SEG | Sc | Sex/Scenario | DD (n) | DD (%) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LC | IHD | Stroke | COPD | All four diseases | LC | IHD | Stroke | COPD | All four diseases | |||
A | 1 | Complete cessation | 15,711 | 30,736 | 5,313 | 4,303 | 56,062 | 14.85 | 53.81 | 49.02 | 18.65 | 28.48 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 12,721 | 25,390 | 4,519 | 3,676 | 46,305 | 12.02 | 44.45 | 41.70 | 15.93 | 23.53 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 4,904 | 10,498 | 1,979 | 1,625 | 19,007 | 4.64 | 18.38 | 18.26 | 7.04 | 9.66 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 5,197 | 11,221 | 2,099 | 1,701 | 20,218 | 4.91 | 19.64 | 19.37 | 7.37 | 10.27 | |
B | 1 | Complete cessation | 31,383 | 56,530 | 10,692 | 9,710 | 108,315 | 12.41 | 44.27 | 46.20 | 15.94 | 23.31 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 25,538 | 46,790 | 9,104 | 8,280 | 89,713 | 10.10 | 36.64 | 39.34 | 13.60 | 19.31 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 10,059 | 19,516 | 4,077 | 3,605 | 37,256 | 3.98 | 15.28 | 17.62 | 5.92 | 8.02 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 10,549 | 20,353 | 4,249 | 3,766 | 38,918 | 4.17 | 15.94 | 18.36 | 6.18 | 8.38 | |
A+B | 1 | Complete cessation | 47,094 | 87,266 | 16,005 | 14,013 | 164,377 | 13.13 | 47.22 | 47.10 | 16.69 | 24.85 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 38,259 | 72,180 | 13,623 | 11,956 | 136,018 | 10.67 | 39.05 | 40.09 | 14.24 | 20.56 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 14,963 | 30,014 | 6,056 | 5,230 | 56,263 | 4.17 | 16.24 | 17.82 | 6.23 | 8.51 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 15,746 | 31,574 | 6,348 | 5,467 | 59,136 | 4.39 | 17.08 | 18.68 | 6.51 | 8.94 | |
A | 1 | Complete cessation | 6,703 | 5,841 | 2,592 | 1,527 | 16,663 | 23.66 | 55.38 | 51.42 | 24.18 | 33.17 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 5,395 | 4,867 | 2,210 | 1,303 | 13,776 | 19.04 | 46.15 | 43.85 | 20.63 | 27.42 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 1,834 | 1,799 | 864 | 506 | 5,003 | 6.47 | 17.05 | 17.15 | 8.01 | 9.96 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 1,997 | 1,958 | 934 | 541 | 5,430 | 7.05 | 18.56 | 18.52 | 8.56 | 10.81 | |
B | 1 | Complete cessation | 15,98 | 13,209 | 5,264 | 4,916 | 39,369 | 20.66 | 45.87 | 51.20 | 23.60 | 28.68 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 12,929 | 11,056 | 4,467 | 4,178 | 32,630 | 16.71 | 38.39 | 43.45 | 20.06 | 23.78 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 4,898 | 4,493 | 1,934 | 1,804 | 13,129 | 6.33 | 15.60 | 18.81 | 8.66 | 9.57 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 5,146 | 4,682 | 2,028 | 1,878 | 13,734 | 6.65 | 16.26 | 19.73 | 9.02 | 10.01 | |
A+B | 1 | Complete cessation | 22,683 | 19,050 | 7,856 | 6,443 | 56,032 | 21.46 | 48.42 | 51.27 | 23.73 | 29.88 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 18,324 | 15,923 | 6,677 | 5,481 | 46,406 | 17.34 | 40.47 | 43.58 | 20.19 | 24.75 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 6,732 | 6,292 | 2,798 | 2,310 | 18,132 | 6.37 | 15.99 | 18.26 | 8.51 | 9.67 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 7,143 | 6,640 | 2,962 | 2,419 | 19,164 | 6.76 | 16.88 | 19.33 | 8.91 | 10.22 |
