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Multiple Effects Analysis of Hangzhou Issuing Digital Consumer Coupons Based on Simultaneous Equations of CDM Model

Published Online: 15 Jul 2022
Volume & Issue: AHEAD OF PRINT
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Received: 19 Apr 2022
Accepted: 14 Jun 2022
Journal Details
License
Format
Journal
eISSN
2444-8656
First Published
01 Jan 2016
Publication timeframe
2 times per year
Languages
English
Introduction

After the new crown epidemic outbreak in 2020, the market economy and social consumption level will inevitably be hit to a certain extent. The Hangzhou Municipal Government has formulated and implemented a series of policies to promote consumption and stimulate economic recovery to break this predicament. Among them, the “Consumption Vouchers” plan” is a means of focus. The issuing entity can divide consumer coupons into two categories: commercial and policy coupons. The meaning of retail coupons refers to the sales strategies issued by enterprises that are beneficial to their development, while relevant government agencies dominate the latter–a means of consumer coupons issued to solve and stimulate new trends in the economic market. According to the specific issuance situation, the policy coupons can be divided into two categories. According to relevant regulations, the number of consumer coupons within the specification will be issued to replace a small part of personal income. The second is to directly give consumer vouchers with a transfer payment nature to the market.

This article uses a simplified intertemporal consumption model to study the impact and role of the process of stimulating residents' consumption decisions utilizing consumer coupons. Before constructing the consumption model, it is assumed that there is a precondition that the consumer mainly needs to make decisions in two periods, namely current and future consumption. The former is carried out directly through the current consumer market, while the achievement of future consumption requires the participation of savings. Consumption vouchers are only used in conjunction with current consumption, regardless of the realization cost. The government has to pay an additional realization cost [2]. Therefore, consumption vouchers may have a particular impact on the relative prices of the consumption parts of the two subjects in the model. Therefore, consumer coupons will specifically affect consumers' current and future consumption choices.

Basic Model

If the consumption planning of the real economy is carried out, it needs to be analyzed in two stages [3]. The current consumption is Ct, and the price is Pt. The next consumption period is Ct+1, and the price is Pt+1. For individual consumers, their current reserves are the basis for consumption activities in the next period; that is to say, the existing reserves of consumers are related to the consumption of the next period as follows: (1+r)St=Pt+1Ct+1 \left( {1 + r} \right){S_t} = {P_{t + 1}}{C_{t + 1}} is the current nominal saving St. It's the rate of r. If the consumer's existing level of disposable income is low Yt. Then it's budget 88 limit is: PtCt+St=Yt {P_t}{C_t} + {S_t} = {Y_t}

We bring (1) into (2) and get: PtCt+Pt+1Ct+11+r=Yt {P_t}{C_t} + {P_{t + 1}}{{{C_{t + 1}}} \over {1 + r}} = {Y_t}

To ensure the establishment of this budget equation, a complete and efficient monetary and financial economy is required to participate St, which provides the purchase and conversion of income and savings by consumers Ct+1. The next stage of sustainability can be successfully achieved. This process is inseparable from the participation of currency payment [4], and the source of all is economic income Ct. Because money has absolute liquidity St, it can break the boundaries of the market, which ensures that individual consumers use cash to meet current consumption and purchase savings as the basis for subsequent consumption.

Considering the income disposition of individual consumers, disposable income cannot be fully monetized due to the nature of consumption activities. In other words, for individual consumers, a part of their income in addition to money exists as a proof of claim for purchasing goods or services. For this reason, coupons can play the same role as monetary value, budget, etc. The formula has changed [5]. However, the scope of application of consumer coupons is not universal Ct+1. If a policy does not allow complete transferability, it is called prescriptive.

