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Maximum River Runoff in Poland Under Climate Warming Conditions

Wiktoria Brzezińska

Wiktoria Brzezińska

Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University in PoznańPoznań, Poland
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Brzezińska, Wiktoria
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Dariusz Wrzesiński

Dariusz Wrzesiński

Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University in PoznańPoznań, Poland
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Wrzesiński, Dariusz
  
Mar 15, 2025
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Published Online: Mar 15, 2025
Page range: 85 - 105
Received: Sep 16, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2025-0006
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© 2025 Wiktoria Brzezińska et al., published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Fig. 1.

The range and trend of changes in air temperatures from 1951 to 2020 and in the period before (1951–1988) and during the warming (1988–2020) according to Wrzesiński and Brzezińska (2023), modified.
The range and trend of changes in air temperatures from 1951 to 2020 and in the period before (1951–1988) and during the warming (1988–2020) according to Wrzesiński and Brzezińska (2023), modified.

Fig. 2.

The location of water gauge stations on rivers studied in Poland (based on data from IMGW-PIB; numbering in accordance with Appendix 1).
The location of water gauge stations on rivers studied in Poland (based on data from IMGW-PIB; numbering in accordance with Appendix 1).

Fig. 3.

Trends in changes of maximum daily discharge in a hydrological year against average maximum specific runoff from 1951 to 2020.
Trends in changes of maximum daily discharge in a hydrological year against average maximum specific runoff from 1951 to 2020.

Fig. 4.

Trends in changes of maximum daily seasonal discharge against the average maximum specific runoff in four seasons in 1951–2020.
Trends in changes of maximum daily seasonal discharge against the average maximum specific runoff in four seasons in 1951–2020.

Fig. 5.

Percent share of trends with a defined statistical significance (p) in analysed series of monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge from 1951 to 2020.
Percent share of trends with a defined statistical significance (p) in analysed series of monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge from 1951 to 2020.

Fig. 6.

Changes in average maximum runoff values [%] during the 1988–2020 warming period relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).
Changes in average maximum runoff values [%] during the 1988–2020 warming period relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).

Fig. 7.

Changes in seasonal average maximum runoff values [%] during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).
Changes in seasonal average maximum runoff values [%] during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).

Fig. 8.

Percent share of positive and negative differences in average monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to 1951–1988 and their statistical significance (p).
Percent share of positive and negative differences in average monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to 1951–1988 and their statistical significance (p).

Fig. 9

Dendrogram of gauges grouping based on 12 monthly values of the changes in the average maximum specific runoff and the plot of the linkage distance. Note: gauge ID codes in accordance with Appendix 1.
Dendrogram of gauges grouping based on 12 monthly values of the changes in the average maximum specific runoff and the plot of the linkage distance. Note: gauge ID codes in accordance with Appendix 1.

Fig. 10.

Locations of water gauges grouped based on changes in the monthly average maximum specific runoff during the warming period of 1988–2020.
Locations of water gauges grouped based on changes in the monthly average maximum specific runoff during the warming period of 1988–2020.

Fig. 11.

The scope of changes in average maximum specific runoff (MHq) in the warming period after the 1988 in individual groups, as derived from the grouping presented in Figure 9.
The scope of changes in average maximum specific runoff (MHq) in the warming period after the 1988 in individual groups, as derived from the grouping presented in Figure 9.

Inventory of rivers and water gauge cross sections and basic hydrological data from 1951 to 2020 after Wrzesinski 2016, 2021, modified (Note: Mq – mean specific runoff; MLq – mean low specific runoff; *Types of river regime: 1 –nival poorly developed, 2–nival moderately developed, 3 –nival strongly developed, 4 – nival-pluvial, 5 – pluvial-nival_ Statistically significant change at: * p<0_05, ** p<0_01, *** p<0_001)_

