garage (year 2020).
Some parts of Ikorodu LGA. a – Sprawl in Ikorodu driven partly by the construction of dual-carriage main access; b – Ikorodu Bus stop/garage (year 2020).

Fig. 11

Heat stress map for Lagos State on 30 January 2019 with mean LST. a – UTCI *1 from utci.org; b – UTCI **2 from climatechip.org.
Heat stress map for Lagos State on 30 January 2019 with mean LST. a – UTCI *1 from utci.org; b – UTCI **2 from climatechip.org.

Minimum and maximum LSTs [°C] associated with the different land cover classes.

Year Land Cover *N Min LST Max LST
1984 Bare Land 43 25.56 31.32
Built-up Area 620 23.75 32.86
Mixed Forest 107 23.75 30.86
Wetland Forest 42 25.28 29.56
Total 816 23.75 32.86
2001 Bare Land 43 25.60 33.38
Built-up Area 620 25.57 34.26
Mixed Forest 107 24.91 31.87
Wetland Forest 42 25.00 31.14
Total 816 24.91 34.26
2019 Bare Land 30 27.88 32.34
Built-up Area 411 26.24 33.83
Mixed Forest 94 25.74 33.17
Wetland Forest 42 22.73 33.12
Total 577 22.73 33.83

UTCI heat stress index with LST for Lagos State on January 30, 2019.

S/N LGA Mean LST [°C] 2019 UTCI *1 [°C] Heat Stress Level *1 UTCI **2 [°C] Heat Stress Level **2
1 Agege 32.84 33.83 S 35.58 S
2 Ajeromi-Ifelodun 31.44 31.70 M 33.62 S
3 Alimosho 31.98 32.50 S 34.36 S
4 Amuwo-Odofin 29.42 28.80 M 30.98 M
5 Apapa 29.61 29.10 M 31.22 M
6 Badagry 29.01 28.30 M 31.46 M
7 Epe 29.94 29.60 M 30.61 M
8 Eti-Osa 31.47 31.80 M 33.66 S
9 Ibeju-Lekki 30.30 30.10 M 32.11 S
10 Ifako-Ijaiye 32.78 33.70 S 35.49 S
11 Ikeja 32.32 33.00 S 34.84 S
12 Ikorodu 30.83 30.10 M 32.10 S
13 Kosofe 31.55 31.90 M 33.77 S
14 Lagos Island 30.58 30.50 M 32.48 S
15 Lagos Mainland 30.59 30.50 M 32.49 S
16 Mushin 31.36 31.60 M 33.51 S
17 Ojo 30.06 29.70 M 31.80 M
18 Oshodi-Isolo 31.91 32.40 S 34.26 S
19 Somolu 31.69 32.10 S 33.96 S
20 Surulere 31.31 31.20 M 33.10 S
Maximum temp for that day 34.00 35.70 S 37.30 S

Areal distribution in the coverage of land cover between 1984 and 2019.

S/N Land Cover Area in 1984 Area in 2001 Area in 2019
[km2] [%] [km2] [%] [km2] [%]
1 Bare Land 136.60 3.76 189.81 5.23 142.27 3.86
2 Built-up Area 134.58 3.70 464.21 12.78 1041.88 28.24
3 Mixed Forest 1708.10 47.02 1466.45 40.37 1043.05 29.13
4 Water Body 761.88 20.97 748.77 20.61 714.32 19.36
5 Wetland Forest – including mangrove and swamps 794.87 21.88 763.29 21.01 678.90 18.40
6 Cloud Cover 96.49 2.66 – – 17.07 0.46
Total 3632.52 100.00 3632.52 100.00 3637.49 100.00

Contribution index (CI) for 1984, 2001 and 2019.

Land cover 1984 2001 2019
Dt [°C] S CI Dt [°C] S CI Dt [°C] S CI
Bare land −0.17 0.04 −0.01 −0.17 0.05 −0.01 0.23 0.04 0.01
Built-up area 0.37 0.04 0.01 0.45 0.13 0.06 0.41 0.28 0.12
Mixed forest −1.51 0.47 −0.71 −1.73 0.40 −0.70 −1.27 0.29 −0.37
Wetland forest −1.32 0.22 −0.29 −1.79 0.21 −0.38 −1.36 0.18 −0.25

Areal changes in land cover within the six focus LGAs between 1984 and 2019.

LGA 1984 2001 2019 1984 2001 2019 1984 2001 2019 1984 2001 2019
Bare land Built-up area Mixed forest Wetland forest
Area [km2]
Alimosho 16.84 28.48 0.32 4.10 91.26 150.88 118.83 44.87 10.53 43.82 18.95 21.63
Badagry 26.11 40.37 17.98 0.83 16.43 111.63 188.05 207.05 130.91 110.65 123.78 130.28
Eti-Osa 6.85 24.52 15.35 9.06 35.63 113.89 86.20 79.24 35.00 58.37 24.78 12.66
Ifako-Ijaiye 6.78 4.44 0.00 3.21 18.12 25.21 15.35 3.57 1.00 1.05 0.26 0.31
Ikorodu 3.91 13.61 1.45 2.27 42.06 181.42 280.92 238.15 91.85 77.06 69.34 88.94
Ojo 16.24 16.92 5.75 1.21 36.34 62.00 54.17 42.18 22.93 41.98 47.75 54.37
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