Potential Effects of the War in Ukraine on the Global Agri-food Sector

The Ukraine and Russia play important roles for global food security as major exporters of agri-food products. The study of Berndt et al. (2022) uses global computable equilibrium models to analyse how the war in Ukraine could affect global agri-food prices and finds that export restrictions from Ukraine and Russia can considerably increase global grain and oilseed prices. In the long-run, these price increases can be reduced through increased production and exports from other countries. However, some price increases, especially for sunflower oil, would remain permanent.