Working beyond the normal retirement age in urban China and urban Russia

Björn Gustafsson; Ludmila Nivorozhkina; Haiyuan Wan

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Working beyond the normal retirement age in urban China and urban Russia

Björn Gustafsson

Ludmila Nivorozhkina

and

Haiyuan Wan

| May 31, 2021

IZA Journal of Development and Migration

Volume 12 (2021): Issue 1 (January 2021)

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Accepted: Apr 19, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0005

Keywords
retirement, older people, employment, China, Russia, labor market

© 2021 Björn Gustafsson et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

(A) Proportion of population aged 65+. (B) Proportion of population aged 15–64.Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database. (https:/data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.1564.TO.ZS)

GDP per capita in China and Russia in constant Purchasing Power Parity (PPP).Note: GDP per capita and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) are expressed in constant 2017 international dollars.Source: World Bank, International Comparison Program database. (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD)

Life expectancy at birth in China and Russia, 1975–2018.Source: World Bank, International Comparison Program database. (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?)

Quintile regression coefficients on age from earnings equations by percentiles.Note: The estimates are from the specifications available in Table 4a.Source: Authors’ estimates from the CHIP and RLMS. CHIP, China Household Income Project; RLMS, Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey

Estimates of employment probabilities for older people in urban China and urban Russia

		China 2002	China 2013	China 2018	Russia 2002	Russia 2013	Russia 2018
Gender (male omitted)	Female	−0.53** (0.230)	−0.77*** (0.123)	−1.03*** (0.091)	−0.56*** (0.158)	−0.11 (0.119)	−0.165 (0.142)

Household structure (all other living arrangements omitted)	Living alone	1.09** (0.451)	−0.30 (0.534)	0.49** (0.217)	0.62** (0.288)	−0.43 (0.273)	−0.15 (0.162)
Household structure (all other living arrangements omitted)	Couples	0.63*** (0.443)	0.89*** (0.101)	0.52*** (0.099)	0.27** (0.105)	0.26** (0.104)	0.29*** (0.139)

Age (55/60–70 omitted)	70–75	−1.46*** (0.301)	−1.98*** (0.204)	−2.13*** (0.176)	−1.78*** (0.217)	−1.88*** (0.143)	−1.28*** (0.218)

Education (lower education omitted)	Upper middle	1.68*** (0.305)	0.141* (0.134)	0.02 (0.095)	0.60** (0.240)	1.27*** (0.311)	0.06 (0.208)
	Polytechnic	2.29*** (0.317)	0.69*** (0.228)	0.47*** (0.141)	0.91*** (0.179)	1.57*** (0.299)	0.42** (0.201)
	Higher	2.49*** (0.326)	0.061*** (0.176)	0.96*** (0.155)	1.54*** (0.301)	1.60*** (0.327)	0.89*** (0.204)

City size (small omitted)	Large	1.26*** (0.167)	0.88*** (0.215)	0.35** (0.167)	0.66*** (0.156)	0.01 (0.117)	1.44*** (0.275)
City size (small omitted)	Middle	0.27 (0.255)	−0.18 (0.191)	0.18** (0.088)	0.71*** (0.248)	−0.05 (0.166)	1.06*** (0.285)

Health status (healthy omitted)	Relatively healthy (not good and not bad)	−0.31 (0.258)	−0.75*** (0.117)	−0.34*** (0.090)	−0.83*** (0.263)	−0.55*** (0.156)	−1.63*** (0.236)
Health status (healthy omitted)	Not healthy	−1.58*** (0.403)	−0.96*** (0.234)	−1.15*** (0.177)	−1.60*** (0.291)	−1.54*** (0.184)	−0.57*** (0.187)

Log of pension		−0.087*** (0.022)	−0.030*** (0.009)	−0.048*** (0.0028)	−0.046*** (0.0028)	−0.032*** (0.0024)	−1.46*** (0.179)

Yearly working hours/100		0.03*** (0.000)	0.03*** (0.000)	0.02*** (0.000)

Rate of migrants in the city		−0.03* (0.015)	−0.01** (0.005)	−0.02*** (0.003)

Constant		−2.50*** (0.358)	−0.85** (0.1779)	−0.06 (0.123)	−0.90* (0.507)	−1.54*** (0.427)	12.308*** (2.109)

