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The distributional impact of the Sierra Leone conflict on household welfare

Barry Reilly
Barry Reilly
 and 
Hannah Sam
Hannah Sam
   | Dec 04, 2022
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Published Online: Dec 04, 2022
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Accepted: Oct 08, 2022
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2022-0009
Keywords
© 2022 Barry Reilly et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989).
(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (1989).

Figure 2

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003).
(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2003).

Figure 3

(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011).
(A) The Density Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011). (B) The Distribution Functions of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure (2011).

Figure 4

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (1989).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using expression Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.
Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (1989).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using expression Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Figure 5

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2003).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.
Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2003).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Figure 6

Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2011).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.
Point Estimates and 95% Confidence Intervals for Quantile Conflict Treatment Effects (2011).Notes: The QTT point estimates are derived using the expression in Eq. (4) in the text with the variables included in the local logistic treatment assignment equation described in the notes to Table 7. The 95% confidence intervals are based on bootstrapping with 250 replications. The mean estimate is obtained using a regression model containing the same set of covariates.

Figure A1

Conflict Exposure by Rebel Occupation based on the Presence of Rebel Headquarters by Chiefdom.
Conflict Exposure by Rebel Occupation based on the Presence of Rebel Headquarters by Chiefdom.

Mean and Quantile Treatment Effects using the Log of Household Expenditure

Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure −0.0831 (0.0588) −0.0560 (0.0825) −0.1853*** (0.0769) −0.0813 (0.1476) −0.0115 (0.0876) 0.1183 (0.1213)
Observations 3,439 3,422 3422 3422 3422 3422
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.4437*** (0.0531) −0.1624*** (0.0547) −0.3065*** (0.0635) −0.3974*** (0.0392) −0.5515*** (0.0336) −0.6821*** (0.0579)
Observations 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.2601*** (0.0498) 0.0786** (0.0332) −0.0390** (0.0189) −0.1401*** (0.0161) −0.2726*** (0.0269) −0.3013*** (0.0388)
Observations 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Affected Households (Self-reported) at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and percentiles 2003
Mean −0.5345*** (0.0419)
10th −0.2045*** (0.0456)
25th −0.3553*** (0.0434)
50th −0.4663*** (0.0370)
75th −0.6084*** (0.0374)
90th −0.7859*** (0.0403)
Observations: 3696
Treatment 1319
Control 2377

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure 0.1043 (0.0411) −0.0507 (0.0693) 0.0664 (0.0778) 0.2282 (0.1420) 0.4757*** (0.0651) 0.2630*** (0.0758)
Observations 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.1472*** (0.0486) −0.0265 (0.0483) −0.0762** (0.0378) −0.1585*** (0.0310) −0.3421*** (0.0462) −0.5065*** (0.0517)
Observations 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.1612*** (0.0377) −0.0980** (0.0271) −0.0933*** (0.0264) −0.1066*** (0.0218) −0.1562*** (0.0287) −0.2121*** (0.0447)
Observations 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects of Conflict on Log Household Expenditure using Self-reported Conflict Events

OLS 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
2003:
Conflict events −0.446*** (0.0460) −0.1796*** (0.0561) −0.2906*** (0.0582) −0.3885*** (0.0375) −0.5469*** (0.0381) −0.6834*** (0.0576)
Observations 3696 3696 3696 3696 3696 3696

Semi-parametric Local Logistic Treatment Assignment Regression Model – Quantile Treatment Effect Estimation for Conflict Exposure

