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<p>In this study, the impact of the crude oil price on economic growth is investigated in seven middle-income oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), namely Botswana, Kenya, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia. The estimation is based on both linear and non-linear panel autoregressive distributive lag (panel ARDL) models. The real oil price is decomposed into negative oil price shock and positive oil price shock in order to examine the non-linear impact of oil price on economic growth. Using an annual dataset from 1990 to 2018, it was found that in the symmetric model the oil price has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. The short-run estimates, however, show that the oil price has no significant impact on economic growth. The overall results from the asymmetric model also show that there is a non-linear relationship between oil price and economic growth in the studied countries.</p>
</abstract>

In this study, the impact of the crude oil price on economic growth is investigated in seven middle-income oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), namely Botswana, Kenya, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia. The estimation is based on both linear and non-linear panel autoregressive distributive lag (panel ARDL) models. The real oil price is decomposed into negative oil price shock and positive oil price shock in order to examine the non-linear impact of oil price on economic growth. Using an annual dataset from 1990 to 2018, it was found that in the symmetric model the oil price has a positive and significant impact on economic growth in the long run. The short-run estimates, however, show that the oil price has no significant impact on economic growth. The overall results from the asymmetric model also show that there is a non-linear relationship between oil price and economic growth in the studied countries.

The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach

Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

In this study, the impact of the crude oil price on economic growth is investigated in seven middle-income oil-importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA),...

The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach

Published Online: Oct 13, 2022

Page range: 29 - 48

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/auseb-2022-0003

Keywords
oil price, economic growth, middle-income countries, sub-Saharan Africa, panel asymmetric effects

© 2022 Motunrayo O. Akinsola, et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach

Published Online: Oct 13, 2022

Page range: 29 - 48

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/auseb-2022-0003

Keywordsoil price, economic growth, middle-income countries, sub-Saharan Africa, panel asymmetric effects

© 2022 Motunrayo O. Akinsola, et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Keywords
oil price, economic growth, middle-income countries, sub-Saharan Africa, panel asymmetric effects