Number of observations		2,406	3,340	6,885	1,582	3,174	1,749

Pseudo R²		0.2156	0.1294	0.2352	0.1749	0.1730	0.1178

Parsimonious specification

		China 2002	China 2013	China 2018	Russia 2002	Russia 2013	Russia 2018
Gender (male omitted)	Female	−0.29*** (0.029)	−0.40*** (0.040)	−0.51*** (0.032)	−0.344*** (0.051)	−0.272*** (0.030)	−0.26*** (0.034)

Age (40/45–55/60 omitted)	55/60–70	−1.44*** (0.054)	−1.60*** (0.057)	−1.68*** (0.046)	−0.151*** (0.051)	−0.326*** (0.031)	−0.30*** (0.037)
Age (40/45–55/60 omitted)	70–75	−2.92*** (0.143)	−2.83*** (0.110)	−3.20*** (0.095)	−0.422*** (0.125)	−0.781*** (0.105)	−0.62*** (0.120)

Education (lower education omitted)	Upper middle	0.31*** (0.061)	0.06 (0.065)	0.04 (0.051)	0.085 (0.095)	0.112** (0.049)	0.06 (0.052)
	Polytechnic	0.78*** (0.064)	0.65*** (0.091)	0.45*** (0.077)	0.518*** (0.093)	0.227*** (0.049)	0.12** (0.052)
	Higher	1.14*** (0.082)	0.96*** (0.074)	1.13*** (0.057)	0.248*** (0.093)	0.570*** (0.050)	0.38*** (0.052)

Constant		8.83*** (0.061)	9.77*** (0.065)	9.98*** (0.053)	8.785 (0.163)	9.797 (0.066)	10.23*** (0.086)

R²		0.267	0.341	0.352	0.102	0.178	0.145

Number of observations		4,977	4,310	7,574	1,182	2,542	1,675

Employment rates for older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 (%)

		China 2002	China 2013	China 2018	Russia 2002	Russia 2013	Russia 2018
Gender	Female	5.47	9.48	10.37	15.57	23.93	25.97
Gender	Male	5.47	12.82	15.46	20.37	21.98	24.36

Living arrangements	Living alone	12.70	6.10	13.58	10.62	19.99	22.68
	Couples	6.82	14.84	16.92	16.89	18.57	23.51
	All other living arrangements	4.63	9.38	10.75	19.98	28.21	28.21

Age	55/60–70	6.96	14.41	16.74	27.41	35.48	29.84
Age	70–75	1.39	2.40	2.77	1.97	5.21	7.87

Education	Low	1.92	10.59	12.75	6.34	10.01	17.35
	Upper middle	6.13	11.56	11.98	16.75	25.85	22.75
	Polytechnic	8.58	6.30	7.80	34.80	25.05	25.59
	Higher	13.97	11.47	15.82	20.30	32.71	32.55

City size	Large	14.72	4.93	6.37	19.31	24.31	27.03
	Middle	5.16	9.19	14.95	14.01	23.02	24.38
	Small	4.62	12.71	12.28	11.23	19.00	17.39

Health status	Healthy (good and very good)	7.55	15.65	16.32	23.00	43.65	42.67
	Not good, not bad	5.05	7.34	9.63	32.97	28.43	28.78
	Not healthy (bad and very bad)	1.42	5.15	4.95	5.29	8.97	11.16

Employment rate by quantiles of pensions (from low to high)	First	11.02	19.17	32.36	10.61	29.69	35.46
	Second	3.17	20.47	19.92	20.55	26.49	27.68
	Third	4.09	18.85	13.67	25.49	19.88	26.65
	Fourth	3.65	5.90	3.84	9.17	15.78	11.57

Employment rate among elderly respondents		5.47	10.81	12.42	16.88	23.40	25.51

Extended specification

		China 2002	China 2013	China 2018	Russia 2002	Russia 2013	Russia 2018
Gender (male omitted)	Female	−0.14*** (0.027)	−0.26*** (0.038)	−0.34*** (0.028)	−0.394*** (0.050)	−0.237*** (0.032)	−0.215*** (0.035)