Variables 1989 2003 2011
Head's age 0.0008615 (0.022450) 0.00661** (0.00290) −0.00220 (0.0113)
Head's age sq −0.000124*** (3.93e–05) - −4.33e–05 (0.000104)
Head male −0.171 (0.146) 0.626*** (0.186) 0.338*** (0.0736)
Married head 0.0970 (0.182) −0.657*** (0.210) −0.294 (0.261)
Dependency ratio −0.122** (0.0599) 0.186 (0.122) 0.173** (0.0779)
Urban settlement 0.0205 (0.177) −1.974*** (0.282) −3.046*** (0.196)
Primary education −0.670*** (0.0944) 0.957*** (0.235) 0.472*** (0.165)
Higher education - 0.790* (0.433) −0.493*** (0.0752)
Household size −0.0723* (0.0403) −0.149*** (0.0570) −0.152*** (0.0379)
Primary × urban - −0.867*** (0.306) −0.270 (0.216)
Head male × urban - −1.496*** (0.287)
Household size squared 0.00192 (0.00225) 0.00312 (0.00330) 0.00336* (0.00196)
Household size × urban −0.0245 (0.0250) 0.161*** (0.0291) 0.195*** (0.0211)
Married × urban - 1.843*** (0.297) 0.424*** (0.142)
Muslim - 0.545*** (0.126) −0.724*** (0.0999)
Temne tribe - −1.886*** (0.0915) -
Muslim × urban - 0.222 (0.179) 0.670*** (0.136)
Higher education × urban - −1.727*** (0.500) -
Dependency ratio × urban 0.0843 (0.0945) −0.234*** (0.0523)
Dependency ratio squared - 0.00934 (0.0131)
Constant 2.523*** (0.227) 1.651*** (0.310) 2.444*** (0.348)
Observations 3439 3702 6763

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using the Inverse Probability Weighting Procedure (without Freetown)

Conflict Exposure
1989 2003 2011
ATT 0.0031 (0.0147)3439 −0.0780*** (0.0127)3582 −0.0003 (0.0047)6,656
Observations:
Treatment 1167 1666 4041
Control 2272 1916 2615

Log Household Expenditure Differentials between Conflict and Non-conflict Zones at the Mean and Selected Quantiles

Mean and selected percentiles 1989 2003 2011
Mean 0.0526 (0.0621) −0.5447*** (0.0502) −0.3318*** (0.0403)
10th −0.2506*** (0.0611) −0.1923*** (0.0552) −0.0037 (0.0026)
25th −0.1037*** (0.0649) −0.3762*** (0.0413) −0.1453*** (0.1806
50th −0.0000 (0.1028) −0.4798*** (0.0354) −0.3444*** (0.0193)
75th 0.3696*** (0.0777) −0.6325*** (0.0375) −0.4967*** (0.0217)
90th 0.1589** (0.0813) −0.7974*** (0.0528) −0.5485*** (0.0317)
Observations: 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1167 1666 4041
Control 2272 2036 2722

Summary Statistics of Household Characteristics by Conflict Exposure

1989 2003 2011
Conflict Non-conflict Conflict Non-conflict Conflict Non-conflict
Head's characteristics:
Age 44.43 (11.44) 43.75 (11.91) 46.8013.99 46.1914.29 45.7014.68 45.4913.83
Age squared 2104.39 (1119.90) 2056.01 (1193.83) 2386.051461.48 2337.351483.03 2304.351515.08 2259.991409.94
Gender:
Male 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.72 0.74
Female 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.26 0.24
Education:
Primary 0.68 0.56 0.09 0.08 0.08 0.09
High 0.32 0.44 0.02 0.04 0.12 0.11
Secondary - - 0.12 0.20 0.05 0.21
No education - - 0.75 0.64 0.76 0.59
Marital Status:
Married 0.92 0.92 0.84 0.79 0.81 0.77
Cohabit 0.04 0.06 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Other status 0.05 0.09 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.15
Single 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.03 0.06
Tribes:
Mende - - 0.38 0.37 - -
Temne - - 0.24 0.23 - -
Other tribes - - 0.38 0.40 - -
Religion:
Muslim - - - - 0.78 0.74
Christian - - - - 0.21 0.25
Other religions - - - - 0.01 0.01
Other Characteristics:
Urban 0.33 0.35 0.30 0.40 0.17 0.48
Dependency ratio 0.99 0.91 0.95 0.94 1.08 1.15
0.91 0.93 0.90 0.87 1.03 1.16
Household size 6.16 5.29 6.28 6.11 5.64 5.61
4.05 3.34 2.61 2.85 2.47 2.67
Household size squared 54.37 39.14 46.28 45.43 37.98 38.76
69.71 50.22 40.48 45.55 35.66 42.79
Sample size 1167 2272 1666 2036 2722 4041