This article examines the flexibility of coupon programs. Take advantage of a consumer coupon market that exists independently of the outside world. Under the means of consumer coupons, consumers can use the market to carry out cash payment activities. However, because the market liquidity of consumer coupons is relatively weak compared to currency, if you want to convert them into consumption later, you need to sell and resell consumer coupons in the secondary market and convert them into cash first. The value of the difference in the loss is regarded as the additional cost of enhancing market liquidity. Assuming the interest rate is zero[6], the budget line becomes: PtCt+Pt+1Ct+1=Yt {P_t}{C_t} + {P_{t + 1}}{C_{t + 1}} = {Y_t}

Suppose the number of coupons X is used to replace part of the disposable income. Suppose the total amount of consumer coupons exceeds the current consumption plan of the consumer. In that case, consumers can sell the excess at a discount in the secondary market and convert them into savings products. This process can be regarded as a price adjustment for the subsequent consumption Pt+1. Consider income as the monetary income of individual consumers due to coupon placement and use in the market [7]. At this time, for individual consumers U = U(Ct, Ct+1), the utility function of their consumption has the maximum value, showing a concave shape and a good shape (C*(t),C*(t + 1)). The optimal solution can be obtained when certain conditions are met: U2U1=Pt+1Pt {{{U_2}} \over {{U_1}}} = {{{P_{t + 1}}} \over {{P_t}}}

It is defined U1, U2 as the marginal utility of current and next period consumption. The above formula shows that if personal utility is maximized, the price ratio of each period consumption is equal to the marginal utility of intertemporal consumption (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^*,C_{t + 1}^*} \right) . The consumer's optimal consumption in each period should be selected at the tangent point between the indifference U(Ct,Ct+1)=U¯ U\left( {{C_t},{C_{t + 1}}} \right) = \bar U curve and the preselected constraint line.

If there is a situation where the proportion of saving propensity is too large, and consumption opinions are insufficient at this time, it means that consumers are more inclined to consume activities in the next period. For this situation, two quantitative features can be used to describe the utility function:

If the compensatory demand Cth C_t^h in the current period will have a more significant impact on the price level of the next period dCthdPt+1 {{dC_t^h} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} . In other words, the value is too large [8]. This suggests that costs need Ct to be adjusted to make up for their more significant contribution to the utility Ct+1. In essence, to stabilize the market economy and the level of public utilities in society, it compensates for changes caused by electricity prices Ct+1...

The consumption and income growth curve in the next period is concave Ct+1. When a “liquidity trap” occurs, we need to consider changes dCt+1dY {{d{C_{t + 1}}} \over {dY}} in its expansion or reduction. Residents have fixed dCtdY {{d{C_t}} \over {dY}} , and regular consumption in their daily life dCtdY=0 {{d{C_t}} \over {dY}} = 0 , and they also need to increase their money income. The increased gain of residents is held in currency to enhance household reserve strength. In the current situation, consumption is not affected by changes in economic returns.

Economic effects of consumer vouchers
The case where a portion of the income consists of consumption coupons

Two main factors cause the price level to fluctuate. The first is the “substitution effect” replaced by fixed-price items. The second is decreased real income due to rising prices [9]. The additional cost of cashing out consumer vouchers will increase the price of consumers' savings assets, which will reduce the market consumer price and reduce the actual income of participants. In this new environment, the optimal consumption saving mode needs to consider the contrasting effects of the above two benefits. CDM decomposition of it: dCtdPt+1=dCthdPt+1Ct+1dCtdY {{d{C_t}} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} = {{dC_t^h} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} - {C_{t + 1}}{{d{C_t}} \over {dY}}

Whether high or low, the overall effect dCthdPt+1 {{dC_t^h} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} presented should be positive dCtdY {{d{C_t}} \over {dY}} . In addition, the characteristics of this function show that the higher the income level of consumers, the stronger the corresponding investment ability and savings elasticity, and the lower the consumption elasticity[10]. This means that when the temperature is higher Ct+1, the temperature dCtdY {{d{C_t}} \over {dY}} is lower. Therefore, the improvement of earning power Ct+1 does not fundamentally impact the positive development of the total effect. Faced with the liquidity trap problem dCtdY=0 {{d{C_t}} \over {dY}} = 0 , when: dCtdPt+1=dCthdPt+1>0 {{d{C_t}} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} = {{dC_t^h} \over {d{P_{t + 1}}}} > 0

Considering the liquidity trap problem, it is assumed that the consumption level of consumers is stable. The stimulus effect of coupons is exploited most for this situation when all the extra money is spent on consumption in the next period. The price fluctuations in the consumer market in the next period will no longer affect the current income level.