Sex | Age (years) | SEG = A Distribution of quit time (years) |
SEG = B Distribution of quit time (years) |
||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<1 | 1–2 | 3–5 | 6–10 | 11–20 | 21+ | <1 | 1–2 | 3–5 | 6–10 | 11–20 | 21+ | ||
Men | 10–14 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15–19 | 69.4 | 30.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69.4 | 30.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
20–24 | 38.7 | 29.8 | 31.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51.1 | 41.7 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
25–29 | 10.7 | 33.2 | 47.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0 | 41.8 | 23.3 | 34.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
30–34 | 13.7 | 49.1 | 21.2 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 0 | 19.5 | 36.7 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 22.0 | 0 | |
35–39 | 12.2 | 16.2 | 17.8 | 26.5 | 23.7 | 3.5 | 29.4 | 22.3 | 12.6 | 22.2 | 13.6 | 0 | |
40–44 | 10.7 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 16.5 | 40.5 | 7.3 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 22.7 | 26.3 | 4.4 | |
45–49 | 15.7 | 10.7 | 14.3 | 14.5 | 39.1 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 18.7 | 7.0 | 17.0 | 30.4 | 12.7 | |
50–54 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 14.5 | 41.8 | 18.9 | 9.1 | 13.2 | 23.9 | 13.8 | 22.9 | 17.2 | |
55–59 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 13.0 | 25.2 | 49.0 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 11.4 | 17.8 | 27.2 | 28.1 | |
60–64 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 33.6 | 39.6 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 26.9 | 41.7 | |
65–69 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 23.4 | 56.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 16.6 | 29.2 | 40.6 | |
70–74 | 0 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 24.6 | 59.0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 22.7 | 48.6 | |
75–79 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 10.4 | 19.2 | 67.1 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 11.4 | 25.0 | 57.9 | |
Women | 10–14 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99.9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
15–19 | 60.2 | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60.2 | 39.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
20–24 | 44.9 | 35.3 | 18.4 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | 32.0 | 28.4 | 37.6 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | |
25–29 | 46.3 | 32.0 | 13.9 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 0 | 20.0 | 23.6 | 33.9 | 22.6 | 0 | 0 | |
30–34 | 9.8 | 26.3 | 30.6 | 28.3 | 5.0 | 0 | 29.0 | 14.9 | 19.1 | 26.0 | 11.2 | 0 | |
35–39 | 11.2 | 23.0 | 19.6 | 18.2 | 28.0 | 0 | 10.2 | 28.9 | 11.9 | 29.5 | 19.5 | 0 | |
40–44 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 36.0 | 11.1 | 25.6 | 15.1 | 6.4 | 13.3 | 14.8 | 24.7 | |
45–49 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 12.7 | 41.1 | 19.1 | 8.5 | 22.1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 37.3 | 11.0 | |
50–54 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 34.8 | 25.2 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 24.8 | 32.4 | 14.5 | |
