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A study of the dynamic portfolio adjustment model based on the Markov decision process

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Feb 27, 2025

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Figure. 1

Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies-Experimental Group 1
Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies-Experimental Group 1

Figure. 2

Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies-experimental group 2
Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies-experimental group 2

Figure. 3

Smoothing probability
Smoothing probability

Figure. 4

The main flow of the dynamic adjustment model
The main flow of the dynamic adjustment model

Figure. 5

List of assets with equalized
List of assets with equalized

Figure. 6

ETF Returns
ETF Returns

Figure. 7

Effective Frontier
Effective Frontier

Figure. 8

Results of different portfolio management model evaluation metrics for Portfolio 1
Results of different portfolio management model evaluation metrics for Portfolio 1

Figure. 9

Results of different portfolio management model evaluation metrics for portfolio 2
Results of different portfolio management model evaluation metrics for portfolio 2

Figure. 10

Portfolio weighting adjustments (1-10)
Portfolio weighting adjustments (1-10)

Figure. 11

Portfolio weighting adjustments (10-20)
Portfolio weighting adjustments (10-20)

Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies-experimental group 1

Name of Indicator Result
Annualized Return 41.03%
Cumulative Return 120.34%
Annualized Volatility 24.73%
Sharpe Ratio 1.52
Karma Ratio 2.19
Maximum Retracement -18.70%
Sortino Ratio 2.53

Estimates of market parameters

P Q μ1w μ2w σ1w σ2w
Estimated value 0.98 0.98 1.11 0.07 3.51 6.80
Standard deviation 0.06 0.17 0.31 0.66 0.02 0.07

Indicator names and significance of indicators

Name of Indicator Indicator Meaning
Annualized Return Portfolio direct return per year
Cumulative Return Portfolio return at the end of the trading phase
Annualized Volatility A measure of the uncertainty of the rate of return
Sharpe Ratio A classic indicator of the combination of return and risk
Karma Ratio Describes the relationship between return and maximum retracement
Maximum Retracement Describes the portfolio's largest post-drop scenario
Sortino Ratio Describes whether downside risk can lead to higher excess returns

Experimental results of Markov-based investment strategies - Experimental Group 2

Name of Indicator Result
Annualized Return 46.81%
Cumulative Return 93.62%
Annualized Volatility 21.76%
Sharpe Ratio 2.20
Karma Ratio 3.27
Maximum Retracement -18.00%
Sortino Ratio 3.35
Language:
English