The implementation of the consumption coupon stimulus plan will make the current consumption larger than the actual value Ct*>Ct* C_t^{*'} > C_t^* : it means that when there is an extreme saving tendency if the consumption coupons are used to deduct part of the consumers' income while ensuring that the number of consumption coupons is sufficient, the consumption coupons can play a role. The substitution effect acts to stimulate the current consumption behavior. But at the same time, it will also have a particular impact on the utility level of consumers, which has a weakening effect. In other words, although the consumer voucher program can stimulate the current consumption activities immediately, it will weaken society's overall well-being at the same time.

If the consumption potential is considerable Ct* C_t^{*''} , and the choice is taken as the current consumption, it will exist Ct*<Ct* C_t^{*''} < C_t^* . At this point, the consumer coupon program dampens recent spending activity. Therefore, if the consumer already has a sufficient consumption plan at this time, the issuance of consumption coupons will cause a savings penalty, which will weaken the current consumption to the maximum extent. However, it is not very suitable for the situation where residents have a strong propensity to save.

Comparison of consumption vouchers and currency under transfer payment

The second case of the voucher policy is that the government has developed a new means of transfer payment to issue vouchers to groups of consumers. We discussed the types of consumer coupons and the issuance method of currency and obtained a reasonable manner with the most apparent stimulation [11]. the income of Yt is (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^*,C_{t + 1}^*} \right) , then the transfer payment to the consumer is a part of the currency ΔY. At this time, the model reaches a new monetary gain Yt=ΔY+Tt Y_t^\prime = \Delta Y + {T_t} , and the system generates a unique budget constraint AB, and the new optimal intertemporal consumption bundle is (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^{*'''},C_{t + 1}^{*'''}} \right) .

The government transfers the payment to the consumer voucher X′. The quantity standard issued is that the quantity of the current consumer goods purchased with X′ is equal to the amount of the everyday consumer goods purchased with ΔY. At this time, the amounts of consumer goods that X′ and ΔY can buy in the next period are not equal, and the latter is greater than the former. At this time, the model obtains new monetary benefits, the system generates a unique budget constraint, and a new bundling method for optimal consumption is gradually shaping.

Relevant departments conducted consumer credential transfers. It specifies the unification of current purchases and the number of consumer goods purchased per day. At this point, the number of consumers that consumers can buy in the next period does not match the larger daily purchases. Because of the savings penalty, the actual price is required to use the coupon to purchase the savings product. If vouchers have a favorable impact on intertemporal allocation, the optimal current consumption needs to be exceeded. There are two cases:

Consumers have made intertemporal consumption decision (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^*,C_{t + 1}^*} \right) , but have not taken actual actions to purchase. If a consumer coupon is issued, X>Ct* {X^\prime} > C_t^{*'''} needs to be satisfied. Otherwise, similar to the previous analysis, the coupon will not work. Similar to the situation under money income, the consumer still chooses the optimal intertemporal consumption bundle for (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^{*'''},C_{t + 1}^{*'''}} \right) .

Consumers have implemented intertemporal consumption decisions. At this point the income has been allocated to (Ct*,Ct+1*) \left( {C_t^*,C_{t + 1}^*} \right) . The number of consumer coupons issued by the government only needs to meet X>Ct*Ct* {X^\prime} > C_t^{*'''} - C_t^* .

