1. bookVolume 67 (2021): Issue 4 (December 2021)
Journal Details
First Published
22 Feb 2015
Publication timeframe
4 times per year
Open Access

Exploring Emerging Markets’ Demographic and Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Middle Class Growth: The Case of China and India

Published Online: 30 Dec 2021
Volume & Issue: Volume 67 (2021) - Issue 4 (December 2021)
Page range: 33 - 55
Received: 01 Oct 2021
Accepted: 01 Nov 2021
Journal Details
First Published
22 Feb 2015
Publication timeframe
4 times per year

Adelman, I., & Morris, C. T. (1967). Society, politics & economic development: a quantitative approach. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press.Search in Google Scholar

Asian Development Bank (2020). Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Overview and Economic Impact. ADB Briefs No. 164.Search in Google Scholar

Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/664096/adb-brief-164-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Baccini, L. (2018). The Economics and Politics of Preferential Trade Agreements. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 1-29. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-07070810.1146/annurev-polisci-050317-070708Search in Google Scholar

Banerjee, A. V., & Duflo, E. (2008). What is Middle Class about the Middle Classes around the World? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(2), 3-28. DOI: 10.1257/jep.22.2.310.1257/jep.22.2.3Search in Google Scholar

Barton, D., Chen, Y., & Jin, A. (2013). Mapping China’s middle class. McKinsey Quarterly, June, 2013. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/mapping-chinas-middle-classSearch in Google Scholar

Basole, A., Shrivastava, A., Jayadec, A., & Abraham, R. (2018). State of Working India 2018. Bengaluru: Azim Premji University. Retrieved from https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/state-of-working-india/swi-2021/.Search in Google Scholar

Beckley, M., & Brands, H. (2021). The end of China’s rise. Beijing is running out of time to remake the world. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-10-01/end-chinas-riseSearch in Google Scholar

Bhalla, S. S. (2007). Second among Equals: The Middle Class Kingdoms of India and China. Washington DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228386466_Second_among_Equals_The_Middle_Class_Kingdoms_of_India_and_ChinaSearch in Google Scholar

Bloom, D.E., Canning, D., Hu, L., Liu, Y., Mahal, A., & Yip, W. (2010). The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India. Journal of Comparative Economics, 38(1), 17-33.10.1016/j.jce.2009.11.002Search in Google Scholar

Boussie, A., & Kersley, R. (2018). The »Supertrend«: Still on track. Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 (pp.13-22). Zürich: CreditSuisse AG. Retrieved from D:/ecs-2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Brandi, C., & Büge, M. (2014). A Cartography of the New Middle Classes in Developing and Emerging Countries (Discussion Paper 35/2014). Bonn: German Development Institute. Retrieved from https://www.die-gdi.de/en/discussion-paper/article/a-cartography-of-the-new-middle-classes-in-developing-and-emerging-countries/Search in Google Scholar

Bray, C. (2018). US trade war forces businesses to rethink Chinese investments amid fears dispute will drag on into new year (South China Morning Post). Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2180014/us-trade-war-forces-businesses-rethink-chinese-investments.Search in Google Scholar

Brueckner, M., Dabla-Norris, E., Gradstein, M., & Lederman, D. (2018). The rise of the middle class and economic growth in ASEAN. Journal of Asian Economics, 56, 48-58. DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.00810.1016/j.asieco.2017.12.008Search in Google Scholar

Carillo Hermosilla, J., & Martinez Chafla, P. (2003). Technology transfer and sustainable development in emerging economies: The problem of technology lock-in. Madrid: Instituto de Empresa Centre for Environmental & Energy Studies. Retrieved from https://latienda.ie.edu/working_papers_economia/WP03-01.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Casson, M., & Wadeson, N. (2018). Emerging market multinationals and internalization theory. International Business Review, 27(6), 1150-1160. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.04.00610.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.04.006Search in Google Scholar

Cavusgil, S. T., Deligonul, S., Kardes, I., & Cavusgil, E. (2018). Middle-Class Consumers in Emerging Markets: Conceptualization, Propositions, and Implications for International Marketers. Journal of International Marketing, 26(3), 94-108. http://doi.org/10.1509/jim.16.002110.1509/jim.16.0021Search in Google Scholar

