<abstract xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><p> As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.</p></abstract>

As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression that makes it possible to find out an independent on time law of trajectory, a periodic component of sinusoidal type and a residual sequence of independent random quantities. Modeling of the trajectory fluctuations is based on the deterministic part, consisting of the regression of the 8th order and periodic component, and also the random part, consisting of independent equally distributed quantities. Using this model it can be modeled the trajectory of the level fluctuations in lake naroch. The modeled trajectory by 200 years long demonstrated the probability of exceeding of maximum annual level, equal 1 per cent.

Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Institute of Geography and regional Studies, Pomeranian University in Słupsk, Poland

Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, Brest State Technical University, Brest, Belarus

Quaestiones Geographicae

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

{"article-title":"Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch"}

As a result of the conducted investigations of the level fluctuations in lake naroch the initial data are divided into 3 components: a polynomial regression...

Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Published Online: Mar 31, 2016

Page range: 57 - 62

Received: Jun 08, 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2016-0005

Keywords
lake level changes, modelling, trajectory, recent past, lake naroch, Belarus

© Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Modeling of the Trajectory of the Level Fluctuations in Lake Naroch

Published Online: Mar 31, 2016

Page range: 57 - 62

Received: Jun 08, 2015

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/quageo-2016-0005

Keywordslake level changes, modelling, trajectory, recent past, lake naroch, Belarus

© Faculty of Geographical and Geological Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.

Keywords
lake level changes, modelling, trajectory, recent past, lake naroch, Belarus