Logistic Treatment Assignment Model for Conflict Exposure and Conflict Events

1989 2003 2011
Conflict Exposure Conflict Exposure Conflict Events Conflict Exposure
Age of head 0.00789 (0.0199) 0.0183 (0.0138) 0.0275* (0.0159) −0.0364*** (0.0104)
Age of head square −0.000157 (0.000200) −0.000162 (0.000131) −0.000195 (0.000151) 0.000330*** (0.00010)
Head being male 0.206 (0.126) −0.192 (0.154) 0.620*** (0.185) −0.0641 (0.0826)
Head married −0.0147 (0.163) −0.164 (0.166) −0.568*** (0.208) −0.0602 (0.0991)
Dependency ratio 0.0241 (0.0554) 0.0530 (0.0499) −0.0995* (0.0589) −0.0231 (0.0308)
Urban −0.118 (0.149) −0.978*** (0.246) −1.082*** (0.284) −2.127*** (0.201)
Head with prim educ 0.535*** (0.0804) −0.0175 (0.160) 0.882*** (0.224) −0.228* (0.125)
Head with higher educ - −0.469** (0.206) −0.478** (0.204) −0.0725 (0.123)
Household size −0.0322 (0.0376) 0.210*** (0.0492) −0.275*** (0.0601) −0.00466 (0.0297)
Head with prim edu × urban - 0.408* (0.243) −0.767** (0.303) 0.0987 (0.218)
Head male × urban - 0.131 (0.257) −1.142*** (0.298) −0.310** (0.157)
Dependency ratio × urban 0.0530 (0.0873) −0.0706 (0.0799) −0.326*** (0.0948) −0.0557 (0.0545)
Household size square 0.00615*** (0.00219) −0.0114*** (0.00304) 0.00863** (0.00352) −0.00193 (0.00188)
Household size × urban 0.00229 (0.0229) −0.0409 (0.0268) 0.0953*** (0.0297) 0.0886*** (0.0225)
Head married × urban −0.200 (0.326) 0.967*** (0.262) 1.552*** (0.311) 0.391** (0.170)
Head Muslim - 0.330*** (0.0836) 0.520*** (0.0940) −0.0841 (0.0771)
Head × Temne tribe - −0.0129 (0.0817) −1.711*** (0.0911) -
Head × Muslim × urban - - - 0.151 (0.141)
Constant −1.294*** (0.486) −1.299*** (0.393) 1.449*** (0.465) 1.216*** (0.274)
LRT 105.55 137.95 590.44 781.24
LRT prob-value 0.0000 0.00 0.00 0.000
McFadden R2 0.0240 0.0271 0.129 0.0867
Observations 3,439 3,702 3,697 6,763

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Alternative Conflict Measures

Estimation Methods Exposure (7 years cut-off) Exposure (above median dummy)
1989 2003 2011 1989 2003 2011
(1) Unweighted 0.0040 (0.0157) −0.0912*** (0.0128) −0.0055 (0.0052) 0.0257 (0.0185) −0.0952*** (0.0141) −0.0147** (0.0051)
(2) Weighted 0.0030 (0.0141) −0.0805*** (0.0131) 0.0037 (0.0038) 0.0263 (0.0214) −0.0811*** (0.0138) −0.0074 (0.0046)
(3) PS regressor 0.0041 (0.0198) −0.0924*** (0.0157) −0.0035 (0.0052) 0.0254 (0.0189) −0.0954*** (0.0152) −0.0139* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT) 0.0109 (0.0188) −0.0563*** (0.0189) 0.0051 (0.0084) 0.0365 (0.0194) −0.0768*** (0.0238) −0.0758 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT) 0.0031 (0.0145) −0.0845*** (0.0132) −0.0001 (0.0056) 0.0253 (0.0174) −0.0827*** (0.0138) −0.0168** (0.0053)
Observations: 3439 3702 6763 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1167 1666 4041 1954 1965 4041
Control 2272 2036 2722 1485 1737 2722

