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2019 European Parliament Election in Poland: who benefitted from the record increase in turnout?

Magdalena Skorupska
Magdalena Skorupska
   | 16 apr 2022
Miscellanea Geographica's Cover Image
Miscellanea Geographica
Volume 26 (2022): Numero 3 (July 2022)
Thematic Issue: Contemporary world political geography - unity in diversity. Guest Editor: Marcin Solarz
INFORMAZIONI SU QUESTO ARTICOLO
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Pubblicato online: 16 apr 2022
Pagine: 136 - 148
Ricevuto: 25 gen 2021
Accettato: 31 dic 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2022-0001
Parole chiave
© 2022 Magdalena Skorupska, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Figure 1

Electoral turnout in EP elections in Poland’s gminasSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]
Electoral turnout in EP elections in Poland’s gminasSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]

Figure 2

Aggregation of political parties used in the articleSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza
Aggregation of political parties used in the articleSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza

Figure 3

Change in electoral turnout from 2014 to 2019Source: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]
Change in electoral turnout from 2014 to 2019Source: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019]

Figure 4

Change in EP election results from 2014 to 2019: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].
Change in EP election results from 2014 to 2019: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].

Figure 5

Change in EP election results from 2014 and 2019 relative to national average: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].
Change in EP election results from 2014 and 2019 relative to national average: A – support for PiS; B – support for KE; C – turnoutSource: own elaboration based on Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza (in bibliography: Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza [National Electoral Commission, Available from: https://wybory.gov.pl/. [8 June 2019].

Breakdown and comparison of votes cast in the 2019 EP and 2014 EP elections

2014 2019 Difference (2019–2014)
Votes cast 7,301,650 13,760,974 6,459,324
PiS 2,751,682 6,192,780 3,441,098
KE 3,441,861 5,249,935 1,808,074
Other parties 875,942 2,204,596 1,328,654
Invalid votes 232,165 113,663 −118,502

Linear regression model for support for PiS in 2014–19 and support for KE in 2014–19

