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<p>This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.</p>
</abstract>

This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in Colombia. The Colombian National Statistical Office usually produces estimations of internal migration based on the results of population censuses, but there is a lack of disaggregated information about the main small areas of origin of the population that emigrates from Colombia. The proposed methodology uses frequentist and Bayesian approaches based on a Fay-Herriot model and is illustrated by one example with a dependent variable from the Demographic and Health Survey 2015 and covariables available from the population census 2005. The proposed alternative produces proportion estimates that are consistent with sample sizes and the main internal immigration trends in Colombia. Additionally, the estimated coefficients of variation are lower than 20% for municipalities for both frequentist and Bayesian approaches and large demographically-relevant capital cities and therefore estimates may be considered to be reliable. Finally, we illustrate how the proposed alternative leads to important reductions of the estimated coefficients of variations for the areas with very small sample sizes.

Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

The Miguel Hernández University of Elche (UMH)

Centro de Investigación Operativa, Departamento de Estadistica

Journal of Official Statistics

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

This article proposes a new methodology for estimating the proportions of households that had experience of international migration at the municipal level in...

Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

Pubblicato online: 13 set 2021

Pagine: 771 - 789

Ricevuto: 01 mag 2019

Accettato: 01 mag 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0034

Parole chiave
Small area estimation, international migration, Fay-Herriot model, coefficient of variation, direct estimator, model-based estimator, hierarchical Bayes prediction

© 2021 Jairo Fúquene-Patiño et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Fay-Herriot Model-Based Prediction Alternatives for Estimating Households with Emigrated Members

Pubblicato online: 13 set 2021

Pagine: 771 - 789

Ricevuto: 01 mag 2019

Accettato: 01 mag 2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/jos-2021-0034

Parole chiaveSmall area estimation, international migration, Fay-Herriot model, coefficient of variation, direct estimator, model-based estimator, hierarchical Bayes prediction

© 2021 Jairo Fúquene-Patiño et al., published by Sciendo

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

Parole chiave
Small area estimation, international migration, Fay-Herriot model, coefficient of variation, direct estimator, model-based estimator, hierarchical Bayes prediction