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure using Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above the Median

Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure 0.1043 (0.0411) −0.0505 (0.0692) 0.0661 (0.0776) 0.2283 (0.1421) 0.4849*** (0.0649) 0.2627*** (0.0763)
Observations 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.1468*** (0.0485) −0.0255 (0.0481) −0.0761 (0.0379) −0.1594*** (0.0309) −0.3416*** (0.0451) −0.5074*** (0.0517)
Observations 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.1607*** (0.0377) −0.0974** (0.0264) −0.0934*** (0.0265) −0.1065*** (0.0217) −0.1563*** (0.0285) −0.2119*** (0.0456)
Observations 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763

The Impact of Conflict on the Distribution of Expenditure using the Gini Coefficient

Estimation Methods Conflict Exposure
1989 2003 2011
(1) Unweighted 0.0039 (0.0156) −0.0908*** (0.0126) −0.0051 (0.0050)
(2) Weighted 0.0025 (0.0140) −0.0804*** (0.0125) 0.0037 (0.0048)
(3) PS regressor 0.0039 (0.0197) −0.0912*** (0.0152) −0.0030 (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT) 0.0108 (0.0184) −0.0552*** (0.0183) 0.0048 (0.0081)
(5) IPW (ATT) 0.0031 (0.0147) −0.0834*** (0.0125) −0.0001 (0.0048)
Observations: 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1167 1666 4041
Control 2272 2036 2722

Standard Deviation of Log of Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

1989 2003 2011
Standard deviation:
Overall 1.4596 0.7627 0.6121
Conflict 1.5661 0.6013 0.5602
Non-conflict 1.3997 0.8608 0.6230
Change 0.1664 −0.2595 −0.0628
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989) n/a −0.4259 n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989) n/a n/a −0.2292
Observations: 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1167 1666 4041
Control 2272 2036 2722

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Self-reported Conflict Events

Conflict Events
Estimation Methods 2003
(1) Unweighted −0.0802*** (0.0183)
(2) Weighted −0.0751*** (0.0214)
(3) PS regressor −0.0800*** (0.0169)
(4) Matching (ATT) −0.0691*** (0.0265)
(5) IPW (ATT) −0.0736*** (0.0395)
Observations: 3696
Treatment 1319
Control 2377

Post-war (2011) Covariate balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

Treated Control %Bias t-value p > t Variance Ratio
Age of head 45.71 46.06 −2.40 −0.87 0.38 1.05
Head with primary educ 0.07 0.06 0.90 0.36 0.72 1.05
Head with higher educ 0.05 0.04 1.60 0.70 0.48 1.09
Head male 0.73 0.74 −2.20 −0.78 0.44 1.03
Head married 0.81 0.82 −2.40 −0.92 0.36 1.03
Dependency ratio 1.08 1.09 −0.80 −0.30 0.77 1.01
Household size 5.65 5.66 −0.40 −0.17 0.86 1.11
Age of head squared 2304.41 2320.10 −1.10 −0.38 0.70 1.06
Urban 0.17 0.17 −0.20 −0.09 0.93 0.99
Dependency ratio × urban 0.19 0.19 −0.40 −0.19 0.85 1.04
Head being married × urban 0.12 0.12 −0.30 −0.12 0.91 0.99
Head being male × urban 0.11 0.12 −0.80 −0.36 0.72 0.97
Head with prim educ × urban 0.02 0.02 −0.10 −0.06 0.96 0.99
Household size × urban 0.95 0.93 0.50 0.22 0.82 1.01
Household size sq 37.98 37.45 1.30 0.54 0.59 1.11
Head a Muslim 0.78 0.78 −1.10 −0.40 0.69 1.02
Head a Muslim × urban 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.99 1.00

