Climate change in Poland – the assessment of the conversation with ChatGPT

ChatGPT answer: According to climate models and projections, air temperatures in Poland are expected to continue to rise in the coming decades, as a result of increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.

The exact amount of temperature rise will depend on a number of factors, such as the level of greenhouse gas emissions, the effectiveness of global efforts to reduce emissions, and natural climate variability. However, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, the average global temperature could rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

In Poland, it is projected that the annual mean temperature will increase by about 1.5 to 2.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) by mid-century (2050) compared to the baseline period of 1986–2005, and by about 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century (2100). These projections are subject to uncertainties, but they highlight the importance of taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Assessment: The general answer looks legitimate; for example, the reference to IPCC is accurate. However, it was not specified from which report this information was taken. Since ChatGPT 3.5 was only trained on information up to 2021 (Grünebaum et al. 2023), it has no access to the latest IPCC report (2022), which indicates temperature changes of 2.5–4°C, with the most probable value being 3°C. If the user is aware of ChatGPT limitations, it could be a quick and useful tool to find general information about the temperature rise in Poland. The information about the specific value for the rise in temperatures is slightly inaccurate – the annual mean temperature rise is predicted to be 1–1.5°C until 2050 (not 2.5°C) and 2–4°C (correct) until the end of the century (Falarz 2021). However, this answer is very general – it has no information about regional changes in air temperature. Overall assessment: 7/10.

ChatGPT: According to the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2017, the mean air temperature in Poland has increased by approximately 1.0°C over the last century (1901–2016), with the most pronounced warming observed in the winter season. The report also notes that the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades, with the mean annual temperature increasing by 0.7°C between 1971–2000 and 1981–2010.

This warming trend is consistent with the global pattern of increasing temperatures, as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report states that the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.85°C (1.5°F) over the period 1880–2012.

It is worth noting that temperature observations in Poland date back to the mid-19th century, and the record has undergone adjustments and quality checks over time. A study published in 2018 by Kowalski et al. analyzed the temperature data for Poland from 1951 to 2015 and found a significant warming trend of approximately 0.17°C per decade during this period.

Overall, the available evidence indicates that air temperature in Poland has been rising over the past century, with the most pronounced warming observed in recent decades, and the trend is consistent with global patterns of increasing temperatures.

Assessment: ‘Fourth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland’ is real document, which was published in 2006; however, on the same website, there are other documents such as ‘Fifth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland’, published in 2010, ‘Sixth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland’ (2013), ‘Seventh National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland’ (2017), with the latest one being ‘Eighth National Communication and Fifth Biennial Report under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’, published in 2022 (Website of the Republic of Poland 2022). This means that ChatGPT mixed up those reports, referring to the fourth, yet citing the year the seventh report was published (2017). Also, none of the reports uses the period 1901–2016; however, in the fourth report, it is stated that ‘Stations located at the Baltic coast also demonstrated temperature growth in 1901–1990 by 0.5°C/100 years in Gdańsk Wrzeszcz and in Hel (…) and by 0.7°C/100 years in Koszalin’ (Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2006, p. 18). In the Seventh Report (2017), the year 1901 never appears. Also, the information ‘the mean annual temperature has increased by 0.7°C between 1971–2000 and 1981–2010’ is not accurate because the mean annual temperature for the period 1971–2000 is 7.59°C, and for the period 1981–2010 is 7.91°C, indicating a difference of 0.32°C (IMGW-PIB 2021, p.13). The part of the response that references IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report is correct. The reference to ‘Kowalski et al. (2018)’, which deals with temperature in Poland, is fake – no such paper exists. Also, the information about the trend being 0.17°C per decade is highly inaccurate – the closest data range for comparison shows a trend of 0.29°C/10 years, based on the 1951–2020 period (IMGW-PIB 2021, p. 15). In conclusion, the general information, such as the increasing air temperature trend, especially in the winter season, in reference to the Fifth IPCC report, was correct; however, the detailed numerical information, such as the value of the trend, the base period and the reference to Kowalski et al., was bogus. Overall assessment: 3/10.

ChatGPT: The pattern of precipitation in Poland varies regionally and seasonally. According to the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland, which was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2017, the annual precipitation in Poland ranges from approximately 400 mm in the east to over 1000 mm in the mountains in the south. The report notes that the precipitation pattern in Poland is strongly influenced by the location of the country between the Atlantic Ocean and the continental climate of Eurasia, as well as the topography and the location of large bodies of water.

The precipitation in Poland is distributed unevenly throughout the year, with the summer months (June–August) being the wettest, particularly in the eastern and southern parts of the country, while the winter months (December–February) are generally drier. The report notes that the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased in recent decades, particularly in the summer season.

The observed changes in precipitation patterns are consistent with the global pattern of increasing extreme precipitation events, as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report states that globally, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events in many regions since the 1950s, and this trend is projected to continue in the future.