ID River Water gauge Latitude Longitude Catchment area Mean specific runoff Mq1951–2020 Mean high specific runoff MHq1951–2020 Mean low specific runoff MLq1951–2020 River Regime* Mean high specific runoff MHq Test of change MHq1988–2020 – MHq1951–1988
1951–1988 1988–2020
[°] [km2] [dm3 s−1 km−2] [–] [dm3 s−1 km−2]
1 Odra Chałupki 18.33 49.92 4666 8.95 82.12 2.02 4 82.13 80.52 0.11
2 Odra Racibórz-Miedonia 18.23 50.12 6744 9.54 80.60 2.36 4 77.76 82.53 0.34
3 Odra Scinawa 16.44 51.41 29584 5.99 24.02 2.17 4 25.11 22.48 0.76
4 Odra Cigacice 15.61 52.03 40106 5.41 18.94 2.13 2 19.64 18.07 0.64
5 Odra Połęcko 14.89 52.05 47370 5.30 16.88 2.21 2 17.48 16.13 0.63
6 Odra Słubice 14.56 52.35 53600 5.52 16.29 2.35 2 17.28 15.12 1.21
7 Odra Gozdowice 14.32 52.76 109729 4.66 10.76 2.22 2 11.3 10.2 1.08
8 Sumina Nędza 18.31 50.16 94.4 6.12 67.18 1.93 4 75.45 56.67 1.64
9 Nysa Kłodzka Bystrzyca Kłodzka 16.65 50.29 260 14.80 189.86 2.46 4 174.09 208.3 1.02
10 Nysa Kłodzka Kłodzko 16.66 50.44 1084 11.57 113.74 3.17 4 104.53 123.71 0.85
11 Nysa Kłodzka Nysa 17.34 50.48 3276 8.83 48.10 1.99 4 51.37 43.79 0.55
12 Nysa Kłodzka Skorogoszcz 17.67 50.76 4514 7.92 43.73 2.17 4 49.61 36.39 1.4
13 Bystrzyca Dusznicka Szalejów Dolny 16.6 50.42 175 11.99 118.41 4.33 2 123.67 112.24 0.61
14 Scinawka Tłumaczów 16.44 50.55 256 8.87 111.80 2.19 2 110.97 112.45 0.06
15 Scinawka Gorzuchów 16.57 50.49 511 8.71 122.88 2.40 4 151.28 88.52 2.51*
16 Biała Głucho-łaska Głuchołazy 17.38 50.32 283 17.19 162.11 5.60 4 168.72 150.77 0.33
17 Bystrzyca Krasków 16.58 50.92 683 6.53 90.31 1.11 4 94 84.04 0.4
18 Piława Mościsko 16.58 50.78 291 5.47 73.34 1.03 4 79.47 64.66 1
19 Strzegomka Łażany 16.49 50.95 356 6.28 68.49 2.26 4 81.99 51.49 2.06*
20 Barycz Osetno 16.46 51.63 4579 3.22 14.68 0.35 3 16.08 13.17 1.48
21 Bóbr Zagań 15.32 51.62 4254 8.74 46.54 2.97 4 53.16 38.8 1.66
22 Kamienica Barcinek 15.6 50.94 97.2 12.36 165.20 1.72 2 153.57 176.19 0.51
23 Kwisa Nowogrodziec 15.4 51.2 736 9.73 93.96 2.60 4 100.97 85.37 0.85
24 Czarny Potok Mirsk 15.38 50.99 55.9 15.68 225.55 2.91 4 233.86 213.7 0.44
25 Czerna Wielka Zagań 15.29 51.61 896 4.72 22.59 1.58 2 26.45 18.02 2.06*
26 Warta Działoszyn 18.87 51.11 4088 5.89 22.22 2.77 2 24.27 19.6 1.67
27 Warta Sieradz 18.74 51.6 8140 5.43 18.81 2.60 2 21.15 15.97 2.43*
28 Warta Poznań-Most Rocha 16.95 52.4 25126 3.95 11.39 1.59 2 13.68 8.75 3.64***
29 Warta Skwierzyna 15.5 52.6 31268 3.91 10.33 1.66 2 12.27 8.18 3.44**
30 Warta Gorzów Wielko-polski 15.25 52.73 52186 3.94 8.64 1.92 2 9.81 7.38 2.92**
31 Oleśnica Niechmirów 18.76 51.39 592 4.02 29.98 0.95 3 36.11 23 2.48*
32 Grabia Grabno 18.98 51.46 811 5.08 34.39 1.35 3 38.19 29.58 1.86
33 Ner Dąbie 18.82 52.08 1712 5.76 22.38 1.44 2 25.76 18.54 3.21**
34 Prosna Mirków 18.16 51.32 1255 3.99 26.71 0.94 2 32.94 19.56 3.75***
