Exploratory Assessment of the Census of Pakistan Using Demographic Analysis

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, particularly in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this article to use demographic analysis to assess the results of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using data from the 1998 census, from all available intercensal surveys, including three rounds of Demographic and Health Survey. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each five first-level subnational entities to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration derived from the analysis of the existing data. We arrive at approximately similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 210 million (95% CI: 203.4–218.9) compared to 207.8 million counted (1.1% difference). However, we found substantial sub-national variations. While there are too many uncertainties in the data used for the reconstruction to be fully confident about them, this analysis should prompt the national and the international community to ensure that a post-enumeration survey and demographic analysis are regular features of census operations of Pakistan in particular, and in developing countries with deficient data as a whole.