Center for Strategic and International Studies (2021). How well-off is China’s middle class? Retrieved from https://chinapower.csis.org/china-middle-class/Search in Google Scholar

Centre for sustainable employment (2018). State of Working India 2018. Bengaluru: Azim Premji University. Retrieved from https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/state-of-working-india/swi-2021/.Search in Google Scholar

Chenaf Nicet, D., & Rougier, E. (2016). The effect of macroeconomic instability on FDI flows: A gravity estimation of the impact of regional integration in the case of Euro-Mediterranean agreements. International Economics, 45, 66-91. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.257579310.2139/ssrn.2575793Search in Google Scholar

Choundry, M.T., & Elhorst, P. (2010). Demographic Transition and Economic growth in China, India and Pakistan. Economic Systems, 34(3), 218-236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2010.02.00110.1016/j.ecosys.2010.02.001Search in Google Scholar

Colmenares, A., Yan, X., & Wang, W. (2021). Determinants in the forecast of the gross national income of China and India from 1952 to 2015. Journal of Management Science and Engineering, 6(3), 268-294.10.1016/j.jmse.2021.06.001Search in Google Scholar

Cruz, M., & Ahmed, S. A. (2018). On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty. World Development, 105, 95-106. DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.01810.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018Search in Google Scholar

Curtis, C.C., Lugauer, S., & Mark, C.N. (2017). Demographics and aggregate household savings in Japan, China, and India. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 175-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.01.00210.1016/j.jmacro.2017.01.002Search in Google Scholar

Daugherty, G. (2021). America’s Middle Class is Losing Ground Financially. Investopedia. Understanding Income Inequality. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/insights/americas-slowly-disappearing-middle-class/Search in Google Scholar

DaVanzo, J., Dogo, H., & Grammich, C. A. (2011). Demographic Trends, Policy Influences, and Economic Effects in China and India through 2025. RAND Working Paper Series, 1-75. https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR849.htmlSearch in Google Scholar

Davies, K. (2013). China Investment Policy: An Update. Paris: OECD. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/china/WP-2013_1.pdf. https://doi.org/10.1787/5k469l1hmvbt-en10.1787/5k469l1hmvbt-enSearch in Google Scholar

Drabble, S., Ratzmann, N., Hoorens, S., Khodyakov, D., & Yakub, O. (2015). The rise of a global middle class. Global societal trends to 2030: Thematic report 6. Cambridge: RAND Europe. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR920z6.htmlSearch in Google Scholar

Easterly, W. (2001). The middle class consensus and economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 6(4), 317-335. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:101278633009510.1023/A:1012786330095Search in Google Scholar

Estrin, S., Nielsen, B. B., & Nielsen S. (2017). Emerging Market Multinational Companies and Internationalization: The Role of Home Country Urbanization. Journal of International Management, 23(3), 326-339. DOI: 10.1016/j.intman.2016.11.00610.1016/j.intman.2016.11.006Search in Google Scholar

European Parliament (2021). Short overview of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Retrieved from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2021/653625/EXPO_BRI(2021)653625_EN.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Fengler, W., & Kharas, H. (2017). A golden age for business? Every second five people are entering the global middle class. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/07/27/a-golden-age-for-business-every-second-five-people-are-entering-the-global-middle-class/.Search in Google Scholar

Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2020). China in the middle-income trap? China Economic Review, 60(C). doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.00310.1016/j.chieco.2019.01.003Search in Google Scholar

Golley, J., & Tyers, R. (2013). Contrasting Giants: Demographic Change and Economic Performance in China and India. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 77, 353-383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.03.09310.1016/j.sbspro.2013.03.093Search in Google Scholar

Gradin, C., & Wu, B. (2020). Income and consumption inequality in China: A comparative approach with India. China Economic Review, 62, 101463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2020.10146310.1016/j.chieco.2020.101463Search in Google Scholar

Gross, D. M., & Ryan, M. (2008). FDI location and size: Does employment protection legislation matter? Regional Science and Urban Economics, 38(6), 590-605.10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2008.05.012Search in Google Scholar

Guercini, S., & Runfola, A. (2016). How western marketers respond to the new middle class in emerging market cities: The case of Italian fashion marketers. International Business Review, 25(3), 691-702. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.10.00310.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.10.003Search in Google Scholar