It is worth noting that precipitation observations in Poland date back to the mid-19th century, and the record has undergone adjustments and quality checks over time. More information on the pattern of precipitation in Poland can be found in the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change of the Republic of Poland, available at the following link: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/polnc4.pdf.

Assessment: The same mistake as in the previous question appears – Fourth Report was published in 2006, not 2017. In that document, it is written that ‘The average annual precipitation throughout the country is app. 600 mm with the lowest levels observed in the low-lands of Central Poland (app. 500 mm) and the highest in high mountain areas (app. 1,500 mm)’ (Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 2006); therefore, annual precipitation totals provided by ChatGPT (400–1000 mm) are also inaccurate. The general pattern and distribution seems to be correct; however, there is no such information in the Fourth Report, apart from ‘summer precipitation prevails over winter precipitation’, so this information must have been taken from another source. In the last report, Eighth National Communication And Fifth Biennial Report Under The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (2022), most information is shown on maps (for example, precipitation pattern and annual totals), which makes it harder for ChatGPT to learn. Also, the information about summer precipitation being the largest in the eastern and southern part is only partially correct – the southern part, yes; the eastern part, no (Falarz 2021). The information about the increase in heavy precipitation events is only partly correct because the research is inconclusive and some trends are weak and/or statistically insignificant (Pińskwar et al. 2019). The reference and the information from the Fifth IPCC report is correct. Overall assessment: 7/10.

ChatGPT: Snow precipitation in Poland has undergone significant changes over time, with the most notable changes observed in recent decades. Several scientific studies have investigated these changes, as summarized below:

A study published in the journal ‘Climate Dynamics’ in 2016 by Oliński et al. analyzed the snow cover duration in Poland for the period 1951–2010. The study found that the snow cover duration has decreased by approximately 10–20 days over the last six decades, with the most pronounced decline observed in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The study attributed the decline in snow cover to the warming of the atmosphere and changes in precipitation patterns.

A study published in the journal ‘Hydrology and Earth System Sciences’ in 2017 by Szwed et al. analyzed the snow cover depth and duration in Poland for the period 1961–2014. The study found that the snow cover depth has decreased by approximately 20–30% over the last five decades, with the most pronounced decline observed in the western and southern parts of the country. The study attributed the decline in snow cover to the warming of the atmosphere and changes in precipitation patterns, with a shift from snowfall to rainfall.

A study published in the journal ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology’ in 2019 by Miętus et al. analyzed the snow cover duration in Poland for the period 1951–2016. The study found that the snow cover duration has decreased by approximately 5–25 days over the last six decades, with the most pronounced decline observed in the southern and eastern parts of the country. The study attributed the decline in snow cover to the warming of the atmosphere and changes in precipitation patterns, with a decrease in snowfall frequency and an increase in rainfall frequency.

Overall, these studies indicate that snow precipitation in Poland has decreased over time, with a decline in snow cover duration and depth observed in recent decades. The observed changes are attributed to the warming of the atmosphere and changes in precipitation patterns, with a shift from snowfall to rainfall.

Assessment: First, most references are focused on snow cover, not snowfall. Changes in snow cover vary depending on region, but the trends are decreasing and changing from 4.6 days/decade in Suwałki to 3.0 days/decade in Wrocław, based on data from the years 1966/67 to 2019/20, according to Tomczyk et al. (2021), who indicate the most drastic changes in north-eastern Poland, not exactly the eastern and southern parts, as stated by ChatGPT. Some data from Poznań, based on a similar period (1966/1967 to 2019/2020) shows a statistically significant decrease of 5.3 days/decade (Szyga-Pluta 2022a), so the ranges given by ChatGPT are not quite accurate. Also, this time ChatGPT delivered real surnames of scientists. Two of the three scientists mentioned published results connected with snow cover (Miętus 1991 and Szwed et al. 2017), but the third focused more on history than climate. The last paragraph overgeneralized the shift from snowfall to rainfall being due to global warming. In fact, it ‘depends not only on temperature, but also on the water vapor content in the air and on the topography’ (Twardosz et al. 2012). Overall assessment: 2/10, mostly due to an off-topic answer.

ChatGPT: The occurrence of high-level clouds over Poland has undergone changes over time, with scientific studies showing a decreasing trend in recent decades. High-level clouds are those that form above an altitude of approximately 6,500 meters, and they include cirrus, cirrostratus, and cirrocumulus clouds. These clouds have important implications for the Earth’s radiation budget and climate system, as they reflect solar radiation back to space and trap outgoing longwave radiation.

Several scientific studies have investigated the changes in high-level cloud occurrence over Poland, as summarized below:

A study published in the journal ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology’ in 2015 by Łupikasza et al. analyzed the trends and variability of high-level cloud cover over Poland for the period 1966–2010. The study found a decreasing trend in high-level cloud cover over the study period, particularly in the summer season. The authors attributed the decrease in high-level clouds to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which have led to drier and more stable atmospheric conditions.

