<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml">

<p>This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid decline in fertility and population aging. Using LASSO penalized Poisson regression and TVP-VAR model improved by MCMC algorithm based on Bayesian network, the factors affecting the fertility level and their interrelationships are studied. It is found that fertility and education levels affect each other with probabilities of 0.0806 and 0.0825 respectively at 10% significance level. The positive shock of social security level on fertility level increases the response value of fertility level from −1.5 to about 7.5 in 10 lags, showing a positive effect. In contrast, the response of fertility level to house prices gradually decreases from 5 in period 1 to −2.5 in period 10, indicating a negative impact. These analyses provide a scientific basis for constructing a public service fertility support system that can help mitigate the current challenges of low fertility levels.</p>
</abstract>

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid decline in fertility and population aging. Using LASSO penalized Poisson regression and TVP-VAR model improved by MCMC algorithm based on Bayesian network, the factors affecting the fertility level and their interrelationships are studied. It is found that fertility and education levels affect each other with probabilities of 0.0806 and 0.0825 respectively at 10% significance level. The positive shock of social security level on fertility level increases the response value of fertility level from −1.5 to about 7.5 in 10 lags, showing a positive effect. In contrast, the response of fertility level to house prices gradually decreases from 5 in period 1 to −2.5 in period 10, indicating a negative impact. These analyses provide a scientific basis for constructing a public service fertility support system that can help mitigate the current challenges of low fertility levels.

Suggestions for Promoting a Better Public Service System under the Low Fertility Dilemma Based on VAR Modeling

Applied Mathematics and Nonlinear Sciences

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the rapid decline in fertility and population aging. Using LASSO penalized Poisson regression and TVP-VAR model...

Suggestions for Promoting a Better Public Service System under the Low Fertility Dilemma Based on VAR Modeling

Published Online: Feb 26, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Jan 10, 2024

Accepted: Jan 18, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-0474

Keywords
TVP-VAR, Penalized Poisson regression, Granger causality test, Impulse response, Low fertility dilemma

© 2024 Xiuqing Liu et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Suggestions for Promoting a Better Public Service System under the Low Fertility Dilemma Based on VAR Modeling

Published Online: Feb 26, 2024

Page range: -

Received: Jan 10, 2024

Accepted: Jan 18, 2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/amns-2024-0474

KeywordsTVP-VAR, Penalized Poisson regression, Granger causality test, Impulse response, Low fertility dilemma

© 2024 Xiuqing Liu et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Keywords
TVP-VAR, Penalized Poisson regression, Granger causality test, Impulse response, Low fertility dilemma