If the consumption coupons are effective, the CDM formula explores the economic effect between the consumption coupons and income. The number of coupons is large. Consumer vouchers stimulate current economic consumption better than currency. This is even more pronounced when a liquidity trap occurs. The new optimal current consumption is satisfied when the coupon comes into play. At this time, it is necessary to formulate the timing of issuing consumer coupons reasonably Ct**>Ct* C_t^{**} > C_t^{*'''} . If the vouchers are given before the consumer's optimal intertemporal consumption plan, there will be additional requirements for the number of coupons. The coupon value that defines the current total consumption value is less than or equal to the current total consumption value. When purchasing as initially planned, use coupons to buy desired items. In this case, the savings penalty is invalid [12]. Suppose you choose to issue vouchers after the consumer has made the best plan configuration. At this time, a small number of coupons will also affect the consumer's application activities, and it may continue to need to realize a small number of coupons after completing the optimal consumption. At this point, the savings penalty is given a new value. The substitution effect increases current consumption. In general, intertemporal prices adversely affect the level of utility.

Policy Recommendations

Assume that there are representative consumers with two income levels in the economy and society. Their disposable incomes are Y1 and Y2, let's say Y1 < Y2. We call them low-income earners and high-income earners, respectively. Their utility functions are the same, and the optimal current consumption is Ct1*,Ct2* C_t^{1*},C_t^{2*} respectively. Then in the case of the illiquidity trap, the optimal current consumption of the two is Ct1*<Ct2* C_t^{1*} < C_t^{2*} . Assume that the number of coupons X contained in its income satisfies Ct1*<X<Ct2* C_t^{1*} < X < C_t^{2*} . In that case, the consumer coupons will be sold at a discount to lower-class groups in society. This also leads to savings penalties for high-income, high-consumption groups. If the coupon value is lower than the plan, the coupon will be processed at a low price. While gaining liquidity, the current consumption level increases from Ct1* C_t^{1*} to Ct1* C_t^{1*'} ,

It is assumed that the consumer groups in the market can be divided into two levels. For example, its disposable income is. Separate them into low-income and high-income earners. The similarity is that the same utility function describes them, and the optimal current consumption is selected respectively for their income characteristics. For no-flow traps, the optimal current consumption of both is. Suppose the number of coupons is sufficient. The low-income people will still have extra coupons after completing their consumption. In this case, the group will choose to resell the coupons in the secondary market; on the other hand, the high-income group will ultimately use the vouchers under the savings penalty. High-income groups can buy the remaining consumption coupons sold by low-income groups in the secondary market, which will help reduce the actual consumption amount and improve the utility. At this time, low-income groups will also accept savings penalties before they can sell consumer coupons to save. At this point, the budget constraint is broken. When the substitution and income effects work together, the current consumption level increases from an increase to an increase; on the other hand, the total amount of savings decreases. However, high-income groups buy excess coupons from the secondary market because their consumption plan is greater than the number of coupons. In addition, due to the combined effect of the two products, it will promote consumption and savings.

At this time, it is necessary to consider whether the role of high-income groups in using consumption coupons can supplement the consumption of low-income groups and improve the overall level of social well-being? Even if there is no mature theoretical support, it can be discussed. Implementing a coupon policy is non-neutral in use. Even if it increases the current total consumption, it can effectively improve the utility of high-income groups and reduce the utility of low-income groups. To sum up, if a correct valuation is carried out based on completing the issuance of valid consumer coupons and good secondary market liquidity, the average level of society will also decline.

On the other hand, the effect favors high-income earners and disfavors low-income groups is also incorrect. Different consumer coupon measures should be adopted for groups with varying income levels. Specific recommendations are as follows:

A non-transferable consumption coupon issuance plan should not be implemented, excluding extreme individual problems. Even if this approach is beneficial for stimulating the recovery of the real economy, it will adversely affect intertemporal distribution issues, which will reduce society's overall level of well-being. However, the implementation cost of registering consumer coupons is relatively high, and complete regulatory control is required.

