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Fig. 1

Simplified outline of the construction plan based on condensed work packages.Source: Nkado (1992).
Simplified outline of the construction plan based on condensed work packages.Source: Nkado (1992).

Fig. 2

Example of controlling activity path (CAP) in time–location diagram.Source: Mattila and Park (2003).
Example of controlling activity path (CAP) in time–location diagram.Source: Mattila and Park (2003).

Fig. 3

Graphical representation of the equation of total project time in LSM for continuous full-span activities.Source: Radujkovic (2012).
Graphical representation of the equation of total project time in LSM for continuous full-span activities.Source: Radujkovic (2012).

Fig. 4

Representative pipeline project from the analyzed sewer system.Source: project technical documentation
Representative pipeline project from the analyzed sewer system.Source: project technical documentation

Fig. 5

Task links and the three possible variations between two activities.
Task links and the three possible variations between two activities.

Leading activities and their related variables of another pipeline project from the same sewer system

Leading activities ΔQ Up Δl α, β (tan−1) ta (days) Task link k y
1 Pulverizing and grinding of existing roadway asphalt or concrete curtain 4500 292.08 2113 0.0073 16 F-F 1 8
2 Mechanical excavation 5653.52 669.76 2113 0.0040 9 F-F 1 7
3 Manual excavation 1413.38 669.76 2113 0.0010 3 F-F 0 2
4 Replacement of low foundation material 559.98 878.40 2113 0.0003 1 S-S 1 1
5 Trimming, leveling, and grading the landfill base 1610 2927.9 2113 0.0003 1 S-S 1 1
6 Spreading filter pedestrian finishing base 209 878.40 2113 0.0001 1 S-S 1 1
7 Installation of manholes 133 2.00 2113 0.0197 42 S-S 0 0
8 Lowering pipe into trench 2113.6 36.40 2113 0.0275 59 F-F 1 58
9 Spreading rounded gravel above the pipes 1071.1296 878.40 2113 0.0006 2 S-S 1 1
10 Backfill 2480 1152.9 2113 0.0010 3 F-F 1 2
11 Embankment-road compacting 2080 1112.6 2113 0.0009 2 S-S 1 1
12 Base pavement-base course layer 5195 1145.4 2113 0.0021 5 S-S 1 1
13 Surface pavement-binder and wearing course 5195 1145.4 2113 0.0021 5

Total time: 88 days

Linear continuous activities of the analyzed pipeline project and their related variables

Leading activities First three variables determined from technical documentation

ΔQ Up Δl α, β (tan−1) tn (days) Task link k y
1 Pulverizing and grinding of existing roadway asphalt or concrete curtain 2662.807 292.08 920 0.009909 10 F-F 1 6
2 Mechanical excavation 2949.962 669.76 920 0.004787 5 F-F 1 4
3 Manual excavation 737.49 669.76 920 0.001199 2 F-F 0 1
4 Replacement of low foundation material 474.896 878.40 920 0.000588 1 S-S 1 1
5 Trimming, leveling, and grading of the landfill base 1637.047 2927.9 920 0.000608 1 F-F 1 1
6 Spreading filter pedestrian finishing base 248.39 878.40 920 0.00030 1 S-S 1 1
7 Installation of manholes 47 2.00 920 0.012771 24 S-S 0 0
8 Lowering of pipe into trench 849.38 36.40 920 0.025358 24 F-F 1 23
9 Spreading rounded gravel above the pipes 1273.79 878.40 920 0.001576 2 S-S 1 1
10 Backfill 2815.45 1152.9 920 0.002654 3 F-F 1 3
11 Embankment-road compacting 941.31 1112.6 920 0.000920 1 S-S 1 1
12 Base pavement-base course layer 2344.797 1145.4 920 0.002225 3 S-S 1 1
13 Surface pavement-binder and wearing course 2344.797 1145.4 920 0.002225 3

Total time 46d

The equations for calculation of time buffer and duration of two adjacent activities

Situation 1. α = βProduction rate: tasks A1 and A2 are equal. Recommended task link: Start–Start (S–S) Total duration: T = k + t(A2) Time buffer: y = k Situation 2. α < βProduction rate: task A1 is faster than task A2.Recommended task link:Start–Start (S–S)Total duration: T = k + t(A2)Time buffer: y = k
Situation 3. α > βProduction rate: task A2 is faster than task A1.Recommended task link: Finish–Finish (F–F)Total duration: T = k + t(A1) - t(A2) + t(A2)Time buffer: y = k + Δt = k + t(A1) - t(A2)

Comparison of the new LSM-based method for time estimation with the two existing methods

Integrated CPM–LOB model (Ammar, 2013) PSM (Lucko, 2007, 2008) LSM-based method for early time estimation
1) LOB calculationsThis step consists of (at least) four (sub)steps. First is to draw a unit network (of repetitive activities for single work unit); second is to estimate the crew size for each activity; third is to establish a target rate of output (this (sub)step can be further divided into smaller steps); fourth is to derive the LOB diagram. 1) Initial equationsThe execution of PSM starts with describing all activities in the Macaulay bracket notation (e.g., singularity functions). However, no links are considered for the initial equations (one equation for each activity). 1) Activity listBased on available technical documentation, devise the list of linear activities of the projects, along with their parameters of work quantity and work group productivity (average). Work quantity is spread through work units using linear interpolation to make every activity continuous. Their sequence must be established unambiguously.
2) Calculating activity durationOverlapping activities are generalized to represent repetitive activities. For this generalization to be possible, the duration is assumed constant in all units of a repetitive activity. 2) Buffer equationsIn the second step, the singularity functions for buffers are set up (one equation for each buffer). 2) Calculating activity durations and slopesCalculate durations and unit production rates (e.g., slopes) for every linear continuous activity.
3) Specifying logical relationships using overlapping activities (buffer time)To specify relationships, the actual progress rate of each activity is compared with that of its successors. Three scenarios can be encountered: diverging, converging, and parallel activities. Based on the scenario, the buffer time is placed on the first or the last unit. 3) Initial stackingIn the third step, the initial activity and buffer equations are stacked up in the order of precedence with the set of singularity functions (one equation for each activity). 3) Using the newly developed algorithm for determination of buffers between activitiesPair of activities can converge, can diverge, or be parallel depending on the relation of production rates of two adjacent activities. Depending on this relation, the equation for every buffer y is determined, and calculation of the buffer is performed.
4) Time scheduling1. Forward pass – the early timings (belong to the first and last units only) are determined for each activity. 2. Backward pass – the late timings (belong to the first and last units only) are determined for each activity. 4) Minimum differencesIn the fourth step, the differences between neighboring predecessor buffer equations and successor equations are taken and the minima of these difference equations are determined across all positive values of x (one equation for each activity–buffer link). 4) Using the newly developed algorithm for calculation of project durationBased on the determined buffer times, the project duration is calculated as the sum of the buffers and the duration of the last activity.
5) Criticality analysis 5) DifferentiationDifferences are differentiated using equations to confirm the nature of the vertices (set of equations)
6) Final consolidationIn the sixth step, the vertex distances between a neighboring predecessor buffer equation and successor equation are compared to identify the overall minimum distance (set of equations).
7) Criticality analysisThe equivalent of a critical path from CPM is calculated (set of equations).

Time–cost performance for civil engineering projects in the expanded Hong Kong sample

Project type K B R Total projects
Total civil works 250.5 0.206 0.79 148
Roadworks 251.2 0.225 0.87 57
Other civil works 262.5 0.185 0.69 91
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Engineering, Introductions and Overviews, other