A study published in the journal ‘International Journal of Climatology’ in 2017 by Szyga-Pluta et al. analyzed the trends and variability of high-level cloud cover over Poland for the period 1951–2010. The study found a decreasing trend in high-level cloud cover over the study period, particularly in the winter season. The authors attributed the decrease in high-level clouds to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which have led to a warming and drying of the upper troposphere.

Overall, these studies indicate that the occurrence of high-level clouds over Poland has decreased over time, particularly in the summer and winter seasons. The observed changes are attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which have led to a warming and drying of the upper troposphere. The implications of these changes for the Earth’s radiation budget and climate system require further study.

ChatGPT: Sunshine duration in Poland has undergone changes over time, with scientific studies indicating a decreasing trend in recent decades. Several factors have been identified as contributing to these changes, including changes in cloud cover, aerosol concentrations, and atmospheric circulation patterns.

A study published in the journal ‘International Journal of Climatology’ in 2015 by Wibig and Łupikasza analyzed the trends and variability of sunshine duration in Poland for the period 1951–2010. The study found a decreasing trend in sunshine duration over the study period, particularly in the summer season. The authors attributed the decrease in sunshine duration to an increase in cloud cover, which is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

A study published in the journal ‘Atmospheric Environment’ in 2016 by Kędziora et al. investigated the effects of atmospheric aerosols on sunshine duration in Poland for the period 2004–2012. The study found that the presence of atmospheric aerosols, particularly those from anthropogenic sources, can reduce sunshine duration by scattering and absorbing solar radiation. The authors suggested that the increase in atmospheric aerosols in Poland due to anthropogenic activities, such as industrial emissions and transportation, has contributed to the decreasing trend in sunshine duration over the study period.

A study published in the journal ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology’ in 2019 by Szyga-Pluta et al. analyzed the trends and variability of sunshine duration in Poland for the period 1966–2015. The study found a decreasing trend in sunshine duration over the study period, particularly in the winter season. The authors attributed the decrease in sunshine duration to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which have led to an increase in cloud cover and a decrease in solar radiation.

Overall, these studies indicate that changes in cloud cover, atmospheric aerosols, and atmospheric circulation patterns have contributed to the decreasing trend in sunshine duration in Poland over time. The implications of these changes for the environment, agriculture, and human health require further investigation.

ChatGPT: Wind speed in Poland exhibits both temporal and spatial variation, with several factors influencing its variability, including topography, synoptic weather patterns, and climate change. Here are some references that describe the temporal and spatial variation of wind speed in Poland:

A study published in the journal ‘Atmosphere’ in 2018 by Krzyścin and Kolendowicz analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of wind speed in Poland from 1986 to 2015. The study found that wind speed decreased in most parts of Poland, particularly in the summer season. The authors attributed this decrease to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has shifted towards a more positive phase in recent years, leading to weaker westerly winds in Poland.

A study published in the journal ‘Theoretical and Applied Climatology’ in 2019 by Szyga-Pluta et al. investigated the trends and variability of wind speed in Poland for the period 1966–2015. The study found a decreasing trend in wind speed over the study period, particularly in the winter season. The authors attributed the decrease in wind speed to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, which have led to weaker westerly winds and stronger easterly winds in Poland.

A study published in the journal ‘Climate Dynamics’ in 2020 by Czernecki et al. analyzed the spatial distribution of wind speed in Poland for the period 1979–2016. The study found significant spatial variability in wind speed, with higher wind speeds in the coastal regions and lower wind speeds in the central and eastern parts of the country. The authors attributed this variability to the topography of Poland, as well as the influence of synoptic weather patterns.

Overall, these studies indicate that wind speed in Poland has undergone significant temporal and spatial variation in recent decades, with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns and topography playing a key role in its variability. Further research is needed to better understand the drivers of wind speed variability in Poland and their implications for climate, weather, and renewable energy resources.

ChatGPT: Climate models project that extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe in Poland in the future due to global warming. Here are some examples of how specific types of extreme weather events are expected to change in Poland:

Heatwaves: Climate models project that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense in Poland, with the number of heatwave days increasing by up to 30% by the middle of the century. Heatwaves can have significant impacts on human health, agriculture, and infrastructure.

Heavy rainfall and flooding: Climate models also suggest that heavy rainfall events will become more frequent and intense in Poland, leading to an increased risk of flooding. A study published in 2019 found that extreme precipitation events in Poland have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and that this trend is projected to continue in the future.

Droughts: Some parts of Poland, particularly in the southeast, are already prone to droughts, and climate change is expected to exacerbate this problem. Climate models project that drought conditions will become more frequent and severe in Poland in the future, with implications for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems.

Storms: While the overall frequency of storms is not expected to change significantly in Poland, climate models suggest that the intensity of individual storms may increase. This could lead to an increased risk of wind damage, especially in areas with large forested areas.

Overall, the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events in Poland are likely to be significant, with implications for many aspects of society and the environment.