Application of Monte Carlo-based predictive stochastic model for energy efficiency retrofit in building clusters
and
Sep 26, 2025
About this article
Published Online: Sep 26, 2025
Received: Jan 24, 2025
Accepted: May 07, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2025-1073
Keywords
© 2025 Shuibo Deng et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Figure 7.
Figure 8.
Figure 9.
Figure 10.
Figure 11.
Figure 12.
Energy saving investment recovery period
| Cost of construction cost | Average energy saving investment recovery period | The energy efficient investment returns 90% of the number |
|---|---|---|
| 5100 | 9 year | 10 year |
| 5200 | 12 year | 13 year |
| 5300 | 25 year | 26 year |
Fixed information input parameters table of 15 retrofit buildings
| Primary energy consumption | Post-renovation energy consumption | Floor area | Layer height | h0(m) | Ka(m) | a(m) | (k+1)/k | h0/a | h0/h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building 1 | 8.56E+13 | 6.85E+13 | 113973 | 54 | 4 | 92 | 22 | 1.2 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| Building 2 | 6.33E+13 | 5.2E+13 | 68119 | 32 | 4 | 115 | 17 | 1.18 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| Building 3 | 4.89E+13 | 4.36E+13 | 53417 | 28 | 4 | 302 | 61 | 1.21 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Building 4 | 3.8E+13 | 2.95E+13 | 44806 | 9 | 4 | 159 | 22 | 1.14 | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| Building 5 | 1.33E+13 | 1E+13 | 20007 | 22 | 4 | 42 | 22 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| Building 6 | 1.05E+13 | 7.95E+13 | 20690 | 21 | 4 | 51 | 20 | 1.4 | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| Building 7 | 3.96E+13 | 3.12E+13 | 103368 | 32 | 4 | 82 | 39 | 1.53 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| Building 8 | 2.95E+13 | 2.65E+13 | 55414 | 43 | 4 | 59 | 22 | 1.3 | 0.16 | 0.01 |
| Building 9 | 2.01E+13 | 1.45E+13 | 31809 | 22 | 4 | 66 | 24 | 1.3 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Building 10 | 1.88E+13 | 1.52E+13 | 53983 | 39 | 4 | 82 | 17 | 1.25 | 0.14 | 0.04 |
| Building 11 | 1.32E+13 | 1.11E+13 | 26881 | 20 | 4 | 52 | 19 | 1.37 | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| Building 12 | 9.9E+13 | 6.95E+13 | 23695 | 25 | 4 | 47 | 23 | 1.46 | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| Building 13 | 9.23E+13 | 7.58E+13 | 30833 | 32 | 4 | 50 | 21 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| Building 14 | 6.21E+13 | 5.22E+13 | 17629 | 22 | 4 | 44 | 22 | 1.47 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| Building 15 | 9.55E+13 | 8.13E+13 | 284633 | 30 | 4 | 398 | 299 | 1.75 | 0 | 0.03 |
The monthly use of a building is based on the number of electricity
| Pretransformation | Retrofitting | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
| January | 148 | 118 | 162 | 121 | 111 | 96 |
| February | 98 | 135 | 98 | 107 | 98 | 88 |
| march | 109 | 172 | 91 | 86 | 91 | 77 |
| April | 20 | 55 | 61 | 51 | 60 | 51 |
| may | 75 | 43 | 73 | 57 | 54 | 51 |
| June | 87 | 80 | 79 | 74 | 60 | 62 |
| July | 108 | 99 | 105 | 88 | 73 | 82 |
| August | 135 | 103 | 111 | 79 | 87 | 83 |
| September | 80 | 80 | 70 | 83 | 68 | 61 |
| October | 67 | 61 | 63 | 58 | 53 | 42 |
| November | 60 | 56 | 58 | 41 | 43 | 51 |
| December | 130 | 110 | 106 | 117 | 91 | 67 |
| Total | 1117 | 1112 | 1077 | 962 | 889 | 811 |
Cost comparison
| Housing type | Cost of construction cost | Final assembly | Standard deviation | Confidence interval(95%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecology | 5100 | 544322 | 1989 | (540802,547936) |
| Ecology | 5200 | 554158 | 1936 | (550815,557855) |
| Ecology | 5300 | 564251 | 1922 | (560933,567811) |
| Tradition | 5000 | 595582 | 4969 | (585904,605372) |