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The effect of child benefit on female labor supply

Iga Magda
Iga Magda
, 
Aneta Kiełczewska
Aneta Kiełczewska
 and 
Nicola Brandt
Nicola Brandt
   | Dec 17, 2020
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Published Online: Dec 17, 2020
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0017
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© 2020 Iga Magda, Aneta Kiełczewska and Nicola Brandt, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Labor force participation rates of women aged 20–49 years with a partner (left) and without a partner (right) differentiated by the presence of children.Note: 2017: only for the first half of the year.Source: Own calculations based on Polish Labor Force Survey data.
Labor force participation rates of women aged 20–49 years with a partner (left) and without a partner (right) differentiated by the presence of children.Note: 2017: only for the first half of the year.Source: Own calculations based on Polish Labor Force Survey data.

Balancing t-test of differences in means of covariates between the control and treated groups, 2015

Socioeconomic variablesRawWith weighted covariates
ControlTreatedDifferenceControlTreatedDifference
Unemployed (share among active)0.0570.0840.027***0.1020.090-0.012
Age: 20-24 years0.0230.010-0.013***0.0110.0110.000
Age: 25-29 years0.1180.068-0.050***0.0720.0730.001
Age: 30-34 years0.2120.2300.018**0.2410.239-0.002
Age: 35-39 years0.2180.3660.149***0.3500.3710.021
Age: 40-44 years0.2500.244-0.0060.2400.226-0.014
Age: 45-49 years0.1790.081-0.098***0.0860.081-0.005
Level of education: high0.4480.4540.0060.4440.4470.003
Level of education: medium0.3450.338-0.0080.3450.342-0.003
Level of education: low0.2060.2080.0020.2110.2110.000
Age of the youngest child: 0-3 years0.1900.2360.046***0.2310.2460.015
Age of the youngest child: 4-6 years0.1780.2460.068***0.2440.241-0.003
Age of the youngest child: 7-17 years0.6330.518-0.114***0.5250.513-0.012
Main source of household income: contract work0.7500.704-0.046***0.6980.7010.003
Main source of household income: own agricultural farm0.0700.0850.015***0.0970.092-0.005
Main source of household income: self-employment0.1170.1350.018***0.1210.1270.006
Main source of household income: other0.0630.0760.013***0.0840.081-0.004
Presence of the partner in the household0.8160.8530.037***0.8440.8530.010
Place of residence: large city0.2780.254-0.024***0.2290.2340.005
Place of residence: medium city0.2000.176-0.024***0.1800.175-0.005
Place of residence: small city0.1360.127-0.0090.1350.1370.001
Place of residence: rural area0.3860.4440.057***0.4560.455-0.001
Number of observations3,0072,309-3,0072,309-

The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers with two children, separately for partnered and single women

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016)–0.018***–0.053***
Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017)–0.030***–0.040***
Observations184,820145,496
R-squared0.1220.340

The effect of child benefits on employment of mothers, separately for partnered and single women, aged 20–49 years, with one or two children

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016)–0.020***–0.002
Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017)–0.029***–0.036***
Observations299,662129,506
R-squared0.1160.277

Placebo tests for main difference-in-differences specification

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
(A) Regression for 2010–2017 with all potential placebo/treatment effects
Group effect (γ)–0.055***0.005
Placebo treatment effect (θ) - 2010/2011–0.012*–0.002
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2011/2012–0.005–0.004
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2012/2013–0.0000.002
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2013/20140.007–0.003
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2014/20150.0080.001
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2015/2016–0.007–0.014
Treatment effect (θ) – 2016/2017–0.023***–0.023*
Observations300,792174,872
R-squared0.1190.316
(B) Regression for 2009–2016 as in main specification
Group effect (γ)–0.051***0.013**
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2015/2016–0.007–0.012
Observations293,428170,532
R-squared0.1200.310
(C) Regression for 2008–2015 as in main specification
Group effect (γ)–0.049***0.011*
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2014/20150.0070.008
Observations282,988165,472
R-squared0.1220.301
(D) Regression for 2007–2014 as in main specification
Group effect (γ)–0.045***0.003
Placebo treatment effect (θ) – 2013/20140.0050.012
Observations269,835158,947
R-squared0.1240.292

The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers, for women aged 20–49 years with one or two children

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Group effect (γ)–0.057***0.002
Treatment effect (θ)–0.021***–0.020***
Observations300,792174,872
R-squared0.1190.316

Heterogeneous treatment effects for single women (treated group - women with one or two children, control group - childless women)

Modelestimated coefficient
Model with interactions for educational level
(Educational level – base: tertiary)
        Treatment effect for tertiary education–0.008
        Difference in treatment effect for secondary education–0.013
        Difference in treatment effect for basic vocational or lower education–0.013
Model with interactions for place of residence
(Place of residence – base: city with >100,000inhabitants)
        Treatment effect for cities with >100,000inhabitants–0.008
        Difference in treatment effect for cities with 20,000–100,000inhabitants–0.001
        Difference in treatment effect for cities with <20,000inhabitants–0.024
        Difference in treatment effect for rural areas–0.016
Model with interactions for age
(Age – base: 30–39 years)
        Treatment effect for age 30–39 years–0.011
        Difference in treatment effect for age 20–29 years–0.006
        Difference in treatment effect for age 40–49 years–0.008
Model with interactions for number of children
(Number of children – base: two)
        Treatment effect for mothers of two children–0.048***
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of one child0.040**
Model with interactions for age of the youngest child
(Age of the youngest child – base: 7–12 years)
        Treatment effect for mothers of children aged 7–12 years–0.036***
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 0–1 years0.067**
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 2–3 years–0.005
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 4–6 years0.023
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 13–17 years0.025

