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Secondary education and international labor mobility: evidence from the natural experiment in the Philippines


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Figure 1

Changes in the share of overseas workers and educational attainment in the Philippines.
Changes in the share of overseas workers and educational attainment in the Philippines.

Figure 2

Average years of schooling for different birth cohorts.
Average years of schooling for different birth cohorts.

Figure 3

Change in the proportion of overseas workers.Notes: The coefficients (symbols) and confidence intervals (CIs) (bars) indicate the estimates of birth-year dummies from a regression of indicator for working oversea on birth-year dummies, as well as age fixed effects where reference cohort is 1959 cohort. The curves (thick lines) are quadratic polynomials that are fit separately (on the coefficient estimates) on each side of the cutoff. The sample includes those in the labor force who are ≥21 years of age in the 1995–2014 Labor Force Surveys.Source: Data are from the 1995–2014 LFS.
Change in the proportion of overseas workers.Notes: The coefficients (symbols) and confidence intervals (CIs) (bars) indicate the estimates of birth-year dummies from a regression of indicator for working oversea on birth-year dummies, as well as age fixed effects where reference cohort is 1959 cohort. The curves (thick lines) are quadratic polynomials that are fit separately (on the coefficient estimates) on each side of the cutoff. The sample includes those in the labor force who are ≥21 years of age in the 1995–2014 Labor Force Surveys.Source: Data are from the 1995–2014 LFS.

Figure 4

Diagnostics.
Diagnostics.

Robustness test: different kernel weights

MaleFemaleOverallMaleFemaleOverall
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Panel A (main specification)First stageFuzzy RDD
Triangular kernel0.073***0.109***0.102***–0.032***–0.007–0.028**
–0.017–0.02–0.016(0.016)(0.016)(0.011)
Optimal bandwidth Panel B667979
Rectangular kernel0.101***0.093***0.090***–0.026*0.0100.007
(0.020)(0.022)(0.011)(0.015)(0.018)(0.008)
Optimal bandwidth654654
Panel C
Epanechnikov kernel0.089***0.094***0.081***–0.030*0.012–0.009
(0.016)(0.022)(0.012)(0.016)(0.015)(0.011)
Optimal bandwidth855855

Number of land-based overseas Filipino workers by occupation, new hires in 2014

OccupationN
Household service workers183,101
Nursing professionals19,815
Waiters, bartenders, and related workers13,843
Caregivers and caretakers12,075
Charworkers, cleaners, and related workers11,894
Laborers/helpers general11,515
Wiremen and electrical workers8,226
Plumbers and pipe fitters7,657
Welders and flame-cutters7,282
Cooks and related workers5,707

The effect of free secondary education on completion of primary school, high school, and college

MenWomen
Primary schoolLower high schoolUpper high schoolCollegePrimary schoolLower high schoolUpper high schoolCollege
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
“1” if born in 1976 or later0.006***0.006***0.006***0.0020.005***0.006*0.010***0.016***
–0.001–0.002–0.002–0.002–0.002–0.004–0.002–0.003
Survey year fixed effectsYesYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Bandwidth55785576
Observation252,952252,952252,952376,997207,786249,434292,480292,480

OLS and fuzzy RDD estimates of the effects of schooling on working overseas

MenWomenOverall
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
OLSFuzzy RDDOLSFuzzy RDDOLSFuzzy RDD
Years of schooling0.009***–0.032***0.006***–0.0070.009***–0.028**
(0.000)(0.016)(0.000)(0.016)(0.000)(0.011)
Optimal bandwidth997799
Effective observations351,222351,222168,696168,696565,870565,870

First stage: the effect of free secondary education on schooling

MenWomenOverall
(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)
“1” if born in 1976 or later0.070***0.073***–0.0110.107***0.109***0.0380.111***0.102***0.019
(0.015)(0.017)(0.038)(0.021)(0.020)(0.044)(0.014)(0.016)(0.041)
Survey year fixed effectsNoYesYesNoYesYesNoYesYes
Optimal bandwidth567567478
Cutoff year197619761971197619761971197619761971
Effective observations210,612252,952370,678249,434292,480371,676207,786589,047742,354