35 Prosna Piwonice 18.11 51.73 2938 3.78 19.83 1.03 2 23.44 15.65 3.03**
36 Prosna Bogusław 17.95 51.9 4304 3.62 18.59 0.90 2 22.23 14.38 3.16**
37 Niesób Kuźnica Skakawska 18.13 51.28 246 3.93 30.25 0.95 3 36.15 23.28 2.5*
38 Ołobok Ołobok 18.07 51.64 447 3.51 25.12 0.56 3 27.46 22.44 1.5
39 Mogilnica Konojad 16.53 52.15 663 2.45 13.05 0.25 3 15.44 10.92 1.99
40 Wełna Pruśce 17.1 52.77 1130 2.93 9.28 0.68 3 11.17 7.48 2.37*
41 Flinta Ryczywół 16.84 52.82 276 2.35 11.33 0.36 3 12.74 10.02 1.83
42 Sama Szamotuły 16.58 52.61 395 2.64 13.59 0.42 3 17.39 10.39 2.33*
43 Noteć Nowe Drezdenko 15.84 52.85 15970 4.54 8.03 2.47 2 8.53 7.57 1.89
44 Mała Noteć Gębice 18.03 52.6 182 3.23 8.71 0.81 2 10.73 6.67 2.99**
45 Gąsawka Znin 17.72 52.85 148 3.45 8.88 0.80 3 10.3 7.34 2.15*
46 Gwda Piła 16.74 53.15 4704 5.71 11.30 3.08 1 11.86 10.73 1.53
47 Drawa Drawsko Pomorskie 15.81 53.53 609 6.63 17.11 2.61 2 18.82 15.26 2.75**
48 Ina Goleniów 14.83 53.56 2163 5.88 15.76 2.54 2 16.55 14.94 1.06
49 Rega Trzebiatów 15.26 54.06 2628 7.59 19.99 3.48 2 20.29 19.75 0.41
50 Parsęta Tychówko 16.07 53.9 896 9.17 37.00 4.42 2 38.69 35 1.2
51 Wieprza Stary Kraków 16.61 54.44 1519 10.37 26.89 6.09 1 26.88 26.88 0
52 Słupia Słupsk 17.03 54.47 1450 10.73 21.47 6.03 1 21.14 21.75 0.56
53 Łupawa Smołdzino 17.21 54.66 805 10.33 19.89 6.67 1 18.33 21.62 2.24*
54 Wisła Skoczów 18.79 49.8 297 20.33 329.98 2.18 4 315.92 341.59 0.47
55 Wisła Goczałkowice 18.99 49.93 738 12.08 142.09 1.40 5 145.39 135.27 0.36
56 Wisła Jawiszowice 19.12 49.97 971 13.51 143.98 2.43 5 142.19 143.08 0.03
57 Wisła Bieruń Nowy 19.19 50.06 1748 12.11 105.48 3.06 4 110.2 98.19 0.65
58 Wisła Jagodniki 20.68 50.2 12058 10.60 85.32 3.87 4 84.91 84.4 0.04
59 Wisła Szczucin 21.08 50.33 23901 9.75 72.43 3.37 4 72.54 71.15 0.13
60 Wisła Sandomierz 21.75 50.67 31846 9.03 64.86 3.02 4 67.4 60.88 0.74
61 Wisła Zawichost 21.86 50.81 50732 8.30 53.20 2.65 4 56.42 48.81 1.25
62 Wisła Annopol 21.83 50.89 51518 8.30 51.89 2.68 4 54.17 48.6 0.92
63 Wisła Dęblin 21.83 51.56 68234 7.23 37.81 2.59 4 38.44 36.65 0.43
64 Wisła Toruń 18.61 53.01 181033 5.31 18.96 2.02 2 20.64 16.92 2.26*
65 Wisła Tczew 18.8 54.1 194376 5.30 16.83 2.16 2 17.8 15.6 1.48
66 Iłownica Czechowice-Dzie-dzice 18.99 49.91 194 15.53 280.63 2.66 5 280.49 276.73 0.07
67 Soła Oświęcim 19.22 50.04 1386 15.00 217.87 2.19 4 211.85 220.41 0.25
68 Skawa Sucha Beskidzka 19.61 49.74 468 16.11 278.35 2.68 4 239.3 318.73 1.46
69 Skawa Wadowice 19.51 49.88 836 14.74 211.23 2.62 4 195.77 225.01 0.94
70 Raba Proszówki 20.43 50 1470 11.31 216.76 2.24 4 221.95 206.76 0.41
71 Dunajec Krościenko 20.43 49.44 1580 20.13 216.22 4.94 5 219.8 208.3 0.37
72 Dunajec Nowy Sącz 20.69 49.63 4341 14.99 176.01 3.57 4 176.37 171.93 0.15
