Assessment of tax-related risks in corporate betting agreements based on vector autoregressive model

This paper is based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the model optimization is completed by determining the lag order to eliminate the autocorrelation in the error term through model comparison. The variables in the tax-related risk of the betting agreement are formed into a vector form, the parameters are estimated by least squares or maximum likelihood estimation, and the interrelationship of the variables is analyzed by impulse response function. The vector autoregressive model was used to evaluate the tax-related risk of the betting agreement of Company M, and 12 factors were obtained. Among them, the factors that have more than 80% influence on tax-related risk are the lack of research on the betting agreement and the backwardness of the theoretical aspects of the handling of the betting agreement, with the influence of 87.89% and 84.98%, respectively. Therefore, the vector autoregressive model can effectively assess the tax-related risks in corporate betting agreements and provide a reference for companies diversifying into restructuring and mergers.