Heterogeneous treatment effects for partnered women (treated group - women with one or two children, control group - childless women)

Modelestimated coefficient
Model with interactions for educational level
(Educational level – base: tertiary)
        Treatment effect for tertiary education–0.009
        Difference in treatment effect for secondary education–0.023**
        Difference in treatment effect for basic vocational or lower education–0.036**
Model with interactions for place of residence
(Place of residence – base: city with >100,000 inhabitants)
        Treatment effect for cities with >100,000inhabitants–0.004
        Difference in treatment effect for cities with 20,000–100,000 inhabitants–0.051***
        Difference in treatment effect for cities with <20,000 inhabitants–0.011
        Difference in treatment effect for rural areas–0.013
Model with interactions for age
(Age – base: 30–39 years)
        Treatment effect for age 30–39 years–0.010
        Difference in treatment effect for age 20–29 years–0.034***
        Difference in treatment effect for age 40–49 years–0.012
Model with interactions for number of children
(Number of children – base: two)
        Treatment effect for mothers of two children–0.024***
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of one child0.006
Model with interactions for age of the youngest child
(Age of the youngest child – base: 7–12 years)
        Treatment effect for mothers of children aged 7–12 years–0.040***
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 0–1 years0.071***
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 2–3 years–0.000
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 4–6 years0.021**
        Difference in treatment effect for mothers of children aged 13–17 years0.012

Descriptive statistics for women aged 20–49 years in 2016 (treated group – women with one or two children; control group – childless women)

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Control (%)Treated (%)Control (%)Treated (%)
Labor market status: employed82736168
Labor market status: unemployed4487
Labor market status: inactive14233125
Age: 20–29 years24186123
Age: 30–39 years20512045
Age: 40–49 years56311932
Place of residence: city with35283432
>100,000 inhabitants
Place of residence: city with19191621
20,000–100,000 inhabitants
Place of residence: city with <20,000 inhabitants11121113
Place of residence: rural area35423934
Educational level: tertiary40454432
Educational level: secondary34344040
Educational level: basic vocational or lower26211629
Student status52263
Labor market status of partner: employed8993--
Labor market status of partner: unemployed33--
Labor market status of partner: inactive84--
Educational level of partner: tertiary2630--
Educational level of partner: secondary3435--
Educational level of partner: basic vocational or lower4035--

The dynamics of the effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers (women aged 20–49 years with one or two children)

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Treatment effect in the 2nd half of 2016 (θ2016)–0.016**–0.017
Treatment effect in the 1st half of 2017 (θ2017)–0.026***–0.023**
Observations300,792174,872
R-squared0.1190.316

The effect of child benefits on labor market withdrawal rates, separately for partnered and single women (women aged 20–49 years with one or two children)

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Treatment effect (θ)0.016**0.07
Observations10,3106,322
R-squared0.020.045

The impact of child benefits on labor market withdrawal rates – results from a difference-in-differences estimation with kernel propensity score matching

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Treatment effect (θ)0.022***0.014***
Observations10,3106,311

The effect of child benefits on labor force participation of mothers, for women aged 20–49 years with one or two children: full set of estimated coefficients

Socioeconomic variablesPartnered womenSingle women
Group effect (γ)–0.057***0.002
Treatment effect (θ)–0.021***–0.020***
Half year - base: 2nd half of 20151st half of 20100.017***0.071***
2nd half of 20100.011***0.059***
1st half of 20110.013***0.049***
2nd half of 20110.010**0.048***
1st half of 20120.010**0.051***
2nd half of 20120.0070.040***
1st half of 20130.0000.042***
2nd half of 20130.0030.028***
1st half of 20140.0070.036***
2nd half of 20140.0050.018***
1st half of 20150.0020.012**
1st half of 2016–0.0040.019***
2nd half of 2016–0.0030.017***
1st half of 20170.0000.025***
Quarter – base: 1st or 3rd2nd quarter–0.0020.001
4th quarter0.002–0.001
Age - base: 30–39 years20–29–0.087***–0.026***
40–49–0.013***0.004
Place of residence - base: city withCity with <100,000 inhabitants–0.013***0.007***
>100,000 inhabitantsRural areas–0.015***0.006**
Educational level - base: tertiarySecondary–0.146***–0.148***
Basic vocational or lower–0.235***–0.322***
Number of children - base: twoOne child0.024***0.048***
Age of the youngest child - base:0–1 years–0.214***–0.319***
7–12 years2–3 years–0.161***–0.201***
4–6 years–0.051***–0.050***
13–17 years0.046***0.023***
Student status–0.094***–0.496***
Voivodeships - base: ZachodniopomorskieDolnośląskie0.043***0.050***
Kujawsko–Pomorskie0.043***0.034***
Lubelskie0.077***–0.012**
Lubuskie0.049***0.002
Łódzkie0.078***0.048***
Małopolskie0.039***0.019***
Mazowieckie0.056***0.058***
Opolskie0.026***0.025***
Podkarpackie0.055***–0.002
Podlaskie0.078***0.006
Pomorskie0.011**0.041***
Śląskie0.015***0.050***
Świętokrzyskie0.054***0.012*
Warmińsko–Mazurskie0.022***–0.029***
Wielkopolskie0.028***0.056***
Labor market status of partner - base: employedUnemployed–0.001
Inactive–0.076***
Educational level of partner - base: tertiarySecondary–0.003
Basic vocational or lower–0.020***
Constant0.991***0.920***
Observations300,792174,872
R-squared0.1190.316
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