73 Poprad Muszyna 20.89 49.34 1514 11.60 120.53 2.84 4 114.92 124.57 0.55
74 Poprad Stary Sącz 20.66 49.57 2071 12.07 130.75 3.02 4 132.36 126.38 0.29
75 Biała Koszyce Wielkie 20.95 50 957 9.21 207.34 1.35 4 217.84 191.74 0.66
76 Nida Brzegi 20.41 50.74 2259 5.62 42.04 2.05 2 46.51 36.23 1.67
77 Nida Pińczów 20.52 50.51 3352 5.33 33.55 1.96 2 39.7 25.99 2.96**
78 Czarna Nida Tokarnia 20.45 50.77 1216 5.43 54.19 1.94 2 57.88 49.02 0.96
79 Czarna Połaniec 21.28 50.43 1354 4.73 58.81 1.52 3 77.41 36.18 4.34***
80 Wisłoka Zółków 21.46 49.73 581 12.20 235.40 1.05 4 211.26 260.34 1.41
81 Ropa Klęczany 21.22 49.7 483 12.90 249.96 2.66 4 234.54 263.99 0.72
82 Brzeźnica Brzeźnica 21.49 50.11 484 6.74 132.28 1.53 4 145.56 113.93 1.38
83 San Lesko 22.32 49.47 1614 17.60 148.82 3.64 4 149.42 147.91 0.07
84 San Przemysl 22.77 49.78 3686 14.11 131.75 2.88 4 140.58 120.18 1.14
85 San Jarosław 22.7 50.02 7041 9.91 79.45 2.53 4 87.39 69.57 1.67
86 San Radomyśl 21.93 50.67 16824 7.66 46.92 2.32 4 49.07 43.89 1.06
87 Osława Zagórz 22.27 49.51 505 16.14 254.87 1.56 4 234.36 277.31 1.21
88 Wiar Krówniki 22.82 49.77 789 8.01 167.62 1.03 4 158.96 174.8 0.46
89 Wisznia Nienowice 22.92 49.94 1185 5.66 83.74 0.95 4 98.66 66.04 2.13*
90 Wisłok Krosno 21.77 49.69 596 10.39 132.14 1.44 4 128.34 135.73 0.46
91 Wisłok Zarnowa 21.82 49.88 1427 9.11 107.57 1.52 4 100.65 115.05 1.14
92 Wisłok Rzeszów 22.02 50.04 2086 8.34 91.88 1.30 4 83.99 100.03 1.39
93 Wisłok Tryńcza 22.55 50.16 3516 7.22 62.19 1.66 4 60.3 63.81 0.5
94 Mleczka Gorliczyna 22.49 50.08 529 5.49 92.89 0.79 4 85.06 100.17 0.86
95 Tanew Harasiuki 22.47 50.48 2034 6.01 37.01 2.42 2 44.17 28.17 3.22**
96 Kamienna Wąchock 21.02 51.08 476 6.11 62.81 1.55 2 68.27 55.43 1.62
97 Wieprz Zwierzyniec 22.97 50.61 405 5.08 17.45 2.77 1 19.58 14.89 1.69
98 Wieprz Krasnystaw 23.18 50.99 3001 4.12 16.46 2.06 2 19.72 12.54 1.97
99 Wieprz Lubartów 22.64 51.5 6364 3.54 11.69 1.67 2 14.23 8.61 2.27*
100 Wieprz Kośmin 22 51.57 10231 3.59 11.98 1.57 2 14.4 9.05 2.72**
101 Bystrzyca Sobianowice 22.69 51.3 1265 3.98 16.48 2.06 2 18.26 14.22 1.15
102 Pilica Przedbórz 19.88 51.09 2536 5.90 27.00 2.23 2 32.24 20.53 2.8**
103 Pilica Nowe Miasto 20.57 51.61 6717 5.29 21.96 2.33 2 26.41 16.49 3.45***
104 Pilica Białobrzegi 20.95 51.66 8664 5.09 19.91 2.24 2 24.68 14.08 4.36***
105 Czarna Dąbrowa 19.97 51.31 941 6.25 48.05 1.79 2 55.24 38.94 2.53*
106 Wolbórka Zawada 19.94 51.53 616 4.36 38.87 1.19 2 43.39 33.32 1.66
107 Drzewiczka Odrzywół 20.56 51.52 1004 5.29 36.78 1.76 2 49.48 21.49 4.43***
108 Narew Narew 23.52 52.92 1978 4.63 21.96 1.28 3 29.82 13.59 5.03***
109 Narew Suraż 22.96 52.95 3376 4.42 21.18 1.21 3 25.71 16.45 3.02**
110 Narew Strękowa Góra 22.54 53.22 7181 4.48 17.15 1.38 3 21.37 12.49 3.43**
111 Narew Wizna 22.41 53.2 14308 4.71 16.71 1.58 3 20.1 13.06 2.87**
