Use of the Decision Tree Method in the Process of Creating Variants of Friendly Activities Within Staff Planning At the Tactical Level

The military decision-making process (MDMP) plays a decisive role in planning an operation at the tactical level. The core of the whole process is a series of gradually performed activities (phases and individual planning steps), the second phase of which is the creation of variants of friendly activities (Courses of Action – COAs), in which the variants are prepared, analyzed and compared. During the creation of variants of activities, the staff (designated teams) prepares various variants which are then analyzed and compared. The aim of the preparation of variants is to determine one or more variants to accomplish the combat task (objectives of the operation). The variant then represents an acceptably developed plan for the anticipated adversary course of action (ACOA). The authors of the article focus on developing the use of the “decision trees” method in the preparation of variants of friendly activities. The authors attempt to examine the use of this systematic-analytical method for the preparation of variants of friendly activities, where decision-making takes place in several stages. The creation of variants is carried out according to NATO documents with the use of simulation methods, which can be incorporated into the stage decision-making process and used in combination with the decision tree method.