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Interaction between Main Conflict Exposure measure and Conflict Deaths per Chiefdom Above Median

Estimation Methods Conflict Exposure Interacted with the above Median Deaths Dummy
1989 2003 2011
(1) Unweighted 0.0232 (0.0195) −0.0948*** (0.0138) −0.0148** (0.0050)
(2) Weighted 0.0252 (0.0224) −0.0810*** (0.0136) −0.0076 (0.0041)
(3) PS regressor 0.0250 (0.0191) −0.0965*** (0.0153) −0.0139* (0.0050)
(4) Matching (ATT) 0.0361 (0.0193 −0.0772*** (0.0241) −0.0754 (0.0571)
(5) IPW (ATT) 0.0242 (0.0184) −0.0830*** (0.0137) −0.0170** (0.0052)
Observations: 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1954 1965 4041
Control 1485 1737 2722

Post-war (2003) Covariate Balancing Tests using Conflict Exposure

Treated Control %Bias t-value p >t Variance Ratio
Age of head 46.80 46.66 1.00 0.29 0.77 0.99
Age of head sq 2386.00 2374.70 0.80 0.22 0.82 0.99
Head male 0.82 0.83 −4.90 −1.47 0.14 0.87
Head married 0.84 0.86 −5.10 −1.58 0.11 1.11
Dependency ratio 0.95 0.94 1.50 0.44 0.66 1.10
Urban 0.30 0.30 −0.80 −0.24 0.81 0.99
Head with prim educ 0.09 0.09 0.30 0.09 0.93 1.01
Head with higher educ 0.02 0.02 0.20 0.06 0.95 1.01
Household size 6.28 6.25 1.30 0.40 0.69 1.01
Head prim educ × urban 0.04 0.04 0.70 0.22 0.83 1.04
Head being male × urban 0.25 0.25 −0.60 −0.17 0.86 0.98
Dependency ratio × urban 0.30 0.30 −0.20 −0.08 0.94 1.08
Household size sq 46.28 45.75 1.20 0.38 0.71 1.01
Household size × urban 1.87 1.90 −0.80 −0.24 0.81 0.99
Head married × urban 0.25 0.26 −1.60 −0.46 0.65 0.98
Head a Muslim 0.80 0.80 −0.10 −0.02 0.99 1.00
Head from Temne tribe 0.24 0.24 0.30 0.07 0.94 1.00

Pre-war and Post-war Balancing Property Diagnostics

Years Pseudo R2 LRT Chi-squared prob > Chi-squared Mean Bias Median Bias B R %Concern %Bad
1989:
Unmatched 0.038 137.33 0.00 18.20 21.80 43.10* 2.52* 33.00 8.00
Matched 0.002 11.20 0.43 2.10 1.60 9.10 1.24 0.00 0.00
2003:
Unmatched 0.149 661.03 0.00 18.40 14.00 97.6* 0.73 59.00 12.00
Matched 0.003 19.84 0.283 2.40 2.10 13.00 1.46 0.00 0.00
2011:
Unmatched 0.128 1143.23 0.00 25.00 11.30 89.71* 1.03 35.00 24.00
Matched 0.001 10.79 0.866 1.20 0.80 7.40 1.15 0.00 0.00