112 Narew Piątnica-Łomża 22.09 53.19 15296 4.79 16.51 1.66 3 19.86 12.86 2.93**
113 Narew Nowogród 21.86 53.23 20106 4.83 14.99 1.92 3 18.14 11.55 2.97**
114 Narew Ostrołęka 21.56 53.08 21862 4.94 15.00 1.96 3 18.14 11.52 3.1**
115 Narewka Narewka 23.73 52.86 590 4.97 32.10 1.10 3 38.67 25.21 3.02**
116 Supraśl Fasty 23.03 53.18 1817 4.86 18.36 1.98 2 21.2 15.52 2.4*
117 Biebrza Sztabin 23.12 53.67 846 5.44 31.24 1.44 3 38.72 23.18 3.14**
118 Biebrza Dębowo 22.93 53.61 2322 5.30 21.80 1.50 3 26.31 16.88 3.13**
119 Biebrza Osowiec 22.64 53.48 4365 5.07 17.74 1.55 3 20.63 14.46 2.21*
120 Biebrza Burzyn 22.46 53.27 6900 5.01 18.35 1.67 3 20.82 15.88 1.62
121 Brzozówka Karpowicze 23.04 53.59 650 4.89 43.14 0.98 3 52.74 32.59 3.29**
122 Pisa Ptaki 21.79 53.39 3562 5.76 10.62 3.13 1 11.56 9.61 2.32*
123 Pisa Dobrylas 21.87 53.28 4061 5.78 11.59 3.11 2 12.94 10.15 3.24**
124 Rozoga Myszyniec 21.34 53.39 231 4.92 27.05 0.85 2 32.93 21.5 2.79**
125 Omulew Krukowo 21.11 53.31 1265 5.39 12.49 2.07 2 14.18 10.63 3.86***
126 Orzyc Krasnosielc 21.15 53.04 1268 4.51 21.86 0.90 2 25.02 18.41 2.18*
127 Bug Włodawa 23.57 51.55 14410 3.82 15.57 1.28 3 19.32 11.07 3.32**
128 Bug Frankopol 22.56 52.41 31336 3.74 12.90 1.30 3 15.84 9.48 3.88***
129 Bug Wyszków 21.45 52.59 39119 3.89 14.31 1.34 3 17.75 10.44 3.57***
130 Włodawka Okuninka 23.52 51.52 576 3.70 21.70 0.73 3 25.34 17.51 2.18*
131 Krzna Malowa Góra 23.47 52.1 3128 3.43 18.11 0.83 3 19.83 16.28 1.51
132 Nurzec Boćki 23.04 52.65 556 4.25 40.95 0.77 3 50 30.72 2.81**
133 Nurzec Boćki 23.04 52.65 556 4.25 40.95 0.77 3 50 30.72 2.81**
134 Nurzec Brańsk 22.82 52.74 1227 4.02 46.77 0.67 3 57.67 35.28 3.44**
135 Liwiec Łochów 21.68 52.51 2466 4.25 32.71 0.92 3 40.65 23.66 3.28**
136 Rawka Kęszyce 20.13 52.14 1191 4.02 17.32 1.71 2 20.88 13 2.86**
137 Skrwa Parzeń 19.54 52.65 1534 3.96 25.48 0.90 3 28.35 22.21 1.3
138 Drwęca Nowe Miasto Lu-bawskie 19.59 53.42 2725 5.99 12.22 2.87 2 12.79 11.69 1.01
139 Drwęca Brodnica 19.4 53.26 3526 6.10 11.70 3.17 2 12.29 11.13 1.17
140 Drwęca Elgiszewo 18.93 53.06 4959 5.51 10.95 2.82 2 11.65 10.19 1.36
141 Wel Kuligi 19.69 53.43 764 6.54 12.44 3.61 1 13.44 11.28 2.71**
142 Brda Tuchola 17.9 53.57 2462 7.88 12.29 4.60 1 12.21 12.41 0.3
143 Wda Czarna Woda 18.09 53.84 940 6.68 11.00 4.07 1 12.31 9.49 5.09***
144 Wierzyca Brody Pomorskie 18.76 53.86 1544 5.55 13.72 2.79 2 15.54 11.61 3.67***
145 Łyna Sępopol 21.01 54.27 3647 6.71 25.12 2.57 2 26.19 24.04 0.89
146 Guber Prosna 21.09 54.23 1568 5.44 33.22 0.85 2 35.09 31.16 1.02
147 Gołdapa Banie Mazurskie 22.03 54.25 548 8.46 44.39 2.20 3 48.87 39.48 2.26*
148 Czarna Hańcza Czerwony Folwark 23.12 54.07 454 8.33 13.75 4.68 2 14.92 12.34 2.45*
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