Deterrence strategies for a small state: Analysis and survey

Classical deterrence theory has its origins in the era of the Cold War and the nuclear arms race between the USA and the Soviet Union. Therefore, deterrence is mainly studied from the perspective of the superpowers. This study approaches deterrence from the less explored perspective of a small country by analysing academic deterrence literature and further deepening this perspective by means of a survey. As a result, the study produced a new view of how a small state can be positioned in modern deterrence theories, by introducing national and international enabling and preventive factors. The main findings of the research suggest that national enabling factors, such as a strong national defence and the resilience of the society, are important for a small state in terms of compensating for the deficit in influence in relation to superpowers. Limited options for building deterrence can be augmented by means of international enabling factors, such as military and political alliances. Deficits in terms of available military resources and international status could translate into national preventive factors, such as weakness in the eyes of the aggressor. The aggressor’s political intentions and history could appear as international preventive factors if they influence decision-making in an undesirable manner.