Chiefdom Allocation to “Treatment” and “Control” Group

Years in Survey Chiefdoms in Treatment Group Chiefdoms in Control Group
1989, 2003, and 2011 Eastern Regions:BiriwaBombali ShebroBumDamaFiamaJawieManduLower BambaraNimikoroNjaluahunNongowaSimbaruSmall BoTankoroNorthern RegionGbanti-KamarankaGbendembu NdowahunGbinleh DixingSouthern Region:JongKaiyambaPanga KaboneValuniaBumpehFakunyaNorthern Region:KoyaMagbemaMakari GbantiMalalMamboloMasungbalaSanda LokoSella Limba Eastern Region:MalegohunGbenseGorama KonoNorthern Region:Paki MasabongSamuDembelia SinkuniaFollosaba DembeliaSulimaWara Wara YagalaKaffu BullomLokomasamaMaforkiMarampaGbonkolenkenKholifa MabangKunike BarinaSouthern Region:BagboBaomaJaiama BongorKakuaKomboyaTikonkoImperiKpanga KemoBumpehUpper BantaBarriWestern AreaMountainYork RuralWaterlooCentral 1Central 2East 1East 2East 3West 1West 2West 3
2003 and 2011 only Eastern Regions:Kissi KamaLuawaPenguiaYaweiGorama MendeLangramaGbaneKamaraLeiNimiyamaSandorNorthern Region:Safroko LimbaSanda TendarenTambakkaTonko LimbaMongoNeyaSengbeBureh KassehBuya RomendeDibiaSanda MagbolontorSouthern Region:JongNongoba BullomKamajeiKongboraMakpelePejehSoro Gbema Eastern Regions:Kissi TongiKpeje BongreKpeje WestDodoGauraKandu LekpeamaNomoTunkiaWandorMafindorSoaMalemaNomoNiawaNorthern Region:LibeisaygahunMagbaimbaNdorhahunKasunkoNieniWara Wara BafodiaMasimeraKafe SimiraKalansogoiaTanePaki MasonbongBraiamaDiangSouthern region:Bumpe NgawoNiawa LengaBendu ChaSogbiniBagruwaKagboroKowaLower BantaTimdaleGallinas PeriMano SakrimYakemo Kpukumu KrimBadjiaBagboWundeKwamebi Krim- BedumaSittia- YonniYawbeko- TaliaDasseKoriRibbiKpakaSowa

Kolmogorov–Smirnov Tests for Equality of Distributions by Conflict Exposure

Years Distance Exact Prob-value
1989 0.0492 0.121
2003 0.2689 0.000
2011 0.2515 0.000

Gini Coefficient for Household Expenditure by Conflict Exposure

1989 2003 2011
Gini Coefficient:
Overall 0.672*** (0.008) 0.442*** (0.008) 0.3380*** (0.003)
Conflict 0.659*** (0.009) 0.377*** (0.012) 0.302*** (0.005)
Non-conflict 0.677*** (0.011) 0.434*** (0.010) 0.344*** (0.004)
Change −0.017 (0.014) −0.057*** (0.016) −0.042*** (0.006)
Difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989) n/a −0.040** (0.021) n/a
D-i-D2 (2011–1989) n/a n/a −0.025 (0.015)
Observations: 3439 3702 6763
Treatment 1167 1666 4041
Control 2272 2036 2722

Overidentification Tests for the IPW Procedure

Years Conflict Exposure
Test Statistic Prob-value
1989 18.9261 0.1248
2003 29.9765 0.1187
2011 18.5819 0.3528

OLS and Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (using ≥7 years of rebel occupation as the cut-off)

Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure −0.0841 (0.0598) −0.0520 (0.0885) −0.1803*** (0.0716) −0.0822 (0.1480) −0.0120 (0.0854) 0.1180 (0.1214)
Observations 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.1468*** (0.0485) −0.0149 (0.0500) −0.0542 (0.0358) −0.0928*** (0.0318) −0.2208*** (0.0384) −0.4167*** (0.0512)
Observations 3702 3702 3702 3702 3702 370
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.1607*** (0.0377) −0.0974** (0.0264) −0.0934*** (0.0265) −0.1065*** (0.0217) −0.1563*** (0.0285) −0.2119*** (0.0456)
Observations 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763 6763