Age (40/45–55/60 omitted)	55/60–70	−0.99*** (0.052)	−1.03*** (0.057)	−0.90*** (0.047)	−0.111** (0.052)	−0.284*** (0.030)	−0.272*** (0.036)
Age (40/45–55/60 omitted)	70–75	−2.33*** (0.132)	−1.90*** (0.109)	−1.11*** (0.180)	−0.404*** (0.130)	−0.713*** (0.095)	−0.547*** (0.115)

Education (lower education omitted)	Upper middle	0.21*** (0.056)	0.02 (0.060)	0.13*** (0.047)	0.093 (0.091)	0.099** (0.047)	0.058 (0.050)
	Polytechnic	0.44*** (0.060)	0.40*** (0.087)	0.48*** (0.069)	0.347*** (0.097)	0.183*** (0.047)	0.093** (0.040)
	Higher	0.68*** (0.073)	0.58*** (0.073)	0.87*** (0.057)	0.164* (0.091)	0.455*** (0.052)	0.368*** (0.062)

Constant		8.25*** (0.059)	8.78*** (0.074)	9.72*** (0.071)	8.860 (0.176)	9.684 (0.080)	10.127*** (0.098)

R²		0.396	0.436	0.305	0.1429	0.2557	0.2255

Observations		4,977	4,310	6,531	1,182	2,542	1,675

Older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 by characteristics

		China 2002	China 2013	China 2018	Russia 2002	Russia 2013	Russia 2018
Gender, %	Female	59.2	60.2	59.8	72.7	72.9	73.5
Gender, %	Male	40.8	39.8	40.2	27.3	27.1	26.5

Living arrangements, %	Living alone	2.6	2.5	3.9	23.3	22.7	27.6
	Couples	28.6	27.4	25.2	29.9	30.6	26.8
	All other living arrangements	68.8	70.0	70.9	46.8	46.7	45.7

Age, %	55/60–70	73.2	69.9	69.1	58.6	60.1	60.3
Age, %	70–75	26.8	30.1	31.0	41.4	39.9	39.8

Education, %	Low	36.9	35.2	31.6	40.2	25.1	14.2
	Upper middle	39.7	46.0	53.1	19.1	19.3	23.7
	Polytechnic	17.8	7.5	4.9	20.1	31.1	33.2
	Higher	5.6	11.3	10.5	20.7	24.6	28.9

City size, %	Large	6.7	15.5	12.1	58.2	57.6	50.5
	Middle	30.4	19.4	32.1	34.0	33.5	33.1
	Small	62.9	65.0	55.9	7.8	9.0	16.4

Health status, %	Healthy (good and very good)	42.3	44.9	50.3	5.3	8.0	6.7
	Not good, not bad	40.2	42.9	37.4	57.4	59.9	60.7
	Not healthy (bad and very bad)	17.5	12.2	12.3	37.4	32.1	32.3

Pensions	Percentage with a pension, %	74.6	87.3	97.3	99.5	96.6	99.0
Pensions	Ln pension (in local currency, and 2013 prices), mean value	9.3	9.7	9.7	8.5	9.3	11.8

Number of elderly respondents		2424	3404	6885	1591	3233	3240

eISSN:: 2520-1786
Language:: English

Publication timeframe:: Volume Open
Journal Subjects:: Business and Economics, Political Economics, Microeconomics, Macroecomics, Economic Policy, Mathematics and Statistics for Economists, Econometrics

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Working beyond the normal retirement age in urban China and urban Russia

Published Online: May 31, 2021

Page range: -

Accepted: Apr 19, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0005

Keywords
retirement, older people, employment, China, Russia, labor market

© 2021 Björn Gustafsson et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Estimates of employment probabilities for older people in urban China and urban Russia

Parsimonious specification

Employment rates for older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 (%)

Extended specification

Older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 by characteristics

Working beyond the normal retirement age in urban China and urban Russia

Published Online: May 31, 2021

Page range: -

Accepted: Apr 19, 2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/izajodm-2021-0005

Keywordsretirement, older people, employment, China, Russia, labor market

© 2021 Björn Gustafsson et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3

Figure 4

Estimates of employment probabilities for older people in urban China and urban Russia

Parsimonious specification

Employment rates for older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 (%)

Extended specification

Older people in urban China and urban Russia in 2002, 2013, and 2018 by characteristics

Keywords
retirement, older people, employment, China, Russia, labor market