Voivodeship Coefficientsa,b PiS difference 2014–2019 KE difference 2014–2019
Unstandardised Coefficients Standardised Coefficients Unstandardised Coefficients Standardised Coefficients
B Standard Error Beta B Standard Error Beta
Dolnośląskie, N=169 R2 0.18 0.14 0.16 0.13
Constant −0.236 0.051 0.288 0.062
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.874 0.213 0.366 −0.863 0.231 −0.337
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.064 0.326 −0.026 −0.316 0.351 −0.120
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.491 0.210 −0.177 0.505 0.226 0.170
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.000 0.000 0.086 0.000 0.000 −0.059
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −7.00E-06 0.000 −0.108 1.214E-05 0.000 0.169
2014 party result −0.183 0.064 −0.220 −0.036 0.068 −0.041
Kujawsko-Pomorskie, N=144 R2 0.40 0.36 0.31 0.28
Constant −0.336 0.088 0.474 0.047
difference in turnout 2014–2019 1.665 0.255 0.523 −1.564 0.232 −0.543
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.350 0.411 −0.065 0.097 0.398 0.020
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.111 0.687 −0.012 −0.104 0.664 −0.012
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.054 0.001 0.001 0.050
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −7.944E-06 0.000 −0.055 9.395E-06 0.000 0.071
2014 party result −0.306 0.104 −0.221 −0.092 0.105 −0.066
Łódzkie, N=177 R2 0.13 0.09 0.08 0.04
Constant −0.122 0.054 0.262 0.075
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.338 0.216 0.118 −0.173 0.253 −0.053
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.019 0.392 −0.004 −0.170 0.456 −0.029
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −1.041 0.469 −0.164 0.960 0.548 0.134
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.000 0.001 −0.036 0.000 0.001 0.044
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −7.345E-06 0.000 −0.052 3.046E-07 0.000 0.002
2014 party result −0.281 0.069 −0.301 −0.214 0.074 −0.223
Lubelskie, N=213 R2 0.58 0.56 0.37 0.34
Constant 0.061 0.052 0.511 0.044
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.170 0.190 0.047 −0.215 0.206 −0.065
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 0.791 0.335 0.112 −0.878 0.374 −0.136
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −1.714 0.369 −0.223 1.702 0.417 0.243
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.001 0.001 0.043 −0.001 0.001 −0.055
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 1.918E-07 0.000 0.011 −1.622E-07 0.000 −0.010
2014 party result −0.736 0.054 −0.727 −0.560 0.063 −0.560
Lubuskie, N=82 R2 0.36 0.29 0.24 0.17
Constant −0.227 0.072 0.382 0.068
difference in turnout 2014–2019 1.319 0.273 0.490 −1.151 0.273 −0.464
difference logarithm of in density of franchised voters 2014–2019 0.023 0.021 0.108 −0.009 0.021 −0.047
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.027 0.247 −0.011 0.055 0.246 0.025
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.001 0.001 0.070 0.000 0.001 0.053
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −7.343E-07 0.000 −0.027 1.387E-06 0.000 0.056
2014 party result −0.326 0.095 −0.342 −0.121 0.098 −0.134
Małopolskie, N=182 R2 0.48 0.45 0.28 0.25
Constant 0.120 0.036 0.053 0.057
difference in turnout 2014–2019 −0.415 0.161 −0.157 0.683 0.186 0.264
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 0.596 0.328 0.112 −0.825 0.374 −0.159
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.068 0.193 −0.022 −0.125 0.223 −0.041
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.121 0.002 0.001 0.144
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 2.767E-06 0.000 0.024 −3.099E-06 0.000 −0.028
2014 party result −0.424 0.045 −0.637 −0.218 0.047 −0.369
Mazowieckie, N=314 R2 0.40 0.38 0.33 0.31
Constant −0.216 0.050 0.407 0.046
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.698 0.162 0.226 −0.925 0.192 −0.257
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 1.531 0.222 0.338 −2.140 0.277 −0.405
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −1.257 0.233 −0.259 1.320 0.288 0.233
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.000 0.001 0.020 0.000 0.001 −0.004
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −3.230E-06 0.000 −0.041 4.898E-06 0.000 0.053
2014 party result −0.331 0.050 −0.340 −0.054 0.058 −0.049
Opolskie, N=71 R2 0.33 0.26 0.33 0.25
Constant −0.179 0.090 0.106 0.039
difference in turnout 2014–2019 −0.070 0.223 −0.044 −0.035 0.230 −0.020
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.734 0.286 −0.296 0.817 0.309 0.307
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.885 0.280 −0.348 0.828 0.307 0.302
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.175 0.001 0.001 0.164
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −5.488E-06 0.000 −0.064 6.659E-06 0.000 0.072
2014 party result 0.036 0.105 0.048 0.091 0.112 0.110
Podkarpackie, N=160 R2 0.44 0.41 0.24 0.21