Pre-war (1989) Covariate Balancing Tests Using Conflict Exposure

Treated Control %Bias t-value p > t Variance Ratio
Age of head 42.86 43.01 −1.20 −0.48 0.63 0.98
Age of head sq 1958.50 1971.20 −1.10 −0.45 0.65 1.07
Head male 0.86 0.87 −2.60 −0.98 0.33 0.99
Head cohabiting 0.93 0.93 −0.90 −0.34 0.73 1.02
Dependency ratio 0.90 0.88 1.90 0.84 0.40 1.13
Urban 0.34 0.36 −3.20 −1.17 0.24 1.00
Head with prim educ 0.57 0.59 −4.40 −1.55 0.12 0.97
Head with higher educ 0.43 0.41 4.50 1.55 0.12 0.97
Household size 5.41 5.44 −0.70 −0.28 0.78 1.01
Household size sq 41.52 41.65 −0.20 −0.09 0.93 1.07
Head with prim educ × urban 0.19 0.19 −1.20 −0.44 0.66 0.98
Head male × urban 0.29 0.31 −2.90 −1.06 0.29 0.99

Sierra Leone Household Expenditure Percentile Ratios by Conflict Exposure

90th–10th 90th–50th 50th–10th
50th 50th 50th
1989:
Overall 10.1315 9.3909 0.7406
Conflict 8.1130 7.2757 0.8373
Non-conflict 9.3891 8.6631 0.7260
Change −1.2761 −1.3874 0.1113
2003:
Overall 2.5614 2.0107 0.5507
Conflict 1.6637 1.1458 0.5178
Non-conflict 3.2174 2.6255 0.5919
Change −1.5537 −1.4797 −0.0741
2011:
Overall 1.7592 1.2537 0.5055
Conflict 1.4517 0.9520 0.4994
Non-conflict 1.8487 1.3408 0.5078
Change −0.3970 −0.3888 −0.0084
Raw difference-in-difference
D-i-D1 (2003–1989) −0.2776 −0.0923 −0.1854
D-i-D2 (2011–1989) 0.8791 0.9986 −0.1197

Quantile Treatment Effects on the Treated using Log Household Expenditure – Conflict Exposure (without Freetown)

OLS 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure 0.2066*** (0.0482) −0.0506 (0.0745) 0.0661 (0.0817) 0.2283 (0.1561) 0.4849*** (0.0631) 0.2627*** (0.0710)
Observations 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.3882*** (0.0512) −0.0872 (0.0594) −0.2025*** (0.0701) −0.3468** (0.0474) −0.5469*** (0.0407) −0.6848*** (0.0796)
Observations 3582 3582 3582 3582 3582 3582
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.2537*** (0.0499) 0.0903** (0.0328) −0.0326 (0.0198) −0.1364*** (0.0167) −0.2692*** (0.0277) −0.3136*** (0.0344)
Observations 6656 6656 6656 6656 6656 6656

The Impact of Conflict on the Gini Coefficient using Inverse Probability Weighting (With 64 Chiefdoms) based on Conflict Exposure

Using 64 Chiefdoms
1989 2003 2011
ATT 0.0031 (0.0147) −0.0950*** (0.0193) −0.0016 (0.0068)
Observations: 3439 2156 3730
Treatment 1167 894 2230
Control 2272 1262 1500

Quantile Treatment Effects using Log Household Expenditure Based on Conflict Exposure with more than Eight Years of Rebel Occupation (with 64 chiefdoms)

Mean 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th
1989:
Conflict exposure 0.2066*** (0.0482) −0.0506 (0.0745) 0.0661 (0.0817) 0.2283 (0.1561) 0.4849*** (0.0631) 0.2627*** (0.0710)
Observations 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439 3439
2003:
Conflict exposure −0.3918*** (0.0606) −0.1013 (0.0675) −0.2222*** (0.0465) −0.2961** (0.0404) −0.4577*** (0.0491) −0.6048*** (0.0532)
Observations 2156 2156 2156 2156 2156 2156
2011:
Conflict exposure −0.1625*** (0.0582) −0.0831** (0.0367) −0.0976*** (0.0290) −0.1405*** (0.0253) −0.2576*** (0.0324) −0.3235*** (0.0452)
Observations 3778 3778 3778 3778 3778 3778
eISSN:
2520-1786
Language:
English
Publication timeframe:
Volume Open
Journal Subjects:
Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics
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