55–59 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 53.8 | 25.8 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 36.1 | 17.5 | |
60–64 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 17.6 | 15.1 | 47.0 | 12.3 | 0.9 | 10.3 | 17.1 | 32.3 | 27.1 | |
65–69 | 0.8 | 27.2 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 14.1 | 45.5 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 21.1 | 33.7 | |
70–74 | 0 | 15.6 | 0 | 0.7 | 35.3 | 48.3 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 22.5 | 43.8 | |
75–79 | 0 | 12.8 | 0 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 60.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 23.6 | 18.8 | 28.2 | 19.9 |
Age (years) | Transitions from A to B | Transitions from B to A | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Men | Women | Men | Women | |
10–14 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0522 | 0.0371 |
15–19 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0164 | 0.0086 |
20–24 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0719 | 0.0400 |
25–29 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0533 | 0.0484 |
30–34 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0559 | 0.0486 |
35–39 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0586 | 0.0527 |
40–44 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0615 | 0.0574 |
45–49 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0415 | 0.0352 |
50–54 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0371 | 0.0316 |
55–59 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.0667 | 0.0327 |
60–64 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.0541 | 0.0283 |
65–69 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.0505 | 0.0294 |
70–74 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.0379 | 0.0114 |
75–79 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.0379 | 0.0114 |
Sex | Age (years) | Population (hundreds) | % in SEG A | % in SEG B | % Current smokers | % Former smokers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEG = A | SEG = B | SEG = A | SEG = B | |||||
Men | 10–14 | 23,112 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 6.12 | 6.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
15–19 | 21,921 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 26.62 | 26.62 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
20–24 | 24,908 | 41.42 | 58.58 | 48.85 | 61.65 | 6.41 | 18.75 | |
25–29 | 35,543 | 51.15 | 48.85 | 46.66 | 62.13 | 10.20 | 15.07 | |
30–34 | 37,604 | 59.96 | 40.04 | 44.92 | 62.39 | 14.82 | 13.05 | |
35–39 | 34,006 | 55.82 | 44.18 | 43.64 | 62.15 | 20.03 | 12.67 | |
40–44 | 29,154 | 56.12 | 43.88 | 42.96 | 62.47 | 26.44 | 13.43 | |
45–49 | 25,049 | 51.81 | 48.19 | 40.23 | 57.05 | 32.25 | 21.05 | |
50–54 | 27,482 | 45.32 | 54.68 | 35.47 | 44.43 | 38.60 | 31.52 | |
55–59 | 29,221 | 40.73 | 59.27 | 26.90 | 30.12 | 45.10 | 39.24 | |
60–64 | 20,582 | 36.66 | 63.34 | 18.65 | 22.09 | 49.78 | 42.61 | |
65–69 | 18,087 | 31.95 | 68.05 | 16.81 | 19.45 | 52.09 | 45.88 | |
70–74 | 12,280 | 29.04 | 70.96 | 13.75 | 14.92 | 52.90 | 49.50 | |
75–79 | 5,812 | 28.72 | 71.28 | 9.90 | 9.93 | 52.44 | 53.37 | |
10–79 | 344,761 | 47.80 | 52.20 | 35.48 | 42.17 | 23.21 | 23.96 | |
Population |
