Nominal Convergence Optimization for Romania’s Euro Area Accession: A Linear Programming Approach

This paper evaluates Romania’s progress toward meeting the nominal convergence criteria required for Euro Area accession, employing a linear programming model over the period 2007–2024. The methodology is based on minimizing the weighted sum of absolute deviations from the Maastricht reference values for five key macroeconomic indicators: inflation rate, long-term interest rate, exchange rate volatility, budget deficit, and public debt. By assigning specific weights to each criterion and calculating annual deviation scores, the model offers a synthetic and quantifiable assessment of Romania’s convergence trajectory. The results highlight 2012–2014 as the most favorable period, with minimal deviations and broad macroeconomic stability. In contrast, 2008–2009 and 2021–2022 emerge as periods of substantial misalignment, driven respectively by the global financial crisis and pandemic-related economic shocks. The findings underline inflation and fiscal deficit as the most critical barriers to convergence, while exchange rate volatility and public debt remained within manageable limits. The paper concludes that consistent convergence, rather than episodic compliance, is essential for sustainable Euro adoption, and that linear optimization provides a valuable tool for convergence diagnostics and policy evaluation.