It is necessary to provide a complete and adequate secondary market for the resale of consumer coupons. At the same time, it is required to control the cost of “savings fines” and match the actual demand in real-time to prevent the influence of monopoly power on the economy. To break the liquidity price to maintain equilibrium. Compulsory management of consumer vouchers cannot be implemented. The market will have leftover coupons sold at a discount, with a savings penalty to remain valid. If compulsory consumption is prohibited in the secondary market, the transaction of consumer coupons will be conducted off-site. At this time, the effectiveness of the savings penalty will be increased, the public losses borne by consumers will also deepen, and the subsequent adverse effects on income will also adversely affect market consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a complete secondary market accordingly. Consequently, it can effectively manage illegal behaviors in the transaction of consumer coupons, and it will also reflect the respect for the standardized transaction activities of consumers.

For high-income earners, the stimulus method of issuing consumer coupons within the scope to replace a small portion of income can be adopted. You can allocate more vouchers than the original consumption plan to achieve good results. Only then will intertemporal consumption decisions be effectively controlled. In addition, the program can make appropriate adjustments to the saving habits of high-income groups. In addition, they can trade coupons with low-income people, absorb savings penalties, and benefit from discounted purchases. While high-income earners lose some of their utility, low-income earners make up for it. Improve the overall well-being of society.

When issuing coupons through transfer payment, it is necessary to investigate the income structure of market consumption. Usually follow the following principles: set a standard income level, and issue a set number of consumer coupons to groups below this standard. On the other hand, low-income groups trade excess coupons with high-income groups in the secondary market. Such trading activities can benefit both low-income and high-income groups through such trading activities. This promotes the average well-being of society and can also enhance the consumption vitality of the market.

Fully carry out the technical design of consumer coupons to ensure market liquidity. Issuing local consumption coupons will not be the main reason for improving the consumption structure of consumers in the market. For example, if the low-income groups are provided with coupons limited to luxury consumption. Discount coupons on the secondary market to purchase planned items at that income level. This is equivalent to expanding the scope of punishment. Then the low-income group needs to bear the savings penalty and the consumption penalty simultaneously, which will weaken the utility level of this group.

What needs to be considered is, will consumer coupons have a more significant impact on market price levels? Using a simulated mathematical function tool for analysis, if the number of consumer coupons issued is greater than the consumer's plan, there will be a “savings penalty.” At this time, consumer coupons can stimulate the demand for consumption to a certain extent. In the short term, the inelastic supply of bulk commodities will cause prices to fluctuate if there is a surplus of goods or a shortage of consumption. At this time, consumer coupons may not ultimately cause price fluctuations. Due to the price law of the market, there is often a “small profit but quick turnover” promotion, which reduces the average price level. Therefore, in this economic situation, the consumer coupon program will not have strong fluctuations in the price level. If prices fluctuate, coupons can provide market improvement for deflationary conditions.

Conclusion

For the problem of intertemporal consumption decision-making, if consumers choose to consume in the next period, then consumers will choose to carry out savings transactions. When the utility function is reflected in the concave of the income expansion curve, it will make the stock market price fluctuate, which will have a strong stimulating effect on the current consumption transaction. Based on this research theory, all aspects of income in the consumer coupon program will play a specific role in the current consumer transaction. The characteristic of consumer coupons is that they only cash out the total value of the current consumer market. If you try to convert it into future consumption, you can trade consumer coupons in the secondary market. Known as the “rescue penalty,” it is up to the seller of the voucher to bear the additional cost that must be spent to obtain this liquidity. It also increases the price level of future consumer goods to some extent. Combined with the utility function of preference saving, it is found that this operation can increase current consumption but reduce future consumption. The party bearing the “saving penalty” will exhibit a lower level of utility. Voucher programs can be beneficial to current consumption if the savings needs of the program are not fully realized. It will reduce society's overall well-being and reflect the non-neutrality of the policy in the income structure.

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