Javalgi, R., & Grossman, D. A. (2016). Aspirations and entrepreneurial motivations of middle-class consumers in emerging markets: The case of India. International Business Review, 25(3), 657-667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.10.00810.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.10.008Search in Google Scholar

Kardes, I. (2016). Reaching middle class consumers in emerging markets: Unlocking market potential through urban-based analysis. International Business Review, 25(3), 703-710. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2016.03.00510.1016/j.ibusrev.2016.03.005Search in Google Scholar

Kersley, R., & Bhatti, M. (2018). The Emerging Consumer in 2018. In Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 (pp. 5-12). Zürich: CreditSuisse AG. Retrieved from D:/ecs-2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Ketteni, E., & Kottaridi, C. (2019). The impact of regulations on the FDI-growth nexus within the institution-based view: A nonlinear specification with varying coefficient. International Business Review, 28(3), 415-427. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.11.00110.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.11.001Search in Google Scholar

Kharas, H. (2010). The emerging middle class in developing countries. Paris: OECD Development Centre. Working Paper No. 285. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/development/pgd/44457738.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Kharas, H. (2017). The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class. Washington: Brookings Institution. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Klerk, E., & Irwin, S. (2018). An active lifestyle or virtual reality. In Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 (pp. 23-37.). Zürich: Credit Suisse AG. Retrieved from D:/ecs-2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

KPMG International. (2018). China Outlook 2018. Retrieved from https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2018/03/china-outlook-2018.htmlSearch in Google Scholar

Landes, D. S. (1998). The wealth and poverty of nations: why some are so rich and some so poor. London: Little, Brown, and Co.Search in Google Scholar

Lee, A. (2021). China debt: Has it changed in 2021 and how big is now? South China Morning Post, June 2021. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3135883/china-debt-has-it-changed-2021-and-how-big-it-nowSearch in Google Scholar

Lee, Y. N. (2021a). These charts show the dramatic increase in China’s debt. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/china-economy-charts-show-how-much-debt-has-grown.html.Search in Google Scholar

Liu, S., & Hu, A. (2013). Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 35, 71-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.04110.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.041Search in Google Scholar

Mester, L. J. (2017). Demographics and Their Implications for the Economy and Policy. Washington: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Retrieved from D:/sp%2020171116.pdfSearch in Google Scholar

Ministry of Commerce, People’s Republic of China (2021). China FTA Network. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Retrieved from http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/topic/enperu_recp.shtmlSearch in Google Scholar

Mishra, P. (2018). Will the world’s largest democracy create a new kind of consumer? Retrieved from: https://www.ey.com/en_gl/growth/is-the-chinese-consumer-the-future-consumer.Search in Google Scholar

Mitra, A., & Kadam, R. (2018). India – Top of the rankings. In Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 (pp. 60-61). Zürich: CreditSuisse AG. Retrieved from D:/ecs-2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Mitra, A., Chen, C., & Klerk, E. (2018). Consumer Titans. In Emerging Consumer Survey 2018 (pp. 49-55). Zürich: CreditSuisse AG. Retrieved from D:/ecs-2018.pdf.Search in Google Scholar

Naglič, A. (2011). Primerjalna analiza tržnih potencialov dinamičnih trgov držav BRIIVC (A comparison analysis of market potentials of dynamic markets BRIIVC). Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, 57(3-4), 33-43.Search in Google Scholar

Nuruzzaman, N., Singh, D., & Pattnaik, C. (2019). Competing to be innovative: Foreign competition and imitative innovation of emerging economy firms. International Business Review, 28(5), 1-10. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.03.00510.1016/j.ibusrev.2018.03.005Search in Google Scholar

Ozturk, A. (2016). Examining the economic growth and the middle-income trap from the perspective of the middle class. International Business Review, 25(3), 726-738. DOI: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.03.00810.1016/j.ibusrev.2015.03.008Search in Google Scholar

Peterson, E.W.F. (2017). The Role of Population in Economic Growth. SAGE Open October-December 2017, 1– 15. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ageconfacpub/171/. https://doi.org/10.1177/215824401773609410.1177/2158244017736094Search in Google Scholar

Pew Research Center (2009). The global middle class. Views on democracy, religion, values, and life satisfaction in emerging nations. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center. Retrieved from https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2009/02/12/the-global-middle-class/.Search in Google Scholar