Constant −0.020 0.050 0.319 0.046
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.137 0.200 0.051 −0.186 0.226 −0.069
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.118 0.310 −0.025 −0.040 0.364 −0.008
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.120 0.211 −0.038 0.109 0.252 0.034
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 0.000 0.001 0.028 0.000 0.001 0.026
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 3.163E-07 0.000 0.009 3.436E-07 0.000 0.009
2014 party result −0.441 0.055 −0.640 −0.297 0.062 −0.441
Podlaskie, N=118 R2 0.49 0.46 0.35 0.32
Constant −0.241 0.090 0.507 0.086
difference in turnout 2014–2019 1.035 0.381 0.248 −1.127 0.432 −0.261
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 1.030 0.590 0.143 −1.285 0.684 −0.173
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −2.742 0.690 −0.297 3.067 0.798 0.322
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.039 0.001 0.001 0.067
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 9.003E-06 0.000 0.044 −1.379E-05 0.000 −0.066
2014 party result −0.371 0.061 −0.463 −0.234 0.064 −0.307
Pomorskie, N=123 R2 0.35 0.31 0.25 0.21
Constant −0.260 0.060 0.277 0.042
difference in turnout 2014–2019 1.026 0.203 0.474 −0.836 0.198 −0.421
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.164 0.184 −0.076 0.117 0.180 0.059
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.510 0.257 −0.168 0.497 0.249 0.179
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.111 0.001 0.001 0.073
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 1.191E-06 0.000 0.035 −6.215E-07 0.000 −0.020
2014 party result −0.167 0.068 −0.195 −0.024 0.062 −0.032
Śląskie, N=167 R2 0.17 0.13 0.09 0.06
Constant 0.077 0.054 0.077 0.046
difference in turnout 2014–2019 −0.439 0.176 −0.197 0.494 0.196 0.205
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.229 0.328 −0.054 0.222 0.375 0.048
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.237 0.209 −0.087 0.126 0.235 0.042
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.076 0.001 0.001 0.077
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 1.807E-06 0.000 0.118 −1.775E-06 0.000 −0.107
2014 party result −0.261 0.054 −0.387 −0.159 0.056 −0.237
Świętokrzyskie, N=102 R2 0.55 0.51 0.34 0.29
Constant 0.172 0.092 0.478 0.066
difference in turnout 2014–2019 −0.166 0.267 −0.055 0.177 0.307 0.059
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.397 0.549 −0.056 0.421 0.660 0.059
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.089 0.357 −0.019 −0.114 0.427 −0.024
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.025 0.000 0.002 0.024
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −3.274E-06 0.000 −0.064 1.867E-06 0.000 0.037
2014 party result −0.773 0.088 −0.789 −0.672 0.111 −0.620
Warmińsko-Mazurskie, N=116 R2 0.21 0.160 0.30 0.27
Constant −0.121 0.068 0.396 0.055
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.748 0.252 0.280 −1.117 0.256 −0.389
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.019 0.432 −0.004 −0.582 0.438 −0.119
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.826 0.469 −0.167 1.312 0.471 0.246
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.138 0.001 0.001 0.085
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −3.611E-06 0.000 −0.021 −9.050E-06 0.000 −0.050
2014 party result −0.342 0.095 −0.320 −0.135 0.093 −0.121
Wielkopolskie, N=226 R2 0.24 0.21 0.22 0.19
Constant −0.423 0.070 0.412 0.052
difference in turnout 2014–2019 1.445 0.235 0.420 −1.517 0.239 −0.431
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.102 0.316 −0.022 0.017 0.327 0.004
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −0.378 0.338 −0.069 0.358 0.349 0.064
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.001 0.001 −0.062 0.001 0.001 0.067
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 2.812E-08 0.000 0.000 2.045E-06 0.000 0.019
2014 party result −0.157 0.070 −0.141 0.195 0.073 0.169
Zachodniopomorskie, N=113 R2 0.44 0.41 0.42 0.38
Constant −0.103 0.055 0.442 0.045
difference in turnout 2014–2019 0.798 0.162 0.500 −0.877 0.172 −0.523
difference in logarithm of density of franchised voters 2014–2019 −0.407 0.193 −0.201 0.434 0.208 0.204
difference in standard of living 2014–2019 −1.857 0.446 −0.354 1.824 0.481 0.331
difference in % of regular churchgoers 2014–2017 −0.003 0.001 −0.238 0.003 0.001 0.258
difference in number of franchised voters 2014–2019 −2.465E-06 0.000 −0.049 4.314E-06 0.000 0.081
2014 party result −0.435 0.085 −0.383 −0.340 0.087 −0.296

Declaration of intention to vote in EP elections vs actual turnout in 2004–19

Election year 2004 2009 2014 2019
Declaration of intention to vote in EP election (I am definitely going to vote) 45%* 36% 40% 60%
Actual voter turnout 20.87% 24.53% 23.83% 45.68%
Difference 24.13 p.p. 11.47 p.p. 16.17 p.p. 14.32 p.p.
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