10–79 | 344,761 | 164,798 | 179,763 | 58,463 | 75,896 | 38,258 | 43,122 |
Mean age | 10–79 | 40.92 | 38.91 | 42.76 | 37.82 | 39.52 | 49.93 | 53.82 |
Women | 10–14 | 21,928 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 5.39 | 5.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
15–19 | 20,788 | 50.00 | 50.00 | 19.73 | 19.73 | 0.16 | 0.16 | |
20–24 | 23,618 | 48.57 | 51.43 | 27.85 | 51.33 | 22.96 | 1.96 | |
25–29 | 33,241 | 57.39 | 42.61 | 30.24 | 51.30 | 21.54 | 8.05 | |
30–34 | 34,681 | 61.41 | 38.59 | 32.03 | 51.23 | 21.85 | 12.69 | |
35–39 | 31,271 | 63.68 | 36.32 | 33.05 | 50.82 | 23.53 | 15.94 | |
40–44 | 27,580 | 60.62 | 39.38 | 33.87 | 51.95 | 28.09 | 17.78 | |
45–49 | 24,142 | 50.59 | 49.41 | 31.01 | 41.55 | 25.84 | 18.09 | |
50–54 | 26,958 | 40.67 | 59.33 | 25.69 | 28.72 | 20.30 | 14.89 | |
55–59 | 29,511 | 39.71 | 60.29 | 19.18 | 18.52 | 17.03 | 9.49 | |
60–64 | 21,703 | 29.16 | 70.84 | 15.75 | 10.96 | 19.77 | 6.50 | |
65–69 | 22,609 | 18.91 | 80.09 | 14.54 | 6.29 | 23.12 | 8.21 | |
70–74 | 21,886 | 16.77 | 83.23 | 12.46 | 3.33 | 21.46 | 10.04 | |
75–79 | 12,226 | 17.95 | 82.05 | 10.52 | 2.26 | 16.35 | 12.74 | |
10–79 | 352,142 | 45.78 | 54.22 | 25.95 | 26.67 | 19.58 | 9.78 | |
Population |
10–79 | 352,142 | 161,201 | 190,941 | 41,829 | 50,930 | 31,559 | 18,674 |
Mean age | 10–79 | 43.25 | 38.47 | 47.29 | 38.10 | 38.74 | 41.52 | 51.54 |
SEG A | SEG B | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Period (years) | Age (years) | Initiation (PNC) | Quitting (PCF) | Re-initiation (PFC) | Initiation (PNC) | Quitting (PCF) | Re-initiation (PFC) | ||||||
Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | ||
1–5 | 10–14 | 4,296 | 3,462 | 2,446 | 1,454 | 1,166 | 695 | 4,296 | 3,462 | 2,446 | 1,454 | 1,166 | 695 |
15–19 | 5,578 | 5,948 | 4,293 | 18,310 | 2,035 | 8,325 | 13,030 | 9,824 | 4,406 | 5,752 | 2,088 | 2,714 | |
20–24 | 2,560 | 2,712 | 4,631 | 2,808 | 2,193 | 1,337 | 5,277 | 2,470 | 964 | 3,630 | 461 | 1,724 | |
25–29 | 173 | 1,301 | 3,411 | 2,390 | 1,621 | 1,139 | 2,432 | 1,663 | 1,061 | 2,619 | 508 | 1,247 | |
30–34 | 516 | 638 | 3,695 | 2,532 | 1,755 | 1,207 | 778 | 723 | 1,251 | 1,770 | 599 | 845 | |
35–39 | 0 | 0 | 4,007 | 2,891 | 1,901 | 1,376 | 0 | 0 | 1,474 | 981 | 705 | 470 | |
40–44 | 0 | 0 | 3,569 | 2,089 | 1,696 | 997 | 0 | 0 | 2,506 | 1,935 | 595 | 319 | |
45–49 | 0 | 0 | 4,041 | 2,396 | 1,434 | 855 | 0 | 0 | 3,506 | 1,903 | 414 | 181 | |
50–54 | 0 | 0 | 5,040 | 3,463 | 1,184 | 504 | 0 | 0 | 3,733 | 1,789 | 220 | 128 | |
55–59 | 0 | 0 | 4,487 | 6,368 | 527 | 404 | 0 | 0 | 2,756 | 3,032 | 163 | 108 | |
60–64 | 0 | 0 | 2,153 | 6,226 | 256 | 305 | 0 | 0 | 2,859 | 7,788 | 84 | 70 | |
65–69 | 0 | 0 | 2,252 | 3,685 | 134 | 195 | 0 | 0 | 4,057 | 10,198 | 60 | 46 | |
70–74 | 0 | 0 | 2,673 | 3,020 | 79 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 5,292 | 14,584 | 39 | 32 | |
75–79 | 0 | 0 | 2,673 | 3,020 | 79 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 5,292 | 14,584 | 39 | 32 | |
6–10 | 10–14 | 3,654 | 2,986 | 2,063 | 2,210 | 985 | 1,054 | 3,654 | 2,986 | 2,063 | 2,210 | 985 | 1,054 |
15–19 | 4,816 | 4,256 | 7,804 | 14,719 | 3,660 | 6,766 | 9,496 | 10,212 | 3,177 | 9,730 | 1,511 | 4,537 | |
20–24 | 978 | 1,993 | 4,476 | 3,470 | 2,120 | 1,649 | 3,359 | 2,024 | 1,323 | 3,327 | 633 | 1,582 | |
