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Risk in New Sexual Relationships: Trajectories of Protection*

David C. Bell
David C. Bell
   | Sep 27, 2018
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Published Online: Sep 27, 2018
Page range: 1 - 26
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21307/joss-2018-008
Keywords
© 2018 David C. Bell published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Figure 1.

Observed Levels of Protection and Single-Equation Quadratic Prediction Line
Observed Levels of Protection and Single-Equation Quadratic Prediction Line

Figure 2.

Trajectories of Sexual Protection.
Trajectories of Sexual Protection.

Figure 3.

Protection and Retention by Trajectory Group.
Protection and Retention by Trajectory Group.

Summary of Tests of Five Theories of Protection

  Difference (Table 2) Time (Table 3) Protection (Table 3) Duration (Table 4)
Perceived susceptibility − − − −
Trust − + + +/-
Drug use − +/- +/- +/-
Secondary partner + + + +/-
Power inequality − − − −

Comparison of Trajectory Groups

  Protection Trajectory
Low High Declining U-shaped
Evaluation of four-trajectory model
Size (percent)     9.8  63.2     15.3 11.6
Protection index mean (SD)     .15 (.19)     .94 (.11)     .80 (.28)     .66 (.33)
PP     .95     .76     .70     .73
OCC 185.2 1.9 13.0 20.9

Cox Regression to Predict Relationship Termination

  Low b (SE) High b (SE) Declining b (SE) U-shaped b (SE) Overall b (SE)
Initial predictors
Perc susceptibility   0.225(0.706)   0.021(0.206) -0.967(2.601) -1.188(0.907)   0.031(0.219)
Trust -0.073(0.046) -0.070(0.018)**   0.118(0.248)   0.016(0.108) -0.070(0.019)**
Drug use -0.132(0.525) -0.259(0.132)* -2.048(1.311)   0.586(0.767) -0.329(0.151)*
Secondary partner   0.697(0.307)*   0.213(0.096)*   0.105(1.053) -0.821(0.739)   0.126(0.108)
Power inequality -0.043(0.359)   0.051(0.090) -0.071(0.636) -0.466(0.422)   0.025(0.100)
Time-varying predictors
Perc susceptibility         -0.044(0.047)
Trust         -0.007(0.005)
Drug use         -0.004(0.036)
Secondary partner           0.078(0.024)**
Power inequality         -0.026(0.023)

j.joss-2018-008.tab.006

Wave: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total
Gender
Male 56 57 57 57 56 57 57 55 53 54 54 55 51 55
Female 44 43 43 43 44 43 43 45 47 46 46 45 49 45
Race
Black 55 58 59 59 60 61 59 58 57 59 59 59 59 58
Anglo 16 12 13 12 11 11 13 14 14 14 12 14 14 13
Hispanic 29 30 29 29 29 28 28 28 29 27 30 27 26 28
Age at baseline
18-30 11 9 8 9 8 8 7 9 7 9 8 6 6 8
31-40 33 31 33 31 33 29 28 28 30 26 22 25 24 29
41-50 38 43 39 40 39 44 43 39 39 42 44 45 43 41
51 and over 17 17 20 22 20 19 21 24 24 24 26 24 27 22
Employment
Unemployed 49 51 54 47 50 56 51 51 48 47 55 47 43 50
Odd jobs 12 8 9 15 10 9 17 14 22 16 16 19 16 14
Part time 10 12 13 18 12 13 11 14 11 15 10 13 20 13
Full time 30 30 24 21 28 22 21 21 19 22 20 21 20 23
Marital status at baseline
Never married 37 33 31 29 29 27 27 33 33 29 35 38 29 32
Married 15 13 13 17 16 17 17 14 12 14 12 14 14 15
Living as married 14 14 17 18 20 20 20 16 19 21 16 13 17 17
Separated 12 12 17 13 14 17 14 16 14 12 14 12 14 14
Divorced 18 23 18 17 15 14 16 14 15 15 16 14 17 16
Widowed 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 6
Drug use
None 14 14 13 12 14 15 15 16 17 19 18 18 16 16
Mari/alco only 14 17 19 19 16 19 16 16 21 16 16 13 20 17
Hard drugs 71 69 67 68 70 65 69 68 61 65 66 68 64 67
HIV status role
Role 1 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Ever Role 2 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
Always Role 3 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
HIV status
HIV negative 88 88 90 91 90 89 91 90 90 89 90 91 91 90
HIV positive 12 12 10 9 10 11 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 10
Sample size 202 162 150 144 147 139 150 153 149 149 147 141 138 202

Explaining Protection Changes, by Trajectory

Constant trajectories Low Protection High Protection
  Time b (SE) Time2 b (SE) Protection b (SE) Time b (SE) Time2 b (SE) Protection b (SE)
Perc susceptibility  .002 (.006) .--  .001 (.073) -.001 (.006) .--  .010 (.026)
Trust  .137 (.059)* .-- -.006 (.008)  .208 (.041) .-- -.004 (.002)*
Drug use -.021 (.008)** .-- -.131 (.035)** -.000 (.006) .-- .014 (.014)
Secondary partner -.062 (.022)**  .003 (.001)*  .239 (.045)** -.011 (.006)+ .-- -.001 (.011)
Power inequality -.010 (.013) .-- .007 (.033) -.010 (.007) .-- -.004 (.011)

Sample Characteristics

  All Participants All Sex Partners New Sex Partners
  N % N % N %
Gender
Male 113 55.9 487 61.6 243 59.0
Female 89 44.1 303 38.4 169 41.0
Race/ethnicity
Black 111 55.0 430 54.5 220 53.5
White 33 16.3 180 22.8 112 27.3
Hispanic 58 28.7 174 22.1 78 19.0
Other     5 0.6 1 0.2
Age at baseline
18-30 24 11.9 181 22.9 113 27.5
31-40 67 33.2 284 35.9 148 35.9
41-50 77 38.1 221 28.0 111 26.9
51 and over 34 16.8 104 13.2 40 9.7
Marital status
Single 75 37.1        
Married 59 29.2        
Prev married 68 33.7        
Employment status
Unemployed 98 48.5        
Odd jobs 24 11.9        
Part time 20 9.9        
Full time 60 29.7        
Drug user
No (nonuser) 33 16.3 328 41.5 160 38.8
Yes (drug user) 169 83.7 462 58.5 252 61.2
Sex behaviors (inferred sexual orientation)
No sex 12 5.9        
Straight 146 72.3 680 86.1 345 83.7
Gay or bi 44 21.8 110 13.9 67 16.3
HIV status
HIV negative 177 87.6 701 88.7 366 88.8
HIV positive 25 12.4 89 11.3 46 11.2
Total N 202 100.0 790 100.0 412 100.0
eISSN:
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Language:
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Publication timeframe:
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Journal Subjects:
Social Sciences, other
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