Pew Research Center. (2016). America’s Shrinking Middle Class: A Close Look at Changes Within Metropolitan Areas. Retrieved from http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/05/11/americas-shrinking-middle-class-a-close-look-at-changes-within-metropolitan-areas/.Search in Google Scholar

PopulationPyramid.net (2019). Population pyramids of the world. Retrieved from https://www.populationpyramid.net/Search in Google Scholar

Ravallion, M. (2010). The Developing World’s Bulging (but Vulnerable) “Middle Class”. World Development, 38(4), 445-454.10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.11.007Search in Google Scholar

Research Unit for Political Economy. (2015). India’s middle class is almost impossible to define. Retrieved from https://qz.com/india/578793/indias-middle-class-is-almost-impossible-to-define/.Search in Google Scholar

Roy, A. (2018). The Middle Class in India: From 1947 to the Present and Beyond. Education about Asia, 23(1), 32-37.Search in Google Scholar

Schettino, F., & Khan, H. A. (2020). Income polarization in the USA: What happened to the middle class in the last few decades? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 53, 149-161. DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2019.12.00310.1016/j.strueco.2019.12.003Search in Google Scholar

Schettino, F., Gabrielle, A., & Khan, H. A. (2021). Polarization and the middle class in China: A non-parametric evaluation using CHNS and CHIP data. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57, 251-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2021.04.00210.1016/j.strueco.2021.04.002Search in Google Scholar

Shashidhar, K. (2019). Who is ‘Middle Class’ in India, Today? Retrieved from Bloomberg: https://www.bloombergquint.com/bq-blue-exclusive/who-is-middle-class-in-india-today.Search in Google Scholar

Shome, S. (2013). India’s urbanization and business attractiveness by 2020. Cities, 31, 412-416. DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2012.06.01510.1016/j.cities.2012.06.015Search in Google Scholar

Silverstein, M. J., Singhi, A., Liao, C., & Michael, D. (2012). The $10 trillion prize: captivating the newly affluent in China and India. Boston: Harvard Business Review Press.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2007). Global Economic Prospects – Managing the Next Wave of Globalization. Washington: The World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/7157.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2018). India’s Growth Story Since the 1990s Remarkably Stable and Resilient. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/14/india-growth-story-since-1990s-remarkably-stable-resilient.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2019). Global Economic Prospects: Darkening Skies. Washington: The World Bank Group.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2019a). The changing nature of work. Washington: The World Bank Group.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2021). The World Bank data. Indicators. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator?tab=all.Search in Google Scholar

The World Bank Group (2021a). The World bank databank. World development indicators. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicatorsSearch in Google Scholar

United Nations (n.d.). World Population Prospects 2019. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wup/Country-Profiles/.Search in Google Scholar

United Nations (n.d.a). World Urbanization Prospects 2018. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wup/.Search in Google Scholar

Wang, J., & Xie, Y. (2015). Feeling good about the iron rice bowl: Economic sector and happiness in post-reform urban China. Social Science Research, 53, 203-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.05.00810.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.05.008Search in Google Scholar

Wheary, J. (2010). The Global Middle Class Is Here: Now What? World Policy Journal, 26 (4), 75-83. https://doi.org/10.1162/wopj.2010.26.4.7510.1162/wopj.2010.26.4.75Search in Google Scholar

Woetzel, J., Lin, D. Y., Seong, J., Madgavkar, A., & Lund, S. (2017). China’s role in the next phase of globalization. McKinsey Global Institute. Retrieved from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/china/chinas-role-in-the-next-phase-of-globalizationSearch in Google Scholar

Wong, D. (2021). China’s Six New Free Trade Zones: Where are they located? (2019 Expansion). China Briefing, September 2021. Retrieved from https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-free-trade-zones-six-provinces/Search in Google Scholar

Wong, S.-L. (2021a). The World Ahead 2022: China is unlikely to re-open its borders in 2022. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/china-is-unlikely-to-re-open-its-borders-in-2022Search in Google Scholar

Yu, L. (2018). China’s Free Trade Area Strategy: an alternative avenue to China’s »peaceful« rise? The Social Science Journal, 57(2), 206-218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2018.10.00910.1016/j.soscij.2018.10.009Search in Google Scholar

Recommended articles from Trend MD

Plan your remote conference with Sciendo