25–29 | 320 | 967 | 4,047 | 3,044 | 1,920 | 1,448 | 1,179 | 1,197 | 1,238 | 2,250 | 592 | 1,073 | |
30–34 | 461 | 477 | 4,158 | 3,100 | 1,972 | 1,475 | 760 | 380 | 1,640 | 1,462 | 784 | 699 | |
35–39 | 0 | 0 | 4,044 | 3,056 | 1,919 | 1,454 | 0 | 0 | 1,954 | 937 | 933 | 449 | |
40–44 | 0 | 0 | 3,146 | 2,798 | 1,496 | 1,201 | 0 | 0 | 2,219 | 1,468 | 791 | 354 | |
45–49 | 0 | 0 | 3,751 | 3,440 | 1,333 | 1,059 | 0 | 0 | 2,907 | 1,588 | 684 | 189 | |
50–54 | 0 | 0 | 4,358 | 4,121 | 1,027 | 786 | 0 | 0 | 3,276 | 1,900 | 430 | 113 | |
55–59 | 0 | 0 | 3,865 | 5,097 | 455 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 2,947 | 2,848 | 316 | 84 | |
60–64 | 0 | 0 | 2,627 | 4,689 | 311 | 462 | 0 | 0 | 2,853 | 4,239 | 153 | 62 | |
65–69 | 0 | 0 | 2,680 | 3,966 | 159 | 364 | 0 | 0 | 3,824 | 4,840 | 101 | 35 | |
70–74 | 0 | 0 | 3,144 | 4,767 | 93 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 4,687 | 5,286 | 61 | 22 | |
75–79 | 0 | 0 | 3,144 | 4,767 | 93 | 205 | 0 | 0 | 4,687 | 5,286 | 61 | 22 | |
11+ | 10–14 | 2,883 | 2,072 | 1,840 | 3,593 | 879 | 1,706 | 2,883 | 2,072 | 1,840 | 3,593 | 879 | 1,706 |
15–19 | 4,438 | 3,679 | 14,553 | 12,981 | 6,681 | 5,999 | 6,837 | 11,864 | 1,340 | 17,133 | 640 | 7,807 | |
20–24 | 374 | 1,186 | 5,489 | 3,933 | 2,593 | 1,865 | 1,323 | 1,495 | 1,532 | 2,845 | 732 | 1,355 | |
25–29 | 463 | 573 | 5,296 | 3,823 | 2,503 | 1,815 | 1,852 | 678 | 2,093 | 1,715 | 998 | 819 | |
30–34 | 409 | 283 | 5,029 | 3,931 | 2,379 | 1,866 | 1,718 | 190 | 2,458 | 1,141 | 1,171 | 546 | |
35–39 | 0 | 0 | 4,385 | 3,091 | 2,078 | 1,470 | 0 | 0 | 2,727 | 874 | 1,299 | 419 | |
40–44 | 0 | 0 | 2,750 | 3,681 | 1,309 | 1,146 | 0 | 0 | 1,856 | 1,166 | 886 | 301 | |
45–49 | 0 | 0 | 3,376 | 5,215 | 1,085 | 694 | 0 | 0 | 2,293 | 1,958 | 819 | 233 | |
50–54 | 0 | 0 | 3,432 | 4,989 | 703 | 499 | 0 | 0 | 3,219 | 2,218 | 646 | 132 | |
55–59 | 0 | 0 | 3,139 | 4,394 | 318 | 436 | 0 | 0 | 3,077 | 2,882 | 305 | 85 | |
60–64 | 0 | 0 | 2,893 | 3,412 | 278 | 340 | 0 | 0 | 3,259 | 2,316 | 160 | 69 | |
65–69 | 0 | 0 | 3,015 | 4,064 | 142 | 203 | 0 | 0 | 3,821 | 2,463 | 94 | 36 | |
70–74 | 0 | 0 | 3,571 | 7,872 | 83 | 148 | 0 | 0 | 4,223 | 2,245 | 52 | 33 | |
75–79 | 0 | 0 | 3,571 | 7,872 | 79 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 4,223 | 2,245 | 39 | 32 |
SEG | Sc | Scenario | Men | Women | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LC | IHD | Stroke | COPD | All four diseases | LC | IHD | Stroke | COPD | All four diseases | |||
A | 1 | Complete cessation | 194 | 563 | 87 | 36 | 880 | 116 | 114 | 55 | 19 | 305 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 153 | 457 | 74 | 30 | 714 | 92 | 94 | 47 | 16 | 250 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 55 | 183 | 31 | 12 | 281 | 30 | 34 | 18 | 62 | 88 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 59 | 198 | 33 | 13 | 303 | 33 | 38 | 19 | 66 | 97 | |
B | 1 | Complete cessation | 312 | 855 | 142 | 66 | 1,374 | 175 | 175 | 77 | 37 | 465 |
3 | Complete switch to RRPs (50% HnBs, 50% ECigs) | 247 | 689 | 119 | 56 | 1,112 | 138 | 143 | 65 | 32 | 378 | |
6 | Conversion Scenario | 92 | 277 | 51 | 24 | 444 | 48 | 55 | 26 | 13 | 143 | |
7 | Full Conversion Scenario | 96 | 290 | 53 | 25 | 464 | 51 | 58 | 28 | 14 | 151 |